Organizational Philosophy Discussion Thread

[1972 Cubs]

Well it might still be early, but I am ready to throw in the towel and admit those who feel Theo and Jed plan on being bad again this year to get more high picks again next year, are right. I do not have much hope for this team in 2013. About the best thing I can see from this team this year is they find a few more core pieces. Maybe Jackson comes up and sticks. Visciano proves to be a solid arm, whether it is bullpen or the rotation. Maybe Castillo proves to be a solid everyday catcher and Feldman ends up being solid. IMO this is the best thing that can happen in 2013. I do not necessarily agree with the plan, but I do believe that is what the Cubs FO thinks is the best way to go. If, however, they do add to the core and count on Jackson, Visciano, Castillo and Feldman, I do see 2014 as the year they get serious about fielding a solid team. Youth will be one year closer to the majors, they will have added a lot more quality to the minor league system and they will at least 8 core players to build with (Castro, Visciano, Jackson, Shark, Feldman, Rizzo, Barney, Castillo). Maybe even more if Wood and/or the Cubs add a guy like Marcum/E. Jackson or McCarthy this year and one or both pitchers prove to be a solid middle of the rotation guy. Next off season they would be looking at 2 outfield spots and third base. Maybe another pitcher. But they would definitely have money and they would have a stocked farm team to deal if someone like Stanton became available next year.

What happens if Jackson / Vizacaino . Castillo don't step up and become core pieces ? You have 3 starting pitchers on 1 year deals along with your new RF. You could easily have the situation that the team is not ready to compete and go through another off season of finding stop gaps.

[rcal10]

What happens if Jackson / Vizacaino . Castillo don't step up and become core pieces ? You have 3 starting pitchers on 1 year deals along with your new RF. You could easily have the situation that the team is not ready to compete and go through another off season of finding stop gaps.

Like I said, BEST CASE SCENERIO of 2013. I also said I don't like the plan. The reason I do not like it is because of exactly what you are asking. So, to answer your questions, I have no idea what happens then. Guess it is another bad season in 2014.

[terencem]

If anyone is suddenly realize that it isn't in Hoyer's plans to make the Cubs an 82 win team in 2013, you probably weren't' paying attention during the last 2 months.

[StrandedCub]

If anyone is suddenly realize that it isn't in Hoyer's plans to make the Cubs an 82 win team in 2013, you probably weren't' paying attention during the last 2 months.

Seriously. They really haven't been shy about it. They have actually been quite honest about what they wanted to do this offseason.

[SenorGato]

For me by far the best model for these Cubs is the 90s Yankees.

[SenorGato]

Are those really the only two choices? What constitutes a bad contract? Hell, how many bad players are really here?

In response to:

Quote:

But plenty of bad players.

Which is worse:

good players with bad contracts
or
bad players with good contracts?


Sorry for the format - phone is ****tarded.

[KyleJRM]

Seriously. They really haven't been shy about it. They have actually been quite honest about what they wanted to do this offseason.

Who said anything about sudden? I've been arguing against this plan since before it was officially even the plan. Before Epstein was even hired.

Funny thing, though. I was fooling with with WAR projections and plugging them into a roster today. I thought I had a nicely pessimistic/conservative set of player projections.

The big problem is that it assumes health (especially a bad assumption with our rotation) and doesn't account for a deadline firesale. But anyway, the record it spit out:

80-82.

So much of our badness last year was just a horrorshow, historically bad back of the roster. If you start replacing those with replacement-level players, this team gets mediocre *really* fast.

[Milnertime]

Who said anything about sudden? I've been arguing against this plan since before it was officially even the plan. Before Epstein was even hired.

Funny thing, though. I was fooling with with WAR projections and plugging them into a roster today. I thought I had a nicely pessimistic/conservative set of player projections.

The big problem is that it assumes health (especially a bad assumption with our rotation) and doesn't account for a deadline firesale. But anyway, the record it spit out:

80-82.

So much of our badness last year was just a horrorshow, historically bad back of the roster. If you start replacing those with replacement-level players, this team gets mediocre *really* fast.

Which is why complaining about last year makes even less sense.

You're saying it yourself, improvement to the mean is easier than it seems.

[KyleJRM]

The really bad players didn't just magically appear. Our front office put them on the roster.

And that just shows that the whole "Oh, we're so far away we can't possibly try for good players" is garbage.

[KyleJRM]

Revised projections with the 25-man roster we could build now.

This is on the Baseball-Reference scale that sets replacement level at 53 wins (which means the WAR totals for individual players are a bit lower than you see on many sites.)

Soriano, Baker and Feldman have their projections discounted for risk of injury. The backup outfielder's projection is a little higher than normal to take into account Sappelt's platoon starts. The "various" categories are players beyond the opening day 25-man that will have to make appearances to account for miscellaneous injuries throughout the year.

Soriano(1.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0) (Various backups 0)
Stewart(0.0)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (Valbuena/Clevenger)(0.0) (Various backups -1.0)
Castillo(1.0) (Navarro)(0.0)

Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Baker(1.0)/Feldman(0.5)/Wood(1.0) (Various spot starters -0.5)
Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon (3.0) (Various tag-ins, -0.5)

Total: 23.5 WAR
Projected record: 76-86

[Milnertime]

Seems realistic. I could see a jump up from Garza if he's healthy and here all year and potentially from Schierholtz if his defense is as good as advertised. Nothing huge, but maybe a UZR inflated extra .5-1 win.

Samardzija could also be a candidate for a huge year given his skill set and if the ability to throw strikes consistently sticks for him. 98 MPH fastballs don't grow on trees.

I could also see negative value out of Stewart and Clevenger/Valbuena.

[A New Era]

another boring year. Oh well atleast I can get accustomed to Deshies or w/e, and hope they don't **** up '13 trade deadline like they did the last one.

[Cubsrule]

Revised projections with the 25-man roster we could build now.

This is on the Baseball-Reference scale that sets replacement level at 53 wins (which means the WAR totals for individual players are a bit lower than you see on many sites.)

Soriano, Baker and Feldman have their projections discounted for risk of injury. The backup outfielder's projection is a little higher than normal to take into account Sappelt's platoon starts. The "various" categories are players beyond the opening day 25-man that will have to make appearances to account for miscellaneous injuries throughout the year.

Soriano(1.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0) (Various backups 0)
Stewart(0.0)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (Valbuena/Clevenger)(0.0) (Various backups -1.0)
Castillo(1.0) (Navarro)(0.0)

Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Baker(1.0)/Feldman(0.5)/Wood(1.0) (Various spot starters -0.5)
Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon (3.0) (Various tag-ins, -0.5)

Total: 23.5 WAR
Projected record: 76-86

Alright so what you do differently if you were Epstein or Hoyer as far as signing players go and who would you sign?

[KyleJRM]

Right now? From the beginning of this offseason? From the beginning of last offseason?

[Cubsrule]

Right now? From the beginning of this offseason? From the beginning of last offseason?

This one, I am not saying that you can't do it, I just want to see what you come up with. I like a lot of people am not real happy about this offseason, but there is still time and given the fact that we got a future star at first base last offseason and found some real value in players like Maholm and Dejesus, i'd say it was a success.