Aldon Smith season sack record watch

[valade16]

IAOFM wants PFT to know there’s more to rushing the passer than just sacks


Aldon Smith wants Von Miller to know who leads the league in sacks

Quote:
profootballtalk.nbcsports.com

Miller is a phenomenal player who was last year’s defensive rookie of the year, but Smith is making a strong case that he’s the premier pass rusher from last year’s draft. Smith had 14 sacks last year to Miller’s 11.5, and Smith’s total of 29 sacks in his first 26 NFL games are the most any player has ever had in the first 26 games of his career.

Whether Smith or Miller is the better player may boil down to a matter of personal preference. Suffice to say, both the 49ers and the Broncos are very pleased with their first-round draft picks from last year.

Personal preference - or a willingness to look beyond the simple comfort of a traditional stat - as we were just discussing with our friends Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera.

By PFF's accounting, Von has 61 pressures (13 sacks, 11 hits, 37 hurries) in 663 snaps (9.2%), while Smith has 43 pressures (15 sacks, 9 hits, 19 hurries) in 618 snaps 7.0%). It's not exactly a close call. The site's grades say the same thing - they have Von at +60.1, and Smith at +14.6.

According to Brian Burke, Von also beats Smith in WPA (1.10 to 0.70), EPA (48.0 to 34.5), and Success Count (44 to 37).

So, sure. Miller versus Smith is a matter of personal preference. Or, of thinking versus not thinking.

For an article that claims it comes down to thinking vs not thinking, it sure left a lot of intelligent thought out.

First, a hit or a hurry is no guarantee that it negatively affected the other teams ability to gain yards. A hit could come just after a QB threw a TD pass. Heck, Julius Peppers had 2 QB hurries on Kaepernick Monday Night. The result? 2/2 for 80 yards.

Without some sort of actual analysis on how many of those QB hits or hurries resulted in negative plays we cannot determine if Von Miller has made anymore positive Defensive plays than Aldon.

If my assumption is correct and the success count is the number of plays that resulted in a positive outcome for the defense is correct, it shows the true ridiculousness of the article.

Von Miller leads 44 to 37, but he has more snaps, so he has a "success" 6.6% of the time. Aldon has a "success" 6.0% of the time. A lot closer at first glance. But if you look at Von Miller's successes relative to his actual Sacks/Pressures/Hits you'll see his pressure results in a success 72% of the time, where as Aldon's is at 86%.

If I'm misinterpreting that stat, please let me know.

Additionally, if you can provide anything that shows his hits/pressures actually benefited the defense, I'd love to see it.

Personally, I know the only sure fire way to know whether your pressure negatively impacted the offense. It's called a sack. And Aldon seems to have a lot of those...

[richiesaurus310]

Got Drew Brees, now up to 16.

[richiesaurus310]

Got brees again with justin smith, now 16.5

[NormSizedMidget]

Got brees again with justin smith, now 16.5

Even betta baby!

[Dr Cyanide 28]

Even betta baby!

hahahahahaha

[NormSizedMidget]

hahahahahaha

Glad someone got that joke and enjoyed it.

[Dr Cyanide 28]

Glad someone got that joke and enjoyed it.

fricking hilarious lol im still laughing at it

[Wrench]

Tell me when he is a few sacks away, not 7 away.

[richiesaurus310]

Tell me when he is a few sacks away, not 7 away.

He's only 6.5 away from breaking it and we still play the Rams, Dolphins, and Cardinals....

[RedandGold_35]

With the teams we play its possible, still a bit of a way off, but not many thought he'd get one in the NO game either. Be great to have that record in SF tho.

[OREcoast49er]

Tell me when he is a few sacks away, not 7 away.

6.5 away with 5 games to play. 3 teams pretty much don't have o-lines. He'll, he could get 3-4 against Arizona alone.

[Baller1]

I think he'll get it. Especially with some favorable games to end the season.

[Austeezy]

He'll be in the 20's by season's end

[bosox3431]

So because Miller has more hurries than Smith in 45 more snaps, while being close to hits and beaten in sacks, he's far and away better. Riiiiiight. Tackles are also separated by a very slim margin. So to recap, in exactly 45 more snaps played than Smith, while being statistically equal or beaten in all categories but one by Smith, he's better.

Apparently you're not familiar with what a percentage is are you?

For an article that claims it comes down to thinking vs not thinking, it sure left a lot of intelligent thought out.

First, a hit or a hurry is no guarantee that it negatively affected the other teams ability to gain yards. A hit could come just after a QB threw a TD pass. Heck, Julius Peppers had 2 QB hurries on Kaepernick Monday Night. The result? 2/2 for 80 yards.

Without some sort of actual analysis on how many of those QB hits or hurries resulted in negative plays we cannot determine if Von Miller has made anymore positive Defensive plays than Aldon.

If my assumption is correct and the success count is the number of plays that resulted in a positive outcome for the defense is correct, it shows the true ridiculousness of the article.

Von Miller leads 44 to 37, but he has more snaps, so he has a "success" 6.6% of the time. Aldon has a "success" 6.0% of the time. A lot closer at first glance. But if you look at Von Miller's successes relative to his actual Sacks/Pressures/Hits you'll see his pressure results in a success 72% of the time, where as Aldon's is at 86%.

If I'm misinterpreting that stat, please let me know.

Additionally, if you can provide anything that shows his hits/pressures actually benefited the defense, I'd love to see it.

Personally, I know the only sure fire way to know whether your pressure negatively impacted the offense. It's called a sack. And Aldon seems to have a lot of those...

Miller leads him in epa, wpa and success count. Which basically shows what you're asking.

[manbearchef]

He could very well end up with the record. He has a hell of a team surrounding him, so he'll likely be in great position to get it. His defense should be capable of holding a lead against the teams they play, so he'll be able to focus on the pass-rush late in the game.