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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    St. Louis

    Mike Lombardi In-Depth

    Thought I would start a thread for this as its a lot of information and dont want to jack another threads current topics.

    As Frowns consigliere @jimkanicki has pointed out, that many of Lombardi’s drafts with the Browns, Eagles, and Raiders fell on the wrong end of Mel Kiper, Jr.’s grading curve. Even Lombardi admits that he and Bill Belichick commiserate over their lackluster selections from time to time – I picture the two of them aboard a sailboat off the Nantucket coast, huddled over a bottle of Ciroc, cursing Tommy Vardell, Eric Zeier, and Craig Powell. However, in his introductory press conference, Lombardi also claimed that working in the media improved his talent evaluating talents (mostly via an office at NFL Films) and broadened his perspective of the league. Was he telling the truth? We remember Lombardi’s facepalm-inducing opinions of Joe Haden and Josh Gordon, but surely he got something right, right?

    Well that’s what your intrepid correspondent set out to discover. For three days I did nothing but eat, sleep, drink, read, and listen to Michael Lombardi, the man, the myth, the legend, circa 2008-2012, going where the mainstream media refuses to go. What I uncovered was equal parts mesmerizing, gut-wrenching, and flabbergasting, and I encourage all of you to read on to see for yourself – it’s basically your civic duty:

    Artifact: The B.S. Report, 4/18/08 (Lombardi’s segment starts at 26:50).

    Quotes of Note:

    First, a disclaimer: I’ve only included quotes that stuck out as a) especially interesting or b) contrary to conventional wisdom. Lombardi doesn’t deserve props for exalting Andrew Luck when anyone with semi-functioning retinas could see his greatness; conversely, we shouldn’t knock him too hard for calling Glenn Dorsey “the best player in the [2008] draft” when such a belief was prevalent at the time. OK, on to the quotes.

    “[A quarterback’s] accuracy is very difficult to improve, and if he can’t improve it, the player won’t ever make it [in the NFL].”

    “[Al Davis] ran every draft…That’s his baby.”

    “[My least favorite draft] was 1995 in Cleveland, and we had the tenth pick, I believe. There were ten really good players in the draft, and we got some information on Warren Sapp that wasn’t favorable – it wasn’t accurate, but we believed it – and when the Jets picked Kyle Brady in front of us, everyone thought we were going berserk [because Sapp was still available]…However, we would’ve picked Sapp, but had some wrong intelligence…So we move to the bottom of the first round; we were gonna pick Curtis Martin there, but thought, ‘Nah, we’ll sign Lorenzo White in free agency and pick a defensive player.’…When I got home that night, I burnt all the clothes on my body.” [Worth a link here: Jon Gruden Is Gonna Get Two Hotel Rooms For All His *****es, Bill Belichick’s D*ck Is Hard, And Other Things We Learned From Warren Sapp’s New Book.]

    “People talk about taking Darren McFadden [with a high draft pick] like he’ll make a difference, but the Minnesota Vikings had the number one ranked run offense and defense [in the 2007 season], and they watched the playoffs.”

    “Vernon Gholston, I think, [is missing something] in the sense that he doesn’t do it all the time. A lot of the sacks that he gets in college are against running backs, and he won’t have that luxury in the NFL.”

    Verdict: Not the worst showing for Lombardi, for having to man up on landing Craig Powell/Lorenzo White instead of two first ballot Hall of Famers in ’95 (can we really blame him for pulling a Ray Lewis with his draft day gear?) The remark about a quarterback’s accuracy bodes poorly for Brandon Weeden, and while the Al Davis quip may come across as self-serving, I tend to believe him. Finally, kudos to him for doubting non-difference makers Darren McFadden and Vernon Gholston. (If only Gholston had dropped his gym membership and joined a yoga studio…)

    Artifact: The B.S. Report, 4/19/2010.

    Quotes of Note:

    [When asked for sleepers in the top 40]: “I like Maurkice Pouncey from Florida…I think he’s a guy that’s gonna go to the Pro Bowl for a long time; if somebody takes him in the first round, that’s a smart pick…Dan Williams, the nose tackle from Tennessee will be a really good player, and I like Jason Pierre-Paul – he’s got unique skills. If he gets with the right coach and the right team, he can become a great pass rusher.”

    Verdict: Put Lombardi on a Wheaties box for this effort. Pouncey is a three-time Pro Bowler, Williams if not at the top of Frownie’s wish list next to things like “free corndogs” and “unicorns,” is nevertheless a solid anchor to one of the best defensive lines in football, and after J.J. Watt (and maybe Aldon Smith), there isn’t a defensive end I’d rather have than Pierre-Paul.

    Documents: Diner morning news: Fins make the right move, 4/26/2010; Diner morning news: A new draft philosophy, 4/27/2010.

    Quotes of Notes:

    “I really think wide receiver Arrelious Benn of Illinois is going to struggle to play the game fast. He moves better in a workout than when he’s playing the game, and he might struggle to get on the field quickly for the Bucs. He’s a workout player, not a natural player.”

    “The Dolphins were not going to fall in love with combine players or anyone who had a great workout. They wanted to focus on football players and not let a 40 time or individual workout alter their thought process. They made it a point to have their draft board completely graded before they went to the Indy combine. They weren’t going to be swayed by workout warriors, and they were going to make sure they stayed true to their philosophical beliefs. Those beliefs are centered on size and speed football players — but the speed is functional football speed.”

    Verdict: In these articles (especially the second one), Lombardi expresses a vehement disdain for “workout warriors.” If a player’s stock skyrockets at the combine because of extraordinary measurable (like Dontari Poe’s did last year), I wouldn’t expect the Browns to draft him at 6.

    Document/Artifact: Uncertainty about Tebow leaves Broncos with draft dilemma, 2/21/2011; Lombardi on Mike and Mike in the Morning, 4/26/2012.

    Quotes of Note:

    “I think if I was still in the league and needed a quarterback, instead of chasing [Kevin] Kolb, I would chase Brian Hoyer of the Patriots. If teams evaluate New England’s Week 17 game against Miami, they’d see that Hoyer demonstrates the skills needed to be a starter.”

    [When asked about Brandon Weeden possibly sneaking into the first round]: “Brandon Weeden’s got a great arm; everybody talks about his maturity, his age…There’s gonna be some uncertainty with Weeden. I think there’s a long separation [between Andrew Luck/RG3 and Weeden]. Look, I’m a Brian Hoyer fan…I would’ve rather given up a second round pick for Brian Hoyer than select one of these quarterbacks after [Luck and RG3] get drafted.”

    Verdict: I respect Lombardi for using his national soapbox to pimp a Cleveland native (St. Ignatius stand up!), but since these comments were made:

    The Patriots cut Hoyer on August 31, 2012.
    The Steelers added Hoyer on November 20, 2012 after Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich went down with injuries.
    The Steelers started a decrepit, 38 year-old Charlie Batch over Hoyer in Cleveland, where he was intercepted thrice and finished the game with a QBR of 20.8.
    The very next week, the Steelers started a decrepit, 38 year-old Charlie Batch again over Hoyer in Baltimore.
    The Steelers cut Hoyer on December 8, 2012.
    If Lombardi was our GM VP of Player Personnel a year ago, there is a very good chance that Hoyer would have affixed his name to this storied list by now:

    Document: Feeling prepared to rewrite ‘one of my least-favorite’ drafts, 4/12/2011.

    Quotes of Note:

    To fully exorcise the sizzurp-sipping demons of JaMarcus Russell and his astronomical contract with the Raiders as the top overall pick, Lombardi took it upon himself to redo the 2007 draft. Understandable. Here is his revised top 10:

    Raiders: Darrelle Revis
    Lions: Calvin Johnson
    Browns: Adrian Peterson
    Bucs: Patrick Willis
    Cardinals: Joe Thomas
    Redskins: LaRon Landry
    Vikings: Jon Beason
    Falcons: LaMarr Woodley
    Dolphins: Joe Staley
    Texans: Leon Hall

    Verdict: This was published in April 2011, at the height of the Revis Island phenomenon, but I’m still surprised that Lombardi would (re)draft Revis over Johnson and Peterson. First, in 2007, the Raiders already had the NFL’s best cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha, yet their offensive skill positions were atrocious – like, 2009 Browns-level atrocious. Second, I believe Johnson and Peterson help their teams win more than Revis does. (I.e., I don’t think the 2011 Lions/2012 Vikings would make the playoffs if they lacked Johnson/Peterson but had Revis.) Perhaps this lends credence to the idea that the Browns will eschew a pass rusher at 6 in favor of Alabama cornerback Dee Milliner. Though a Haden/Milliner tandem is enticing, Ziggy Ansah, Jarvis Jones, and Barkevious Mingo are better options in the eyes of this amateur draftnik.

    Documents: Owens has only himself to blame for his struggles finding a team, 7/18/2010; Josh Gordon’s emergence is solidifying GM Tom Heckert’s young receiving corps, 12/7/2012; New Browns VP Mike Lombardi backs off Brandon Weeden comments, 1/19/2013.

    Quotes of Note:

    “According to coaches around the league, Browns first-round pick Joe Haden has not been very impressive in camps and might not have enough speed to play corner. Maybe all that talk about some in the organization wanted to take Kyle Wilson over Haden was true.”

    [On the Browns selecting Josh Gordon in the second round of the 2012 supplemental draft]: “A wasted pick.”

    [On the Browns selecting Brandon Weeden with the 22nd pick in the 2012 draft]: “A panicked disaster.”

    Verdict: Oddly enough, two of Lombardi’s worst evaluations during his stint in the media involve current Browns. We can probably chalk up the Joe Haden hate to Lombardi’s unabashed loathing of Eric Mangini, but the Josh Gordon hate is a bit harder to quantify. Tony Grossi theorizes that, “Lombardi could not find a scouting report on Gordon to commit to his encyclopedic memory; thus, his uninformed opinion on Gordon,” so I’ll go with that, unless anyone else has a better explanation. On the other hand, the Brandon Weeden selection, like this pass, might in fact go down as a panicked disaster.

    Document: Saints, Raiders, others find good value with late draft picks, 4/29/2012.

    Quotes of Note:

    “[Billy] Winn was a medical concern coming out of Boise State, which is why he slipped to the sixth round. But if his health checks out, he is capable of being a good rotational inside defensive lineman.”

    “[Tank] Carder, of TCU, is an instinctive three-down player who can become a starter for the Bills, giving them a linebacker with much-needed speed and athletic skills.”

    “[Vick] Ballard is a productive back with burst acceleration and the ability to play on all three downs. The ex-Mississippi State star might not be the fastest back on the Colts’ roster, but he will be the best very soon.”

    Verdict: Lombardi didn’t hate every Tom Heckert draft pick, see. Here he lists Billy Winn among the twelve best value picks of last year’s draft, along with current Brown Tank Carder and Vick Ballard, who had a nice season in Indianapolis.

    Artifact: The B.S. Report, 4/27/2011.

    Quote of Note:

    “The guy I think who’s the sleeper in this draft, the guy who’s gonna be the DeMarcus Cousins of this draft, is Ryan Mallett. He’s gonna turn out really good for somebody, or it’s gonna be a disaster…Mallett’s got unbelievable ability…I was told this by somebody in the league: Mallett is a better Drew Bledsoe. Nobody wants to admit this because everybody has Bledsoe up on this pedestal, but Mallett throws the ball more accurately, he’s got more toughness than Bledsoe had, he’s a better leader than Bledsoe [was], and he can do everything Bledsoe can do.”

    Verdict: Ryan Mallett is the future!


  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    St. Louis
    One of my greatest memories (and learning experiences) from my days as an NFL executive was being around Bill Walsh during draft preparation.

    The legendary San Francisco 49ers head coach had a unique perspective on the NFL draft -- one rooted in time spent with another coaching icon, Paul Brown, while Walsh worked for as an assistant for the Cincinnati Bengals. Walsh always thought differently in so many areas of the game, on and off the field. Many of Walsh's disciples have been able to take his West Coast offense and duplicate his success. However, few were able to leave the 49ers with his skills as an executive. Walsh knew exactly what his team needed before each draft to challenge every season for a Super Bowl.

    Since we are just 10 days from the 2012 NFL Draft, I thought it'd be fun to go over six of Walsh's biggest hot-button issues with the drafting process. Some come in the form of the statements you might hear or read and others highlight Walsh's unique view on scouting.

    1) Describing the player by the round he should be taken. Walsh hated hearing a scout tell him a player was, for example, not a good second-rounder, but a great third-rounder. He always said the only time people talk about rounds is in draft preparation and on draft day. Never during any player's career, Walsh would vent, does anyone say a player was picked in the right round. The day after the draft, every player is graded on his playing performance, not his selection round. Walsh only cared about what a player would be able to do for his team. He thought "round talk" was the wrong way for a scout to measure his own abilities. It was not talent evaluation, but rather round prediction. When I was in Cleveland, we had a scout who would rarely say much before the draft. When asked a question before draft day, he was vague, unwilling to commit to an opinion, almost sheepish. He refused to extend himself, always playing it safe. However, once the draft was over, he instantly become a new man. He'd sit in the draft room, review every team's pick and grade his work based on his round predictions, as if that was the true litmus test. I can still see him sitting there, looking like he just aced the exam. Walsh always told everyone: It never matters where we pick them, it only matters how they play. If Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill goes eighth overall to the Dolphins and plays great, no one is going to remember where he was taken, just that he produces on the field. If he stinks, it will be a blown pick, regardless of where it occurred.

    2) "This is a bad draft." This statement drove Walsh nuts, as he felt it was a huge copout by scouts. I talk to certain people every year before the draft, and every year they lament the weakness of that year's draft class, as if I don't remember those exact words the year before. Walsh would remind everyone in the room that the draft only needed enough depth for his team to acquire 12 good players. Satisfying every team was not his concern. All he cared about was finding talent for his own team. Therefore, the depth of talent in each draft was not irrelevant.

    3) "We should trade down -- there is no one worth picking at our spot." Even though Walsh loved to move up or down, he felt that scouts always wanted to trade down to avoid putting their reputations on the line. He didn't like scouts shying away from making the tough call when he had to make tough calls all the time. He would ask scouts/personnel directors: "What do you want us to do: Pass on the pick?" When the cost of draft picks soared in prior years, moving down was a great option. But with the new collective bargaining agreement's reduced rookie pay scale, it is not as financially dangerous to just make the pick. Walsh believed there was always someone worth picking, because three years from any draft, people will look back at the great players in the league who were passed over by a number of teams. Once again, Walsh was all about the talent, not the spot.

    4) Watch out for players from downtrodden programs -- particularly programs that have just fired a coach -- being unfairly downgraded. In Walsh's mind, players from a program that has just fired its coach pay a price in draft evaluation. Coaches rarely admit the real reason for their termination -- bad coaching -- instead placing the blame on bad players. These side effects of a losing culture can taint a scout's visit to a particular school. Walsh insisted that all the college prospects in this situation had to be examined closely.

    5) "Never take the one-year wonder and look forward; take the one-year wonder and look back." After Walsh was burned by a one-year wonder in the 1987 draft -- Clemson running back Terrence Flagler -- he became skeptical of limited track records. If a good coach was unable to get a player to produce before his final season with the program, how could he expect to get consistent effort at the NFL level? In a similar vein, former Georgetown coach John Thompson has explained a scenario on the recruiting trail that I love to reference. When the parents of a prospective recruit would ask Thompson to make sure their son attended classes, despite his spotty attendance in high school, Thompson always responded with a simple question: "If you can't get him to go, what makes you think I can?"

    6) "The first year we will teach the players the system, the second year we will develop their skills within the system." Walsh thought overloading a rookie with the entire playbook was a bad mistake. He wanted to have a defined role for each first-year player, and then expand that role in Year 2. His biggest concern was making sure his guys played fast, which required them to react, not think first. With the lockout eliminating minicamps and OTAs this past offseason, teams were forced to cut down on overloading rookies with too much information. And many rookies went on to make significant contributions to their teams in the 2011-12 campaign, further proving Walsh's theory.

    In the next 10 days, as you're bombarded with pre-draft analysis, try and think like Coach Walsh. As he would often remind me, "If we are all thinking alike, then no one is thinking."


  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Cleveland, OH
    Good stuff Otto. Good to see more about Lombardi's personnel evaluations other than the ones he projected wrong in CLE from his previous time here and as NFLN analyst.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Thanks for posting those. Obviously he had some misses, everyone does, but it's nice to see he actually made some really good projections. I will say, these articles actually do make me feel a little bit better about him. Still a little nervous about how he's going to do with the draft, but not as much as I was before.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    St. Louis
    Basically just wanted to say that the sky is not falling with Lombardi despite what a lot of Browns fans and reporters want you to believe. Nobody has a perfect track record when it comes to drafts but once again that isn't the main reason Banner brought him in but like he stated in the PC that Lombardi knows how to build a team inside and out and that goes for the FO as well. Lombardi has been apart of organizations that have been to Super Bowls while he was there, he and Bill had Cleveland turning a corner before the team was sold and him and Banner had started the growing of the seeds of a 4 NFC Championship team with the Eagles.

    Honestly if he wasn't an analysts for the past 5 years with a couple boneheaded comments at times, was associated with Jamarcus Russell (Al Davis) and tied to Ernie Accorsi and Bernie being outed I don't think fans would have an issue with him being hired. Grossi continually holding his own agenda toward him doesn't help either.

    I'm in wait and see mode with Lombardi as I guess I don't take somethings so personally as others especially Grossi.


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