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  1. #1
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    NY Mets' Decision To Keep Or Trade R.A. Dickey Isn't A No Brainer

    http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/ba...icle-1.1203011
    Personal achievement aside, R.A. Dickey was thrilled to win the Cy Young Award as a way of erasing the stigma of knuckleballers as trick-pitch artists who can’t be trusted as part of an organizational blueprint for success.
    And yet in Dickey’s case, if he is going to remain a Met next season and beyond, it’s not quite that simple. He has the additional stigma of being old, meaning that even a Cy Young Award doesn’t necessarily answer the obvious question:

    Would it be smarter for a franchise in rebuilding mode to sign a 38-year-old knuckleballer to a multiyear contract or trade him while his value is high and he has a $5 million option year remaining on his contract?

    It’s a question the Mets’ decision-makers are wrestling with on a daily basis as they begin to engage teams in trade discussions as a means of filling the many holes in their ballclub.

    Dickey can be a valuable part of a starting rotation for a few more years. He probably doesn’t have another 20-win season in him, but he’ll almost certainly have plenty of dominant starts — on nights the knuckler is dancing for him.

    In addition, as Daily News beat writer Andy Martino has been reporting, Dickey is willing to sign a two-year deal, in the $20 million-$24 million range.

    Even with the Mets still determined not to add significant payroll, that’s practically a no-brainer.

    However, there is concern in the front office that Dickey could break down over the next couple of years, and that if they don’t trade him now they’ll be missing out on a great opportunity to solidify their future.

    Because Dickey throws his knuckler as hard as 80 mph, with the type of effort more associated with a conventional power pitcher, some of the Mets’ people believe Dickey can’t be viewed as a typical knuckleballer who can maintain his level well into his 40s.

    “I don’t trust it,’’ was the way one Mets person put it this week. “I’m not even worried about his arm, necessarily. At his age his back or his knees are at risk, the same they would be with any older pitcher. ‘’

    Is that overstating Dickey’s risk of injury? Perhaps. But it’s the way baseball executives think, especially those in the Sandy Alderson regime who have been looking toward 2014 and beyond since they took on the task of rebuilding the Mets two years ago.

    With that in mind, you can understand the appeal of trading Dickey. On the other hand, at some point all this talk about the future begins to sound like a way of merely buying more time, as the Mets wait for the contracts of Johan Santana and Jason Bay to come off the payroll.

    In any case, the Cy Young Award shouldn’t be the deciding factor. Dickey has established a nice rapport with Mets fans, but these are fans who are thirsting for a winner, above all, so this shouldn’t be about making the right PR move.

    Instead it should be about doing what’s best to build a championship ballclub. If the Mets find a win-now team willing to deal them a major-league ready outfielder with 30-home run power for Dickey, then it would be hard to argue against such a trade. And most fans almost surely would buy into it.

    I did.

    But would they be better off trading Jonathon Niese than Dickey? As a 26-year-old lefthander who is under team control at $5 million-a-year for six more seasons, including two option years, Niese may have more trade value than Dickey, especially for small-market clubs.

    When I asked one Mets person if he thought Niese would be enough to fetch the Royals’ Alex Gordon, a Gold Glove left fielder who led the majors with 51 doubles last season, he said he had no doubt.

    “But I wouldn’t do it,” he said. “I’d rather keep the young arms and buy the bats (when the Mets have money to spend next winter).”

    The Mets are over-valuing Niese’s potential, but in any case, it’s clear the front office’s focus is very much on a future beyond next season.

    Whether that future includes Dickey probably depends more on what type of offers they get for him this winter than th e feel-good vibe that comes with winning the Cy Young Award.
    Found it an interesting read (although not a huge fan of John Harper)

    It seems a Met's official doesn't trust Dickey's body to hold up but if the reports are true and he is willing to accept a 2 year deal i dont know how the Mets pass that up.

    I found it more interesting that someone in the organization believes the Mets could get Alex Gordon for Niese straight up. If that deal was out there, i would love to see Alex Gordon playing LF next season (but i honestly don't think Niese would be enough in that deal)
    Last edited by metswon69; 11-16-2012 at 07:32 AM.

  2. #2
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    Again, the devil is in the details. Even the Bishop of the C of D has to agree that if you can get a young, consistent outfielder who will hit 30+ homers, bat over .280, and run, catch and throw, you make the trade.

    You just have to be sure who you're getting. My biggest fear is that the Mets are less concerned about who they get in return for Robert Allen than to rid themselves of a would-be large contract.

    Two years, 24 million is almost ridiculously reasonable for Dickey, and i even wonder if those numbers are legitimate. But if the numbers are correct, and the Mets dump Dickey anyway, then it would become proof positive the Mets only interest is in charging premium, retail prices for a bargain basement team.

    And if that's the case, nothing else matters anyway.
    "Mr. Martin Tanner, Baritone, of Dayton, Ohio made his Town Hall debut last night. He came well prepared, but unfortunately his presentation was not up to contemporary professional standards. His voice lacks the range of tonal color necessary to make it consistently interesting. Full time consideration of another endeavor might be in order."

  3. #3
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    2 years at 24 mill, you sign him as fast as you can get him to the table. The value of Niese, well according to all the stat geeks is of a top end starter. The Mets are just waiting for that player to reach his full potential and take off. He took a big step forward in 2012 to becoming a #2 starter or better (not there yet consistently)! The question is, if someone throws a package on the table that includes a young stud outfielder, do we get it done? The answer is of course YES, we have little to next to nothing in the pipeline to fill that spot. If they want RA, well like everyone else who watches PAWN STARS, make me an offer!

    But as the Good Bishop says, do it to better ourselves and not because we need Chris Carter to save 3 million bucks. I'm still mad we traded Billy Wagner for a bag of peanuts!
    " You seek Yoda!

  4. #4
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    No way would I trade niese for Alex Gordon... He had 1 good year. No way in hell. Gordon is extremely over valued.


    Presenting the 2013 New York Mets Outfield.

  5. #5
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    When thu say 2 for 24 million for dickey is that including his option year and really a 3 year deal?


    Presenting the 2013 New York Mets Outfield.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rio40 View Post
    No way would I trade niese for Alex Gordon... He had 1 good year. No way in hell. Gordon is extremely over valued.
    How can you not make that deal?

    He's was a 7 fWAR player in 2011 and 6fWAR player this year.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...position=3B/OF

    For an impact position player like that in LF, i would deal Niese without apprehension.
    Last edited by metswon69; 11-16-2012 at 08:30 AM.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by fanofclendennon View Post
    Again, the devil is in the details. Even the Bishop of the C of D has to agree that if you can get a young, consistent outfielder who will hit 30+ homers, bat over .280, and run, catch and throw, you make the trade.

    You just have to be sure who you're getting. My biggest fear is that the Mets are less concerned about who they get in return for Robert Allen than to rid themselves of a would-be large contract.

    Two years, 24 million is almost ridiculously reasonable for Dickey, and i even wonder if those numbers are legitimate. But if the numbers are correct, and the Mets dump Dickey anyway, then it would become proof positive the Mets only interest is in charging premium, retail prices for a bargain basement team.


    And if that's the case, nothing else matters anyway.


    You need more proof of this?

    C'mon man!

  8. #8
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    The Metsd are trying to wheedle out of resigning RA.

    It's panning out as I expected it would.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by metswon69 View Post
    How can you not make that deal?

    He's was a 7 fWAR player in 2011 and 6fWAR player this year.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...position=3B/OF

    For an impact position player like that in LF, i would deal Niese without apprehension.
    Yeah, that's a no-brainer. I'm concerned that we have someone working for the Mets who wouldn't do that.

    Niese is an average starting pitcher. Gordon right now is as good a player as David Wright. He leads the league in doubles, with a high walk rate, while winning gold gloves defensively.

    I have no idea what people are looking at with Niese to think he's worth that much. The advanced stats say he's been about as average as his record. Nobody anywhere thinks he's a top of rotation arm. The Royals would laugh at that offer and insist on Harvey or Wheeler at least.

  10. #10
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    Niese is the real deal. His whip for 2012 put him at #18 in the entire league!!! His improvement from 2011 to 2012 was outstanding. A good explanation for his 2011 season has to be blamed on Wharten for making him use more of two pitches he had a hard time controlling.

    "Niese’s improvement is due mostly to the refinement of his pitch arsenal and accepting that some of his pitches are much better than others. None of Niese’s pitches are about velocity—his average fastball this season has been 91 mph—they’re about command. Last season, Niese’s numbers rose as he struggled to find command with two pitches, his sinker and changeup. Though he has five pitches, Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen worked with him last year to try and improve those two, which meant throwing them more often in game situations. The outcome of using pitches he couldn’t control was a lot of contact and an inflated ERA.
    This season, Niese has been allowed to be himself, using the three pitches he’s most comfortable using most—his fastball, curveball, and cutter." SBNation Cee Angi

    All this makes sense when you try to figure out Niese's season. That and he got tired 2/3's the way thru the season in 2011. I believe Jon has MATURED as a front line starter. So trade who you want, but Niese I believe has a great value if you're looking for a good return. Now don't give him away for nothing. Thats the trick!
    " You seek Yoda!

  11. #11
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    AdamRubinESPN Olney: Wilpons should sign R.A. or get out es.pn/Xh9CYu #NYM


    ďNinety percent Iíll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent Iíll probably waste.Ē
    - Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary

  12. #12
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    R.A. has his Cy Young and 20 win season. What he doesn't have is a flush bank account (by big league standards) and a ring or playoff experience. Why would he want to cut the Mets a deal? 2 years/$24M to stay with the Mets doesn't sound right to me.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinde View Post
    R.A. has his Cy Young and 20 win season. What he doesn't have is a flush bank account (by big league standards) and a ring or playoff experience. Why would he want to cut the Mets a deal? 2 years/$24M to stay with the Mets doesn't sound right to me.
    Me neither.
    "Mr. Martin Tanner, Baritone, of Dayton, Ohio made his Town Hall debut last night. He came well prepared, but unfortunately his presentation was not up to contemporary professional standards. His voice lacks the range of tonal color necessary to make it consistently interesting. Full time consideration of another endeavor might be in order."

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by acerimusdux View Post
    Yeah, that's a no-brainer. I'm concerned that we have someone working for the Mets who wouldn't do that.

    Niese is an average starting pitcher. Gordon right now is as good a player as David Wright. He leads the league in doubles, with a high walk rate, while winning gold gloves defensively.

    I have no idea what people are looking at with Niese to think he's worth that much. The advanced stats say he's been about as average as his record. Nobody anywhere thinks he's a top of rotation arm. The Royals would laugh at that offer and insist on Harvey or Wheeler at least.
    It's not a no-brainer at all, it's hard to find left-handed #2/#3 starters under a team friendly contract. The advanced stats show that he is a very good pitcher over the last two seasons.

    I love Gordon, but I'd find it hard to part with Niese for him. He would be the Royals best starter showing how hard it is to find quality young pitching.

    However he will be under contract for 4 more seasons, so in a way I guess it could work. But he will make more than Niese, $9M/$10M/$12.5M/$12.5M for the next four years which is exactly pretty good compared to what upcomig free agents will get. I'm torn, I'd be happy with whatever decision they made personally.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinde View Post
    R.A. has his Cy Young and 20 win season. What he doesn't have is a flush bank account (by big league standards) and a ring or playoff experience. Why would he want to cut the Mets a deal? 2 years/$24M to stay with the Mets doesn't sound right to me.
    Nor me. The chatter up until now has been that the Mets were willing to sign him for 2 years, while Dickey was looking for 3-4. If R.A. really is wiling to take 2 years at $12M per, he should already be signed.

    Then again, we're talking about the Mets. The broke-***, scrubneck Mets.

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