Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 45 of 97 FirstFirst ... 3543444546475595 ... LastLast
Results 661 to 675 of 1441
  1. #661
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    2,916
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post
    Well, we made the playoffs twice in those four seasons, which is looking to be more that the first four years of the Epstein era, so not that bad.

    Which ignores that the bad drafting of the mid-2000s had more to do with those teams' later failures than the FA signings.
    I don't disagree when you make this argument but you need to stop ignoring the fact that the new CBA has changed things substantially. Overslotting made it much more feasible to add top amateur talent to the system on a year in and year out basis regardless of where the MLB team stood.

    It may not be the only way to develop talent, and there may be plenty of good MLB players who didn't start off as elite amateur prospects and went just about anywhere in the draft, but those elite guys go a long way toward building a farm system. It's not enough to just say "outdraft and outdevelop everyone else." There's that, and there's also adding the elite guys who are more likely to turn into big leaguers.


    As for what the right answer is, I don't really know. This new CBA is horsebleep. All of this new money from TV contracts and everything is just going to an inflated market of late and post prime free agents.
    Last edited by DavidH; 12-05-2012 at 05:21 PM.

  2. #662
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    2,072
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post
    It absolutely has an impact on 2014. And 2013, as well.
    Wrong in their situation, the 2002 Cubs record had no impact on 2003, either did 2006 and 2007. Or 2008 on 2009. The reason is elite young talent improving or free agents can make a big impact on your record from year to year. Just like a big drop off in production can like 2008 to 2009.
    "Too big, too strong, too fast, too good"

  3. #663
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,764
    vCash
    1500
    I'm not ignoring it, but I am arguing that you are severely overestimating it's impact.

    Smart teams will still find Anthony Rizzos in the 5th round, dumb teams will still take Hayden Simpsons in the first.

  4. #664
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    1,543
    vCash
    1500
    We've already seen layouts of what "could have been done", we've already had disagreements on where the organization stood heading into Theo coming on board. The odds that the "spend now" strategy would have had us winning a World Series prior to 2015 are damn near infinitessimal. (surely to be followed up with, "but better than they currently are"). Who cares, it's slim as hell. Meanwhile, with proper execution of what they're trying to do, it almost certainly gives better odds of winning one between 2015-2020. Moreso, than piecing things together from the beginning. In the end, Kyle's actual argument SHOULD be that he doesn't think this FO can deliver on their plan. Which is exactly what they've proven for a decade(100+ WAR from drafted players) to be better at than anyone else. They tailored their plan to their strength. Imagine that. Instead of to yhe whining masses that will all be happy as hell in the end anyway, if the plan is executed. Sorry, but winning 10 more games in 2012 may be something some here decide is something they feel is a "must tell" to your grandkids one day. My guess thougj, is hearing about a damn World Series win would be a better story.

  5. #665
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,764
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by cubswin25 View Post
    Wrong in their situation, the 2002 Cubs record had no impact on 2003, either did 2006 and 2007. Or 2008 on 2009. The reason is elite young talent or free agents can make a big impact on your record from year to year. Just like a big drop off in production can like 2008 to 2009.
    The fact that you can go from 70 to 90, or even 60 to 90, doesn't mean there's no difference between 60 and 80.

  6. #666
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,764
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by davell View Post
    We've already seen layouts of what "could have been done", we've already had disagreements on where the organization stood heading into Theo coming on board. The odds that the "spend now" strategy would have had us winning a World Series prior to 2015 are damn near infinitessimal. (surely to be followed up with, "but better than they currently are"). Who cares, it's slim as hell. Meanwhile, with proper execution of what they're trying to do, it almost certainly gives better odds of winning one between 2015-2020.
    And that's where we ultimately disagree. I believe that that lowering of the odds from 2012-2014 were more than the gains from 2015-2020.
    Moreso, than piecing things together from the beginning. In the end, Kyle's actual argument SHOULD be that he doesn't think this FO can deliver on their plan. Which is exactly what they've proven for a decade(100+ WAR from drafted players) to be better at than anyone else.
    Well, let's do the math. They made the playoffs 6 out of 10 times in Boston, trying the entire time.

    So if we punt, say, three seasons, then try for six, we have an expected value of ... rounding to the nearest whole ... 4 playoff seasons out of 9.

    Congratulations, Theo Epstein. You edged out Jim Hendry by one.

    I want better.

    They tailored their plan to their strength. Imagine that. Instead of to yhe whining masses that will all be happy as hell in the end anyway, if the plan is executed. Sorry, but winning 10 more games in 2012 may be something some here decide is something they feel is a "must tell" to your grandkids one day. My guess thougj, is hearing about a damn World Series win would be a better story.
    We'll probably never know what kind of story an Epstein-led Cubs WS win would make.

  7. #667
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    7,531
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidH View Post
    Not really. Hamilton had already shown quite a bit when they traded Volquez and Herrera for him.
    Sorry, I didn't really mean talent wise, I meant not relapsing and falling out of baseball. Didn't they trade for him like 1 year in?
    #Turtlepower

    Save the kittens, ignore sbs' posts
    Red Sox hater since 10/2011

    It is anyway, not anyways.

  8. #668
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    2,072
    vCash
    1500
    What if you had acquired Cespedes & Darvish and were willing to part with the prospects San Diego wanted for Headley ? The whole process would have changed and the team would have been much closer to a contender.
    Yes and they tried to do two of those things.


    You were never going to change the team in 1 year but in 2-3 years you can build a contender. If you are building on parallel fronts you are competitive sooner and add more talent as it develops.
    It's gotta be the right talent. But like I said before those players at the right age aren't available right now. They aren't gonna sign some 30-31 year old to a 6-7 year deal right now. That might change in 2-3 years though, if they have developed other young star talent. For now they need to target guys who either haven't or about to enter their prime. Getting guys in their prime or towards the end of it for big money. Isn't going to help them long term.
    "Too big, too strong, too fast, too good"

  9. #669
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,764
    vCash
    1500
    They don't get credit for things they tried and failed to do.

  10. #670
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    2,916
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post
    Well, let's do the math. They made the playoffs 6 out of 10 times in Boston, trying the entire time.

    So if we punt, say, three seasons, then try for six, we have an expected value of ... rounding to the nearest whole ... 4 playoff seasons out of 9.

    Congratulations, Theo Epstein. You edged out Jim Hendry by one.
    Let's not even start to pretend the AL East is comparable to anything else in baseball.

    In one division, there are (and have been) 3+ teams who could consistently win just about any other division. Don't forget factoring in not having to face each other over and over.

  11. #671
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    2,916
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by gaughan333 View Post
    Sorry, I didn't really mean talent wise, I meant not relapsing and falling out of baseball. Didn't they trade for him like 1 year in?
    Yeah

  12. #672
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,764
    vCash
    1500
    Sure, but the Cardinals are no slouches and he's not using the same plan he did with the Red Sox.

  13. #673
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Posts
    2,916
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post

    We'll probably never know what kind of story an Epstein-led Cubs WS win would make.
    And that would be true of literally anybody you put in charge. Anybody.

    The issue is whether or not his leadership gives you a better chance than most, if not all.

  14. #674
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    2,072
    vCash
    1500
    there's no difference between 60 and 80.
    Yes ones bad and one's mediocre. In the Cubs position with a weak farm. I rather be bad then mediocre. It might be tougher to watch, but that will allow you top draft picks and to trade off talent. Without holding out hope that you might make a run that never happens. Like we have seen happen with previous Cubs teams over the years.
    "Too big, too strong, too fast, too good"

  15. #675
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    5,764
    vCash
    1500
    That's simply a false efficiency. Being that bad and getting the prospects makes you less likely to win the World Series than being mediocre and building from there.

    We've seen this plan from the Cubs, too. It's pretty much the MacPhail plan with Jed Hoyer doing a worse job than Ed Lynch somehow.

Page 45 of 97 FirstFirst ... 3543444546475595 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •