Meanwhile, he lost 5 games where he pitched 7 innings, allowing 1 run or less
He lost an additional 6 quality starts on top of that (11 in total)
He only won one game where he gave up 3 runs.
If he gave up 4 runs in a game, he lost, period (which he only did 6 times all year any way, and he never gave up more than 6, which was only once, and it was exactly 6, Carlton did the same).
You are expecting Greinke to live up to one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time and using wins to dilute his value, when he was clearly valuable.
He barely has any opportunities on defense, he didn't get to swing the bat. His only control was how he executed his pitches. The rest of it was out of his control.
Meanwhile, Carlton won 4 games where he gave up 4 runs (including 5 in one)
He won an additional 2 games where he gave up 3 runs (so here is a net 5 win advantage for Carlton already)
In his loses, he only lost 1 game where he didn't give up 2 runs and he lost 6 quality starts.
What you are demanding out of Greinke is unreasonably unfair to him. Carlton for one, again, had one of the best pitching seasons of all time. But also, when he was given run support, it was always just enough.
Greinke would be given 10 runs, and then 0. There is a difference here.
11 quality starts vs 6 should be telling enough. But so are the unfair loses given to Greinke. 5 loses where he gave up 1 run or less, Carlton just one.
And Carlton again, was able to give up 4 runs, and get a win several times.
Based on runs by their offenses:
If each pitcher threw 7 innings, giving up 3 runs....their records would have been as follows:
Carlton - 26-11 with 4 no decisions
Greinke - 19-12 with 2 no decisions
Greinke simply didn't have as many chances as Carlton
Greinke didn't have any games like this
where he still got the win, Carlton had more than a couple, and he still got the win. Demanding a players W-L to be reflective of their opportunities is simply unfair. They do not receive equal run support in equal moments.
Sure, their run support on the season overall ended rather closely to one another, but their runs scored were not equal in opportunities.
Carlton certainly went the distance most of the time, and his team won most of those games. He was clearly dominant, it's arguably the best pitching season of all time.
Greinke had the best pitching season in 2009 (easily), but the fact he only had 16 wins is meaningless. Most of the decisions are out of the pitchers control.
I don't know what else you expect Greinke to do, he clearly executed his pitches and was dominant. Just because his team didn't come through for him, and he literally lost 11 quality starts is out of his control.
Would you rather have Rick Helling's 1998 or Kevin Brown?
Last edited by Jeffy25; 11-26-2012 at 02:42 PM. Reason: grammar error fixed
No one knows the argument. You have really made it clear. You just throw out random crap that hasn't really added up.
You have no idea how excited I am right now.
The RH/KB compaison I'll have to get to you about.
Everything you mentioned is out of his control, and that's what we are trying get rid of in player comparisons. You can't fault him for his coaches, or his pen. You look at the stats he controlled, not what he and his offense and his bullpen controlled. If you can't understand that I think we are done here.
We have established that Greinke pitched very well. All of HIS stats show that. There is no need to bring in a worthless stat.
You have no idea how excited I am right now.
No, I guess I feel the player has more say in staying in the game than you all. Let's say he doesn't for your argument's sake, why isn't he saying anything after being taken out in the 7th after only giving up 1 run? 7 TIMES! What is the manager's reason to not allow him to take them to a victory?
The bullpen argument is where you completely lost me. What does Greinke handing off the ball to someone he trusts have to do with anything? He has zero say in bullpen decisions, let alone when those players get used. Pitchers are handled far differently now then they were when Carlton was pitching.
And other times, he has just a high pitch count (average 108 pitches per start)
We don't have the pitch count totals from 1972, so we don't know how many pitches Carlton was throwing, but it's safe to say he was averaging over 130 per start based on his K and BB rates and innings pitched.
This is out of Greinke's control, if he was at 100 pitches after 7 innings, he was going to get pulled because his manager and organization were convinced that was as many pitches as he should be allowed to throw. Regardless if that is accurate or not.
Pitchers can't just 'will' their way to remain in the game, and they don't have much say in it any longer. They are too valuable now. Do you think Strasburg was cool with being shut down this season? Hell no. He was adamantly opposed to it.
Greinke didn't pitch as well as Carlton in their best individual seasons. But that isn't because of wins, and their seasons were much closer in value than their wins would show. Carlton pitched one of the best single seasons the game has ever seen. It's consistently talked about as one of the best seasons ever. He deserved to win 30 games that year, and with a better offense, he would have.
Greinke deserved well over 20 wins, and was easily the best pitcher in 2009. If he had more run support, or a better bullpen, or a better defense. He would have had more than 16 wins. But it was outside of his control. He doesn't control those factors.
He controls his K rate, his BB rate, his ground ball, fly ball, line drive rates, and he controls his HR rate.
Outside of that, he has no control. He doesn't control if his team scores 10 runs or zero runs (unless in the NL, then they have a minute amount of control in that). He doesn't control if his middle infielders turn that key double play of mess it up. He doesn't control if his bullpen gives up 6 runs in the 8th to cost him a W. He doesn't control those things, so why on earth should he be compared to other pitchers based on a stat he doesn't control?
That's why Wins and Loses don't matter for pitchers. Carlton's season was epic, and I'm sure as a Phillies fan, it's fun to talk about. Carlton stayed in for the full game a total of 30 freaking times. 30! out of 41 starts. Nobody gets 41 starts now-a-days, and you sure as hell won't see anybody complete 30 games, hell you probably won't even see somebody throw 300 innings again. The game has evolved away from that (for better or worse). Greinke couldn't will his team to victory, and he couldn't do much more than go out, there average 7.1 innings per start, and allow on average 2 runs or less per start. That's the best he could do. What happens outside of that is outside of his control. He excelled that season, and even had some luck defensively behind him actually. The 16 wins though. That's suppressed by a horrible bullpen, not winning 11 quality starts, and never winning a game after allowing 4 runs. His offense was anemic, so anemic that only once could they win a game for him after he allowed 3 runs. It's pretty dangerous to know you have to allow 2 runs or less to have a chance to win a game. Most pitchers if that was the case, would never sniff .500.
Every single baseball game, every single day, there are pitchers that get Wins that they don't deserve, and guys that get loses and no decisions that they don't deserve. All you have to do is look through the box scores on any given night and you can see how evident this is.
So if we are going to compare pitchers, let's compare them over the things they can actually influence. The things we know they have direct control over. Like K, BB, HR allowed, ground ball, fly ball, line drives allowed. Those are the things they can influence.
any reasonable person reading this entire thread (as i just did) would surmise the champions of counting stats are far less intelligent & quite inept at defending their stance than the sabermetricians...a landslide for logic!