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  1. #16
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Queens, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Sandman View Post
    No doubt -- when those unique players come along like Strasburg or Harper or Straw or A-rod or Griffey etc.. they are above and beyond. Not every year the #1 pick is a big prize, though.

    Like this year, any number of guys could have gone number one -- combine that with signability & affordability and talent does not equal draft position one bit.

    I don't disagree that you have the best odds when you pick #1, but in Baseball, the odds aren't overwhelming to the point that its necessary to tank. Especially when the notion here is that we need to be in the bottom 10% instead of the bottom 15-20%.

    Management is ****ing up just as hard if they can't get quality players to build around in the top 10 or top 15.
    I agree. But Chipper was the clear-cut #1 pick either, the Braves wanted to draft Todd Van Poppel. The best part about having the 1st pick, is that you can pick whatever player you want because they are all available.

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Considering the Mets are drafting for positional needs it seems in this upcoming draft (but pitching still being a possibility)..

    That is a lot of data to sift through. But if we focus on the overall success and failure rates, we can see some huge differences between position players and pitchers. Position players ranked in the top 20 had a very high success rate at about 60%, while pitchers in the same group only succeeded about 40% of the time. And position players in the higher ranks level out at a success rate in the mid-to-high 20’s. The success rate for pitchers in the higher ranks levels out in the mid-to-high teens. Because of the smaller samples you get to when you break down deciles into the "superior" group, the variance is high. But we can see in the lower ranks, about 40% of position players become stars, while for pitchers it is more like 20-25%. And while a significant percentage of position players in the higher ranks become stars (as much as 23% in the 70-79 decile), the percentages for pitchers in the higher ranks are consistently under 10%.
    About 70% of Baseball America top 100 prospects fail.

    Position player prospects succeed much more often than pitching prospects.

    About 60% of position players ranked in Baseball America’s top 20 succeed in the majors.

    About 40% of pitchers ranked in the top 20 succeed in the majors.

    About 30% of position players ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 36% to about 25%)

    About 20% of pitchers ranked 21-100 succeed in the majors (with the success rate declining over that ranking range from about 22% to about 15%)

    The success rate of prospects (both position player and pitchers) is nearly flat and relatively undifferentiated for players ranked 41-100, and especially those ranked 61-100.

    Corner infield prospects and catchers are the most likely to succeed in the majors, but outfielders, third basemen and shortstops are the most likely to become stars.

    Second basemen and pitchers are the least likely prospects to succeed in the majors or to become stars.

    Prospect success rates have not improved much over time and there is little data to support the contention that prospects are more likely to succeed now than they have in the past.
    Rebuilding through the draft is a lot more difficult than it seems considering the rate of prospect failure.

    Although position players are more of an exact science it's still not a guarantee they pan out or project to be All Stars drafted in a top 5 or 10 slot.

    The Rays had top 5 picks consistently over an 11 year period, that's the type of losing it would take to possibly accumulate enough talent to win (if the Mets were attempting that route) and that's only if we have more success than failure in making those picks.
    Last edited by metswon69; 11-18-2012 at 06:31 PM.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    North Sentinel Island
    You don't know what is going to happen 2 years down the line. Look at how much baseball, or just your team itself, can change over the course of one season. Anything can happen. Nobody expected the A's to taste anything close to the playoffs, and the same can be said for the O's. I'm not saying that will happen to the Mets, but anything is possible. You can't look at what you have now, and try to judge what your team may be like in 2 years.

    You have young pitching. Very good young pitching. If Niese doesn't get traded, and Wheeler does pan out, which I think he will, you could have a rotation of Wheeler, Harvery, Niese for years to come. That's not bad at all. In fact, if Wheeler does become your ace, Harvey continues pitching how he has, and Niese, who I still think hasn't shown full potential, continues to progress, this could be a deadly rotation in a couple years.

    What the Mets really need is hitters. And what they desperately need is a bullpen than can close the door.

    Mets fans these days are a lot more pessimistic than they need to be. It's not THAT bad. It isn't good, but it can only get better. Once some of these remaining contracts leave the books, and the team has some more financial flexibility, as well as youth coming up, it could be a recipe for good things to come.
    Last edited by Yankees90.; 11-18-2012 at 06:13 PM.
    FC Bayern Munchen

    New York Yankees

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    I agree they should trade those guys and rebuild. Three years from now, Flores will likely be about as good an overall 3B as Wright (he'll be 32). We need other bats to go with him.

    I'm not that keen though on counting on high draft picks. I just don't see a need for the team to struggle that badly in this market. Guard those high picks you do get, and use them wisely, but I don't want to see a team that loses 95 games for multiple years.

    I would aim for a quick turnaround. Get young players in those trades who can help soon, and then start spending again in another year or two. We are going to need to add at least two premium players from outside the organization to have a shot. Maybe more if you are trading Wright and Dickey.
    Last edited by acerimusdux; 11-18-2012 at 06:42 PM.

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    The Heart of Long Island
    Quote Originally Posted by YoungStuna28 View Post
    That's NOT true. We've had the 13th pick in 2011, the 12th pick this year, and will have the 11th pick next year. We haven't had a top 10 pick since Harvey(7th).

    This is the career WAR by pick in MLB draft history:

    1. 779.3
    2. 495.8
    3. 428.2
    4. 490.3
    5. 295.3
    6. 450.1
    7. 216.5
    8. 201.5
    9. 218.1
    10. 385.1
    11. 94.1
    12. 246.2
    13. 251.4
    14. 210.6
    15. 229.7
    16. 232.7
    17. 220.5
    18. 102.3
    19. 307.7
    20. 317.1

    So the #1 pick is clearly the best, but there are still flops and disappointments.
    Don't we draft 11 this year? ****

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Mar 2012

    That Would Weakend Us More

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Ewing33 View Post
    This team isn't going to compete with anyone but the Marlins. We have 2 great players and they might not even be here in 2 years.. Think about it and be realistic, this team isn't going any where.

    By trading Wright and Dickey, we get top prospects and this will be bad to say but losing games we get top dominating propects.

    Follow the Nationals footsteps, and we will be a playoff team in the future. And yes that means 100+ loss seasons.

    If they do not follow this then yay we'll be medicore for a long long time.

    You guys need to understand that and I know but posting this thread you guys are going to bash me in, but its the truth.
    I'm not a big get rid of your talent for minor leaguers fan. It is extremely hard to make it to the show. Much better to build around what you got. It would set your franchise back decades doing that. But since we do not have any owners at the current time you can pretty much gut your team because your not gonna keep anyone around.

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