Blue Jays Finally Contenders??

[Halladay]

hahahaha, let's not stretch it now.. the Jays won 73 games last year.

They added

Josh Johnson (3.8 WAR)
Jose Reyes (4.5 WAR)
Mark Buehrle (2.1 WAR)
John Buck (1.2 WAR)
emilio Bonafacio (0.6 WAR

But you also lost

Yunekl Escobar (1.8 WAR)
A bunch of WAR off the bench.

I understand you can't just add WAR and come up with a wins total accurately, but for humor's sake: Even if all the players to the Jays replicate their 2012 success, the Jays would be a:

drumroll please:

83-84 win team. That would have put them at fourth place in the AL East in 2012. That would have put them 11 games behind the Yankees and 6 games behind the third place Rays. They would have still finished fourth.

THe Yankees, Orioles, and Rays are still the team to beat, and calling them the favorites on paper is crazy. The Jays will need a fully healthy season from about everybody (Bautista, Morrow, Johnson, Reyes) and a bouceback season from Romero is they want to win this. It is still an uphill battle.

I personally think the Jays are going topackage Buehrle and JPA and try to land Justin Upton in a three way deal, but you didn't hear it from me.

WAR doesn't work this way...

[MotownWebGuy]

Blue Jays Finally Contenders??

What do you guys think?

Correct!
You will also see contention from the Kansas City Royals.

Every year, MLB gets dealt a few surprise teams.

[SpecialFNK]

because WAR is so meaningful. #overrated.

not everything in baseball can be calculated into numbers.
different players can perform differently in different situations where you can't calculate that into a number.
it's different.

[Miltstar]

The Jays were decimated by injuries in 2012. I wouldn't read too much into their W/L record from last year. Health is definately still a major concern though.

[Halladay]

because WAR is so meaningful. #overrated.

not everything in baseball can be calculated into numbers.
different players can perform differently in different situations where you can't calculate that into a number.
it's different.

WAR isnt overrated it's just understanding how the stat works and is applied. I'm a saber guy but I know there's flaws in all the stats. I also know these stats are much more accurate and telling than something irrelevant like RBI's.

[SpecialFNK]

I'm not a WAR guy and maybe don't know enough about it. but when multiple different websites have a different WAR number for the same player for the same season, then it has a huge flaw.

[Young2Kinsler]

I don't see what Jays fans see in guys like Lind and Rasmus

[rkelly7]

I undersatand everybody's point. WAR isn't perfect and you can't just add the numbers and expect to get a perfectly accurate determination. All I'm saying is the Jays need to be healthy, and even then I wouldn't call them the favorites. They just landed three solid players, but they need them to perform and for their players from last year to stay healthy and productive. I don't think AA is done. I see them landing another good piece in a trade. They have John Buck and D'Arnard, so JPA is trade bait.

I also see them looking into shopping Buehrle to the loser of the Greinke sweepstakes (Rangers, Angels, Brewers)

[Dol-Fan]

I don't see what Jays fans see in guys like Lind and Rasmus

I think there is one guy on the Jays' forum who likes Lind. He sucks and we know it. We've been waiting for his departure for a long time now, and there was a mini party when he was demoted last year.

Colby is bit different. He was 8th in CF OPS last year before getting injured. He's streaky as hell but has pop and is quite good defensively. I think he's got one more season to show that he's a ~.750 OPS CF, and if he is - admittedly, he may not be - then he's a solid player to have around. Not a star, and you certainly upgrade if you can, but useful.

[rcs15]

The Rays and Yankees are still better

[Brewer94]

Jays need to fill the DH and LF hole (say Swisher and Upton?).

If they do that, yes they will be AL east champions most likely.

Okay but if you want Upton your going to give up 1 of: Syndergaard,Sanchez, Norris, and most likely D'Arnaud.
Thats like saying "if the Brewers trade for Upton, sign Hamilton and Greinke then they will be favorites to win the NL Central"

[adab]

Way to early to tell how this affects the team's fortunes. Certainly, they're better than before the trade, but you'd have to reserve judgement until you see how the other AL East teams react with regards to thekir own trades and freee agent signings. Hopefully the Jays are not done with modifying their roster; they still need a LF and you can nebver have enough pitching.
Lastly, with the Astros now in the AL West and the AL Central having 1 or 2 good teams with a bunch of inferior quality teams, it's entirely possible that neither AL wild card team will come from the East.

[Brewer94]

WAR doesn't work this way...

Exactly. Bonifacio was out for most of the season. I think Jays fans will be pleasantly surprised with him if he plays to his potential.

[rkelly7]

Rasmus isn't terrible, Lind is. I always had a problem with Jays fans defending Travis Snider! He was never good except for half a season. I was sooooooooooooooo happy when AA traded him. Phew.

[SpecialFNK]

Okay but if you want Upton your going to give up 1 of: Syndergaard,Sanchez, Norris, and most likely D'Arnaud.
Thats like saying "if the Brewers trade for Upton, sign Hamilton and Greinke then they will be favorites to win the NL Central"

I think he meant he wants a BJ.
no wait, that didn't come out right lol.
I mean I think he meant BJ, as in free agent BJ Upton. not trading for Justin Upton.