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  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    That is ridiculous. If a pitcher ****s up his arm permanently, his career is done. If a pitcher suddenly becomes wild, they are ineffective and are busts. If a pitcher doesn't develop his secondaries properly, he's a pen arm/bust. All that, and they have to prove they can pitch in the big leagues.

    Much less risk with hitters. Hard to see any injury that affects one's ability to hit a baseball. All they have to prove is if they can hit MLB pitching. That's it.

    BTW, I'd like for you to respond to my reasoning of my trade scenario I posted a few mins ago.

    Have you bothered to read any post I've made in the past hour, or are you just wandering through this thread with blinders on?

    The point was made, Pitchers are being handled better now than they were 10+ years ago. The minor league innings limits are winning ideas that are preserving arms and dramatically decreasing injury rates/increasing prospect success rates.

    Try reading before posted. Walk before you run.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by WrightStuff82 View Post
    Have you bothered to read any post I've made in the past hour, or are you just wandering through this thread with blinders on?

    The point was made, Pitchers are being handled better now than they were 10+ years ago. The minor league innings limits are winning ideas that are preserving arms and dramatically decreasing injury rates/increasing prospect success rates.

    Try reading before posted. Walk before you run.
    Preventing arm injuries doesn't attest for the pitcher's ability to make adjustments as he sees better hitters moving up through a minor league system.

    They still have to learn against being wild, inconsistent, and possess the "stuff" (along with mental makeup) to make it/succeed in the majors.

    Those are independent issues a pitcher faces in his development regardless of an innings limit, rate of progression, and protection from injury.
    Last edited by metswon69; 11-26-2012 at 05:33 AM.

  3. #153
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    The problem with failing pitcher gap that PREVIOUSLY existed was because of injuries. When you discount injuries from even the 14 years ago era, the success rate is identical. More pitchers got injured than hitters. You'll always have guys who fail to learn how to pitch, just like you have guys who fail to learn how to hit.

    Pitching injuries have been on the decline with pitch count control, and the gap is shrinking. It's not rocket science.

    The old axiom of "Pitching prospects are more likely to bust than Hitting prospects" is dead.
    Last edited by WrightStuff82; 11-26-2012 at 01:44 AM.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by WrightStuff82 View Post
    The problem with failing pitcher gap was injuries. You'll always have guys who fail to learn how to pitch, just like you have guys who fail to learn how to hit.
    I am sure that was a big part of it on both sides but sometimes guys with great talent don't necessarily equate to great players.

    We see it often enough.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by WrightStuff82 View Post
    The problem with failing pitcher gap that PREVIOUSLY existed was because of injuries. When you discount injuries from even the 14 years ago era, the success rate is identical. More pitchers got injured than hitters. You'll always have guys who fail to learn how to pitch, just like you have guys who fail to learn how to hit.

    Pitching injuries have been on the decline with pitch count control, and the gap is shrinking. It's not rocket science.

    The old axiom of "Pitching prospects are more likely to bust than Hitting prospects" is dead.
    All your BP article proved is that PECOTA isn't as reliable a source in evaluating pitching prospects that Baseball America is.

    Baseball America also had a much, much smaller sample size of prospective pitchers on that list.

    It's still a flawed science, especially when Justin Jones and Yusmeiro Petit are "sure things" over Clayton Kershaw.

    And both those guys pitched to innings limits.

    Sometimes they don't have the mental makeup, stuff, or ability to adjust as they progress and that's another major reason why pitchers don't succeed.
    Last edited by metswon69; 11-26-2012 at 04:59 AM.

  6. #156
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    It's not a rout, but the Baseball America list is pretty clearly better. They make up for lost ground by nabbing pitchers like Hughes, Reyes, and Sowers, whereas guys like Papelbon and Bailey remained completely off PECOTA's radar screen. While each list had its share of misses (Dallas Braden, Dustin McGowan), BA's "hits" (like Adam Loewen and Adam Miller) tended to be a lot better.
    Even Silver admits as much in the article.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by WrightStuff82 View Post
    Have you bothered to read any post I've made in the past hour, or are you just wandering through this thread with blinders on?

    The point was made, Pitchers are being handled better now than they were 10+ years ago. The minor league innings limits are winning ideas that are preserving arms and dramatically decreasing injury rates/increasing prospect success rates.

    Try reading before posted. Walk before you run.
    There is no substantial evidence that innings limits protect pitchers. Pitchers are more risky than hitters period. More has to go right for a pitcher to be successful in the big leagues compared to hitters.

  8. #158
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    I'm sorry, but a guy who can straight up mash will hit in the big leagues too. A guy with an overpowering fastball and breaking ball still has to find the plate consistently and minimize mistakes over the middle of the plate.

  9. 11-26-2012, 02:23 AM

  10. 11-26-2012, 02:24 AM

  11. 11-26-2012, 02:34 AM

  12. 11-26-2012, 02:52 AM

  13. #159
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    Good one.

    I've yet to hear why my trade proposal of Dickey, Wheeler, Kirk for Gordon and Myers is a bad one. And zOMG pitching is better than hitting is not an acceptable answer.

  14. #160
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    I see WrightStuff has made his way back to the forum...

  15. #161
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    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  16. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    I'm sorry, but a guy who can straight up mash will hit in the big leagues too. A guy with an overpowering fastball and breaking ball still has to find the plate consistently and minimize mistakes over the middle of the plate.
    Duh!

    Are you saying that a guy with an overpowering fastball and breaking ball, who has shown great control, like maybe 1.5 or 2.0 BB/9 in his minor league career may not be able to find the plate in the majors? or with a sub 1.0 WHIP and less than 0.4 HR/9 allowed suddenly will start making mistakes and leave balls out over the plate?

    The same holds true for pitchers as it does for hitters. The greater their success in the minors, the higher the probability of success in the majors.
    Former B'klyn Dodger fan. Mets Maniac since 1962.

  17. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunbummin View Post
    Duh!

    Are you saying that a guy with an overpowering fastball and breaking ball, who has shown great control, like maybe 1.5 or 2.0 BB/9 in his minor league career may not be able to find the plate in the majors? or with a sub 1.0 WHIP and less than 0.4 HR/9 allowed suddenly will start making mistakes and leave balls out over the plate?

    The same holds true for pitchers as it does for hitters. The greater their success in the minors, the higher the probability of success in the majors.
    Rick Ankiel looked like a sure thing top pitching prospect until he just suddenly got wild. Many pitchers fail for reasons that are not known.

  18. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    Rick Ankiel looked like a sure thing top pitching prospect until he just suddenly got wild. Many pitchers fail for reasons that are not known.
    Ankiel always had a wild side, in '99 he averaged 4.1 walks per game in the minors and in 2000 he averaged 4.6 in the majors.


    "You don't know how to drink. Your whole generation, you drink for the wrong reasons. My generation, we drink because it's good, because it feels better than unbuttoning your collar, because we deserve it. We drink because it's what men do."

  19. #165
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    That article mentioned Justin Jones and Yusmeiro Petit as "sure things" over Clayton Kershaw.

    Petit had the numbers, had the stuff, had the control, then was traded to the Marlins and never was able to put it together.

    Jones had control issues that eventually sidelined his career.

    It's not always about injuries either.

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