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  1. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Lol no, and yet another poor attempt at playing obtuse. You can't walk in all holier than thou accusing people of arguing points you are not making and then pulling this kind of nonsense. That is what trolling is actually...
    WTF?

    This is literally what was said

    "But there is also a good chance that you overpay for Bourn's decline"


    And that's what you argued. You can't be this thick. Nobody can be. That's what I said, you argued that it isn't true, and now are saying that isn't what I said?


    Gato, you make no attempts to actually discuss anything, you just argue for the sake of fighting, let it go.

  2. #917
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    There are plenty of good free agent options that would be really good signings for the Cubs.

    Like Grady Sizemore for example. He is going to be cheap, he is young, if he plays well, then you have an asset. If he doesn't, oh well, it's a cheap risk for a few bucks. Sign him and plenty of other guys. Hoping that he turns into his former healthy self. If he doesn't, oh well, that's why you sign plenty of them.

    Liriano, Brett Myers, Jurrjens etc.

    Those types of players. Guys who you can get on one year deals for really cheap, if any of them improve/play to their previous levels, then you have some great assets. And it gives your young guys time to improve/get better, and continue to improve the farm system and have no bad commitments that will prohibit the Cubs from buying the free agents you will really need when that time comes.

  3. #918
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    Ah, you are actually correct on this one. My b Jeffy boy. See, it's not hard to admit being wrong.

    There's a much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much better chance of landing a Mike Welker than there is a chance of landing a Jordan Zimmerman. Insanely better chance...If you have any data against that, then please feel free to show it.

    Signing Bourn would not stop signing any of those guys in the above post.

  4. #919
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Ah, you are actually correct on this one. My b Jeffy boy. See, it's not hard to admit being wrong.

    There's a much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much better chance of landing a Mike Welker than there is a chance of landing a Jordan Zimmerman. Insanely better chance...If you have any data against that, then please feel free to show it.

    Signing Bourn would not stop signing any of those guys in the above post.
    Obviously there is. Most prospects fail, especially later round draft picks. That's why it's good to stockpile and get as many as you can and invest in a really strong scouting system to do your best to succeed in the draft.

    More so, the issue isn't even the draft pick alone. It's that Michael Bourn is looking for, and has a decent shot at getting, a 5/80-90 deal. If that's backloaded like most deals, that's probably something like (just guessing here)

    2013 - 13
    2014 - 15
    2015 - 17
    2016 - 19
    2017 - 21

    Just guessing here, and I picked the middle price on that guess (5/85) you are welcomed to disagree with how much he will get of course.

    By the time the Cubs are likely competitive, let's say 2015, he is owed 3/57. And he is certainly not getting any better.

    He is likely no longer even a 3 WAR outfielder by that point. He isn't likely to age very well, and his comps are scary close to Chone Figgins when he signed with Seattle.

    It would be best if that 57 million over the next 3 years could go to a player in 2015 that is a free agent that can really improve the team.

    You also get to give some guys a chance that maybe wouldn't get it otherwise. And you get to keep that draft pick, regardless if you think it isn't important, it's a cumulative value.


    History just hasn't shown good results to teams that basically attempt to assemble their teams in free agency. Jayson Werth with the Nationals and Barry Zito with the Giants are the only two recent one's I can find, and neither of them had much to do with the teams success, but rather just so happened to be there when great young players were graduated anyway.

  5. #920
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    Obviously there is. Most prospects fail, especially later round draft picks. That's why it's good to stockpile and get as many as you can and invest in a really strong scouting system to do your best to succeed in the draft.
    1. Then enough with the 2nd round pick being some huge major key to rebuilding if it's obvious, which it is.

    2. The Cubs will have spent close to 80 million dollars on prospects in the past 3 years by the time the 2013 amateur period is over. Stockpiling prospects is almost literally all they have been doing on the talent acquisition front since even before Epstein/Hoyer were hired.

    More so, the issue isn't even the draft pick alone.
    Yes, it's also the player you can acquire with it. The chances of that player being of significance is insanely low, which you have shown nothing to disprove.

    History just hasn't shown good results to teams that basically attempt to assemble their teams in free agency.
    Nonsense, but please show the data. You forgot CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett helping bring a WS victory to the Yankees in 2009.

    Jayson Werth was one of the Nats' 3 best hitters last year. That probably has a little to do with their success. He did not just magically happen - he has been a good player for a while now who added to the talent level of a roster that happens to have been able to draft Strasburg and Harper back to back.

    Still looking forward to this data that shows the value of a 2nd round pick in the rebuilding process.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-21-2012 at 01:31 AM.

  6. #921
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    SenorGato=Slide Castro Slide?

  7. #922
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    1. Then enough with the 2nd round pick being some huge major key to rebuilding if it's obvious, which it is.

    2. The Cubs will have spent close to 80 million dollars on prospects in the past 3 years by the time the 2013 amateur period is over. Stockpiling prospects is almost literally all they have been doing on the talent acquisition front since even before Epstein/Hoyer were hired.
    And they shouldn't stop.

    Yes, it's also the player you can acquire with it. The chances of that player being of significance is insanely low, which you have shown nothing to disprove.
    I haven't attempted to. There is a value in this pick, and it shouldn't just be automatically ignored.


    Nonsense, but please show the data. You forgot CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett helping bring a WS victory to the Yankees in 2009.
    The 09 Yankees?

    The team with homegrown players such as:
    Jorge Posada
    Derek Jeter
    Robinson Cano
    Melky Caberea
    Brett Gardner
    Andy Pettitte
    Joba Chamberlain
    Mariano Rivera
    Phil Hughes
    Phil Coke
    David Robertson

    to name a few

    They had more players they developed on this team than guys they went out and paid.

    Sabathia, Burnett, and Tex were added to complete the team and to replace Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Mike Mussina, and Carl Pavano.

    This was an 89 win team that added three free agents. The 09 Yankees were not assembled in free agency.


    Still looking forward to this data that shows the value of a 2nd round pick in the rebuilding process.
    You literally quoted it with the above paragraph;
    "More so, the issue isn't even the draft pick alone."

  8. #923
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    And they shouldn't stop.
    Giving up a 2nd round pick for a starting ML CFer does not stop the process.

    I haven't attempted to. There is a value in this pick, and it shouldn't just be automatically ignored.
    I have shown you the value of the pick with various sources and links. You simply repeat that there is value and that it is important. Which would a competent, logical human being take more serious? Which should they take more seriously?

    The 09 Yankees?
    All you did was point out that teams have to field 25 players to me, which I think is a little obvious.

    This was an 89 win team that added three free agents. The 09 Yankees were not assembled in free agency.
    Nobody team is assembled in FA Jeffy. FA is one of the three major routes to acquiring talent along with trades and the amateur signing/drafting period. Using all three routes >>>>>> one route. The Nationals signing Werth and the Giants signing Zito did not halt the development of their young arms and players, but rather sped up the process (well, in Werth's case anyway) of fielding a competitive team and franchise at the MLB level.

    You literally quoted it with the above paragraph;
    "More so, the issue isn't even the draft pick alone."
    That is not data Jeffy, that is more of you repeating and/or stating your opinion.

  9. #924
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    The 2009 Yankees (along with every successful Yankee squad of the past 15+ years) were driven by their homegrown core and supplemented by free agents. For all their repute as huge spenders, they've done a remarkable job of drafting and developing great players.

    Almost all of the perennial power type teams have won with a similar formula.

    Trying to fill most of your holes from without is not a recipe for long term success. Jim Hendry tried that for years with very mixed (and mostly bad) results.

    And Jayson Werth (who missed 81 games and posted a whopping 1 WAR) was not a huge cog in the 2012 Nationals machine. Werth was a gross overpay who while a nice player, isn't close to being worth what the Nats are paying him. He's a very poor example of an expensive pickup that contributed heavily to success.

  10. #925
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Giving up a 2nd round pick for a starting ML CFer does not stop the process.



    I have shown you the value of the pick with various sources and links. You simply repeat that there is value and that it is important. Which would a competent, logical human being take more serious? Which should they take more seriously?
    And when you behave this way all you do is hurt your ability to look like a logical poster.

    All you did was point out that teams have to field 25 players to me, which I think is a little obvious.
    Okay, how about we just list their starters:

    Drafted/ammy signed by Yankees:
    Posada
    Cano
    Jeter
    Cabrera

    The FA's:
    Swisher
    Matusi
    Tex
    Damon

    Trades:
    A-Rod, who they gave up Soriano to land

    There are your 9 position players

    Now 5 starters and a closer:
    Developed:
    Chamberlain
    Pettitte
    Rivera

    FA:
    CC
    Burnett

    Nobody team is assembled in FA Jeffy. FA is one of the three major routes to acquiring talent along with trades and the amateur signing/drafting period. Using all three routes >>>>>> one route. The Nationals signing Werth and the Giants signing Zito did not halt the development of their young arms and players, but rather sped up the process (well, in Werth's case anyway) of fielding a competitive team and franchise at the MLB level.
    And one is by far the least efficient way to do it.

    How in the hell did Werth speed up the process? He only played half of 2012

    That is not data Jeffy, that is more of you repeating and/or stating your opinion.
    I don't have to provide you data that the second round pick has value. It clearly does. Plenty have turned into fantastic big leaguers in baseball history. It's also not the main point here.

    This is about a philosophy. Which it would appear is the intent of his thread. Signing expensive free agents is what got the Cubs into the position they are in today. As Cubs fans, I would assume you guys would be the first to realize this. Most Cubs fans I know in person are soberly aware of this and see the vital importance in focusing on the farm system. Signing Edwin Jackson does not abandon this strategy as it doesn't do the things that hinder this philosophy. This was a fine enough signing. Not great, not good, not bad, not horrible. Pretty much middle of the road, solid.

    You don't have to like the philosophy, but more teams that stick to this philosophy have shown sustained success than when teams try to buy free agents.

    Hell, look at the two teams that are perennially leading the NL Central in the Cards and Reds. Neither can support the sort of payroll the Cubs can, but both have a strong focus on their farm system to develop their talents for them. Free agents are stop gaps, and the farm system is used to either trade for talent, or to graduate long term talent. And they are the two best teams in the division.

    Small market teams have shown success with it, large market teams have shown success with it. And rarely do you see a team that can just sign expensive pieces before they are competitive and it work. It usually gets in the way.

    You don't have to agree with this philosophy, as there are plenty of ways to build a team. This is an efficient way though, and it has shown plenty of success.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-21-2012 at 02:01 AM.

  11. #926
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    Trying to fill most of your holes from without is not a recipe for long term success. Jim Hendry tried that for years with very mixed (and mostly bad) results.
    Not only is this false, but most rosters will have more players from without than not. Hendry worked very hard to fill the roster with internal prospects - unfortunately as prospects are wont to do many fell to injury or poor performance or both. The Cubs of the early 2000's were renowned for their farm system.

    Jayson Werth also put up an .827 OPS, good for 3rd in the lineup. He put up a .387 OBP, good for first in their lineup. That 1 fWAR is severely dragged down by his defensive numbers, extreme career lows from a guy who has usually been a good defensive OFer. Hell of a failure...
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-21-2012 at 02:10 AM.

  12. #927
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Not only is this false, but most rosters will have more players from without than not. Hendry worked very hard to fill the roster with internal prospects - unfortunately as prospects are wont to do many fell to injury or poor performance or both. The Cubs of the early 2000's were renowned for their farm system.

    Jayson Werth also put up an .827 OPS, good for 3rd in the lineup. He put up a .387 OBP, good for first in their lineup. That 1 fWAR is severely dragged down by his defensive numbers, extreme career lows from a guy who has usually been a good defensive OFer. Hell of a failure...
    He created 52 runs, 7th on the team and 179th best in baseball tied with Rual Ibanez, Juan Pierre, and Mark Ellis.


    And he only had a 0.6 rWAR and 2.0 WARP, so you can't just blame UZR.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 12-21-2012 at 02:13 AM.

  13. #928
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    I don't have to provide you data that the second round pick has value. It clearly does.
    Yep, this pretty much sums up how debating with you goes. It clearly has less value than you choose to give it, all the numbers support this opinion, and you have offered nothing but individual instances using your gift of hindsight to counter this.

  14. #929
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Yep, this pretty much sums up how debating with you goes. It clearly has less value than you choose to give it, all the numbers support this opinion, and you have offered nothing but individual instances using your gift of hindsight to counter this.
    And with your attitude, you wonder why our debates end like this every time.


    I just provided you a list of notable second round picks. Not all second round picks will be great, plenty will fail. I don't know how many times I have to say that. But you also have a list that includes at least 10 likely future hall of famers. There have been plenty of good second round picks, and plenty of high priced free agents that regress and then suck. What kind of data do you even want? I mean Jesus Christ. We know that there are a good number of second round picks that have been successful.

    Nothing can make you happy in a debate senor. You fight for the sake of fighting and cherry pick one sentence out of an entire argument to beat into the ground.

  15. #930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    He created 52 runs, 7th on the team and 179th best in baseball tied with Rual Ibanez, Juan Pierre, and Mark Ellis.


    And he only had a 0.6 rWAR and 2.0 WARP, so you can't just blame UZR.
    Yeah I'm sure this has nothing to do with playing time and only 344 PAs. He also put up a .362 wOBA and 128 wRC+, higher than all those players. Both of those numbers are in the top 50 in baseball amongst players with more than 300 PAs. While he was out Xavier Nady got himself 109 PAs putting up a .208 wOBA and 24 wRC+.

    Anyway, this is not what this debate was about. You have successfully wormed your way out of providing any sound argument on the value of a 2nd round pick and why it is higher in your mind than the data suggests, and coincidentally were aided by a some brand new posters in diverting the argument.

    When you have some real information on why the 2nd round pick should be valued as you see it - not your opinion and a bunch of hand picked names of successful 2nd rounders - then I will be glad to read about it.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-21-2012 at 02:22 AM.

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