Down On The Farm 2014

[DodgerB24]

Discuss everything MiLB here.

It may be a little early, but we'll need one at some point.

[filihok]

AAA Isotopes Roster looks something like this at this point

C Drew Butera
C JC Boscan
1B Clint Robinson
2B Brendan Harris
3B Josh Bell
SS Justin Sellers
IF/OF Dee Gordon
IF/OF Jamie Romak
LF Chili Buss
CF Jeremy Hazelbaker
RH Mike Baxter

SP Stephen Fife
SP Matt Magill
SP Henry Sosa
SP Drew Carpenter
SP Red Patterson
RP Chris Withrow
RP Jose Dominguez
RP Onelki Garcia
RP Juan Abreu
RP Daniel Moskos



And AA
C Griff Erickson
C Pratt Maynard
1B O'Koyea Dickson or Angel Songco
2B Osvaldo Martinez
3B
SS Miguel Rojas
LF Bobby Coyle
CF Joc Pederson
RF Scott Schebler
OF Brian Cavazos-Galvez
OF Jonathan Garcia

SP Zach Lee
SP Chris Reed
SP Ross Stripling
SP Duke von Schamann
SP Garret Gould
RP Yimi Garcia
RP Pedro Baez
RP Jarret Martin

[ClipperFan489]

I feel like our real talent is in the lower levels (aside from Joc and Lee). These are the guys that I am excited about.

Joc Pederson - I think he is going to get a chance to play this year despite the fact that we have 4 OF already.
Zach Lee - I think he is going to get a shot to pitch this year as well, and possibly establish himself as the 5th starter.

I don't think any of the guys below will make the majors this year, and will top out in Double A

Julio Urias - I think he has got #1 potential (though not on our team)
Chris Anderson
Corey Seager - I could see him in majors by 2015.

[filihok]

Zach Lee - I think he is going to get a shot to pitch this year as well, and possibly establish himself as the 5th starter.

How do you see that?

The Dodgers have
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu
Haren
for the 1st four slot.

There's the possibility of Tanaka.

There's also Beckett/Billingsley/Fife and Magill.

[ClipperFan489]

How do you see that?

The Dodgers have
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu
Haren
for the 1st four slot.

There's the possibility of Tanaka.

There's also Beckett/Billingsley/Fife and Magill.

Well I personally don't think we are going to get Tanaka. If we do then that takes Lee out of the running.

I think Beckett is done. Billingsley won't be back til mid season (and has been questionable for quite some time anyway). Fife and Magil have never really been "trusted" to go. Once Lee gets called up, I don't see him getting called down again.

[DodgerB24]

Once Lee gets called up, I don't see him getting called down again.

Yeah. Beckett's done, and Bills may be gone especially after TJ. And I highly doubt Lee gets pushed back because of Fife and Magill. As least starting in 2015.

[filihok]

Well I personally don't think we are going to get Tanaka. If we do then that takes Lee out of the running.

Agree, if we get Tanaka, Lee is very unlikely to be the #5 this season.

I think Beckett is done. Billingsley won't be back til mid season (and has been questionable for quite some time anyway).

How has Billingsley been questionable?
He was good for 190 innings and 2+ WAR for all but 1 of the last 5 seasons before his injury.

Fife and Magil have never really been "trusted" to go. Once Lee gets called up, I don't see him getting called down again.

I disagree. I think he'll make some spot starts towards the end of the season or in September.
Unless he's phenomenal in the minors in 2014 he'll start 2015 in the minors as well.

Yeah. Beckett's done, and Bills may be gone especially after TJ. And I highly doubt Lee gets pushed back because of Fife and Magill. As least starting in 2015.

Don't get why so many people are so down on Billingsley

[DodgerB24]

I mean, I'm not. I'd love for him to be our #4 in 2015. (if we don't get Tanaka.)

[ClipperFan489]

How has Billingsley been questionable?
He was good for 190 innings and 2+ WAR for all but 1 of the last 5 seasons before his injury.

Oh Billinglsey has got the talent. I was all about him when he first came up, especially after 2008. It is just the way he pitches. It seems like he is great...until he makes a mistake, and then he just implodes. It may very well be personal bias from seeing him pitch all the time, but he always seems to crack under the pressure.

And since 2008, he hasn't had a single ERA+ over 110, and 2 years under 100.

He has got the talent, I just personally think he is a head case.

I disagree. I think he'll make some spot starts towards the end of the season or in September.
Unless he's phenomenal in the minors in 2014 he'll start 2015 in the minors as well.

I agree that your scenario is the more likely to happen, and what most are projecting this year. I guess we can say, Lee getting called up and pitching well is one of my bold predictions for the year.

Don't get why so many people are so down on Billingsley

Mostly what I mentioned above for me. But I would love to be wrong.

[DodgerB24]

Always felt like Billingsley had Matt Cain kind of stuff, but never got it together. Had that amazing 2nd half stretch a few years ago, but hurt his arm.

[ciaban]

Agree, if we get Tanaka, Lee is very unlikely to be the #5 this season.


How has Billingsley been questionable?
He was good for 190 innings and 2+ WAR for all but 1 of the last 5 seasons before his injury.


I disagree. I think he'll make some spot starts towards the end of the season or in September.
Unless he's phenomenal in the minors in 2014 he'll start 2015 in the minors as well.




Don't get why so many people are so down on Billingsley

I have always liked billingsly, and while he finished 2012 very well(minus the injury) the way he started it was very rough, even with the option he likely wont be here come 2015, and while TJ isn't the death sentence it used to be, pitchers typically need more than a year to regain the strength they once had.

[BleedinBlue]

I do think we have a real shot at Tanaka to round, but if not I fear we will be on the Fife/Magill bandwagon unless they want to trust Lee(which is what they should do). Next year Haren, Beckett and Bills come off the books, so we can swing Tanaka, which make the Haren our 5th starter. Not bad at all.

[filihok]

And since 2008, he hasn't had a single ERA+ over 110, and 2 years under 100.

ERA isn't the best way to measure a pitcher since defense, park, umpires, etc all play a role in a pitcher's ERA.
But, ERA isn't really off in this case. Billingsley is an average to above average pitcher. That's perfectly fine slotted into the #4 or #5 slot in the rotation.

Oh Billinglsey has got the talent. I was all about him when he first came up, especially after 2008. It is just the way he pitches. It seems like he is great...until he makes a mistake, and then he just implodes. It may very well be personal bias from seeing him pitch all the time, but he always seems to crack under the pressure.


He has got the talent, I just personally think he is a head case.

I've also seen Billingsley pitch and I disagree.
If you want to make the claim that Billingsley performs worse under pressure than pitchers as a whole you're going to need to provide some data.

TJ isn't the death sentence it used to be, pitchers typically need more than a year to regain the strength they once had.

I see this claim thrown around a lot.
Any evidence to support it.
I don't have a list of every pitcher to ever have TJ surgery, so I can't say one way or the other, but I do know that guys like Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg were both back within a year pitching very well. Are these guys the exception or the rule, I don't know.

[ClipperFan489]

ERA isn't the best way to measure a pitcher since defense, park, umpires, etc all play a role in a pitcher's ERA.
But, ERA isn't really off in this case. Billingsley is an average to above average pitcher. That's perfectly fine slotted into the #4 or #5 slot in the rotation.

Of course you are correct, but ERA is supposed to favor you in Dodgers Stadium. And right now the Dodgers have two #1s (Kershaw/Greinke), and a #2 (Ryu) with the potential to add another #1/#2 (Tanaka). Are the Dodgers really fine with a #4/#5 guy coming off of TJ surgery, when they could just be giving their $5 million signing bonus prospect the shot he has earned?

Personally (and of course we are just talking opinion here, I respect yours and I wouldn't be upset to see your scenario work out of Bilingsley comes back strong), I would go with Lee.

I've also seen Billingsley pitch and I disagree.
If you want to make the claim that Billingsley performs worse under pressure than pitchers as a whole you're going to need to provide some data.

I will work on it and get back to you.

[filihok]

Of course you are correct, but ERA is supposed to favor you in Dodgers Stadium.

ERA+ attempts to account for stadium.
So, if Billingsley's ERA+ is 110 in Dodger stadium it should, theoretically, be 110 in Coors even if his actual ERA is much higher.

Are the Dodgers really fine with a #4/#5 guy coming off of TJ surgery, when they could just be giving their $5 million signing bonus prospect the shot he has earned?

Personally (and of course we are just talking opinion here, I respect yours and I wouldn't be upset to see your scenario work out of Bilingsley comes back strong), I would go with Lee.

I'd absolutely go with Billingsley keeping Lee as a fallback option.
If you go with Lee then Fife and Magill are the fallback options.

Lee will get his chances and he'll get them soon, but there's no reason to rush him when there are other options and we saw just last year how quickly a pitching surplus can evaporate.