If anyone is suddenly realize that it isn't in Hoyer's plans to make the Cubs an 82 win team in 2013, you probably weren't' paying attention during the last 2 months.
For me by far the best model for these Cubs is the 90s Yankees.
Are those really the only two choices? What constitutes a bad contract? Hell, how many bad players are really here?
In response to:
But plenty of bad players.
Which is worse:
good players with bad contracts
bad players with good contracts?
Sorry for the format - phone is ****tarded.
Funny thing, though. I was fooling with with WAR projections and plugging them into a roster today. I thought I had a nicely pessimistic/conservative set of player projections.
The big problem is that it assumes health (especially a bad assumption with our rotation) and doesn't account for a deadline firesale. But anyway, the record it spit out:
So much of our badness last year was just a horrorshow, historically bad back of the roster. If you start replacing those with replacement-level players, this team gets mediocre *really* fast.
The really bad players didn't just magically appear. Our front office put them on the roster.
And that just shows that the whole "Oh, we're so far away we can't possibly try for good players" is garbage.
Revised projections with the 25-man roster we could build now.
This is on the Baseball-Reference scale that sets replacement level at 53 wins (which means the WAR totals for individual players are a bit lower than you see on many sites.)
Soriano, Baker and Feldman have their projections discounted for risk of injury. The backup outfielder's projection is a little higher than normal to take into account Sappelt's platoon starts. The "various" categories are players beyond the opening day 25-man that will have to make appearances to account for miscellaneous injuries throughout the year.
Soriano(1.5)/DeJesus(1.0)/Schierholtz(1.0) (Sappelt/Campana) (1.0) (Various backups 0)
Stewart(0.0)/Castro (4.0)/Barney(2.0)/Rizzo(4.0) (Valbuena/Clevenger)(0.0) (Various backups -1.0)
Garza(2.0)/Samardzija(2.5)/Baker(1.0)/Feldman(0.5)/Wood(1.0) (Various spot starters -0.5)
Marmol/Fujikawa/Camp/Russell/Dolis/Belivaeu/Rondon (3.0) (Various tag-ins, -0.5)
Total: 23.5 WAR
Projected record: 76-86
Seems realistic. I could see a jump up from Garza if he's healthy and here all year and potentially from Schierholtz if his defense is as good as advertised. Nothing huge, but maybe a UZR inflated extra .5-1 win.
Samardzija could also be a candidate for a huge year given his skill set and if the ability to throw strikes consistently sticks for him. 98 MPH fastballs don't grow on trees.
I could also see negative value out of Stewart and Clevenger/Valbuena.
another boring year. Oh well atleast I can get accustomed to Deshies or w/e, and hope they don't **** up '13 trade deadline like they did the last one.
Right now? From the beginning of this offseason? From the beginning of last offseason?
Major props to rdwilliamson