Organizational Philosophy Discussion Thread

[SenatorMendoza]

Obviously there are plenty of successful second round picks in baseball history, and you guys have lost valuable players from signing free agents..

Actually with the changes to free agency comp the Cubs 2nd round pick should be more equivalent to a supplemental 1st rounder. There used to be something like 30 supplemental 1st rounders every year (29 last year) Now I think there are only the 6 competitive balance picks and a lot fewer compensation picks. Meaning the Cubs 2nd rounder would be something like the 45th pick instead of 63rd. I'm still a little shaky on the new compensation rules, but I know there are a lot less compensation picks.

[CUBluejays]

Still cannot be sure the FO has decided to compete next year. The key will be what happens next. If the Cubs sign Bourn and then make a deal using Shark or Garza to get someone like Gordon, I would say the timeline was quickened to be next year. But if the use Shark and Garza to acquire young minor league talent, then it looks like all they did was add pitchers so they can trade a few pitchers to improve the minor league system. Not a bad idea, but then IMO 2013 would not be a year they plan on competing. Probably not 2014 either.

If Shark or Garza are traded it is going to slow the timeline down no matter what they are bringing back. Even if Bourn is signed, if they trade Soriano and Marmol they aren't trying to compete though.

Olt was a supplemental pick, it wasn't a Cubs pick. I just thought it was interesting that the pick the Rangers got for Bryd resulted in somebody that Cubs fans have been lusting after for 2 years.

[CUBluejays]

Actually with the changes to free agency comp the Cubs 2nd round pick should be more equivalent to a supplemental 1st rounder. There used to be something like 30 supplemental 1st rounders every year (29 last year) Now I think there are only the 6 competitive balance picks and a lot fewer compensation picks. Meaning the Cubs 2nd rounder would be something like the 45th pick instead of 63rd. I'm still a little shaky on the new compensation rules, but I know there are a lot less compensation picks.

The teams that sign a sign a player that generates a supplemental pick lose a first rounder unless they are picking in the top 10, so most of those are going to cancel out. The Cubs pick will likely be before 40.

[1908_Cubs]

What data do you want? Obviously there are plenty of successful second round picks in baseball history, and you guys have lost valuable players from signing free agents.

The value is right there, it's not hard to see.

The value is there. But there's a lot more inherent value, I think, in a proven MLB talent than the roll of the dice of the 2nd pick in the draft, especially depending on the talent.

I'm a little iffy on whether a Bourn with be the kind of player I'd roll that dice on, but I think I side on the level of doing it because next season, you very well could be losing your first round pick signing an Ellsbury.

[gaughan333]

I thought texas got that pick as compensation, not from the cubs

[gaughan333]

I'd wait to see if ellsbury can get through a season before penciling him in the cubs lineup for 2014

[CUBluejays]

I thought texas got that pick as compensation, not from the cubs

Yes, for Byrd.

[1908_Cubs]

I'd wait to see if ellsbury can get through a season before penciling him in the cubs lineup for 2014

I've seen no one pencil him in. But the Cubs should be in the market for a CF'er type in the next two years. Ellsbury tends to be one of the ones you can really market to the Cubs with his connections to the FO and his FA. If he's extended a qualifying offer, we're talking a first round pick if we sign him. It needs to be mentioned that it's nicer to keep the 1st this year than lose it next year on an Ellsbury.

[gaughan333]

I don't think you make a move now, on the chance that you might sign a player next year that might cost you a draft pick

[1908_Cubs]

I don't think you make a move now, on the chance that you might sign a player next year that might cost you a draft pick

...it's only one part to consider. It should, however, be considered. Ignoring it only sets you up to the point where you may be forced to give up a first round pick.

[C-ross12]

The value is there. But there's a lot more inherent value, I think, in a proven MLB talent than the roll of the dice of the 2nd pick in the draft, especially depending on the talent.

I'm a little iffy on whether a Bourn with be the kind of player I'd roll that dice on, but I think I side on the level of doing it because next season, you very well could be losing your first round pick signing an Ellsbury.

I'm right there with you. I'm really up in the air on Bourn. Love his D, speed, all that. I think at this point, I'm just a bit against signing him. If we dont get him I wont be miserable, but if we dont I'll be fine as well. An OPS+ of 99..

[StrandedCub]

I've seen no one pencil him in. But the Cubs should be in the market for a CF'er type in the next two years. Ellsbury tends to be one of the ones you can really market to the Cubs with his connections to the FO and his FA. If he's extended a qualifying offer, we're talking a first round pick if we sign him. It needs to be mentioned that it's nicer to keep the 1st this year than lose it next year on an Ellsbury.

Very good point.

[gaughan333]

is the only thing required for comp picks that you get a qualified offer?

[1908_Cubs]

is the only thing required for comp picks that you get a qualified offer?

Yes.

Although I believe it's not a comp pick anymore, and you just gain the team's first round selection (protected first rounders then mean the 2nd round selection goes to the team who lost their player)

[davell]

Actually, its the opposite. If a team signs a qualified player, they lose their 1st and everyone else moves up a spot in the draft. The team that loses a player then receives a comp pick, immediately after the 1st round. Followed by 6 competitive balance picks. Then the 2nd round starts. All told, the 2nd round round starts at pick 37, unless a team(Pirates this year) failed to sign their 1st from the previous season. Pretty sure right now, our 2nd round pick is 39th overall in 2013 and has a slot value of around 1.3 million.