2012 Free Agent and Trade Ideas Thread 15.0

[Chi-Town Cubs25]

If Theo brings us back to a 2004 caliber team I would be extremely happy. That team was very close to a World Series and probably should have won one. The front office wasn't really able to sustain that talent through the years so hopefully this one will be more successful at that.

[SenorGato]

And there was a lot of pretty bad luck there, in play, too. Had we not had the bad luck.....we'd be sitting here with, probably, a W.S. While those kinds of things happen, it doesn't usually happen to all 3 of them. Prior got run over, and hit by a line drive on top of a few arm issues (I still think his dislocated shoulder is what killed him). Wood had multiple arm issues. And Zambrano went from TORP to a 5th starter by his early 30's. Just...bad luck. Not even prospect attrition as all 3 of them made is as MLB players. That's MLB attrition. And unexpected MLB attrition at that.

Not bad luck, bad player development. They did not know how to keep their young pitching healthy and on top of it the organization put out one legitimate starting positional talent (Soto) after the Lee/Ramirez trades the farm system gave, and even he was on again off again after his rookie year.

Luck is simplifying it way too much. Luck is a factor probably, but no way a smart FO could not come up with a good idea of what went wrong. Prior dealt with a multitude of injuries but also you can't help but notice how no young pitcher has been used like he was used at 22 since. Zambrano threw as many pitches as any starter in baseball, but he finished topped 5 in innings pitched once. He peaked at 25, and was only that good in flashes after '05. MLB attrition of talents like that just don't randomly happen most of the time, and alot of research in baseball goes into figuring out what went wrong so that those situations (Zambrano's contract for instance) can be avoided. Wood felt no urge to change his mechanics.

That stuff might be get chalked up to luck if you have no other incentive to dig deeper, but for people paid for this? Figuring out stuff like that is exactly what this FO was put here for, and it is supposed to be the major difference between the last FO and this one. This FO was hired heavily on the idea that they built one of the best analytical and player development systems in the game. Before the Rays were the in organization of the late 2000's, Boston was the standard for coaching and development in the minors and the majors in the early 2000's. No way do I expect them to just chalk last decade up to luck, nor do I think anyone can really believe that.

[Tom Emanski]

The thing is they tried this path already. Just 11 years ago this was the franchise giving Mark Prior 10 million dollars at the #2 overall pick. The team with Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, and Carlos Zambrano as three ace talents on the same roster, all in their early-mid 20's, will be 10 years old next year.

Gato, you are one of my favorite posters man, but you helped make our point for us by bringing up those young guys. I think you guys will see the Cubs start spending, once they add a few more young "core" type pieces. I am sure you remember the young talent on that team and how they went out and added the missing pieces. Man that was a good team and it should have won it all!

[KyleJRM]

But they didn't. That's why it's stupid to throw away seasons before the offseason has even began: because there's lots of different ways to win it all, but it happens so rarely you can never afford to waste entire seasons.

[Chi-Town Cubs25]

But they didn't. That's why it's stupid to throw away seasons before the offseason has even began: because there's lots of different ways to win it all, but it happens so rarely you can never afford to waste entire seasons.

You say that but when you give out long term expensive contracts than you are throwing away future seasons towards the back ends of those deals. Examples would be the Red Sox, Phillies, and Yankees. They are all on the decline now from spending too much and giving out too many years.

[KyleJRM]

You say that but when you give out long term expensive contracts than you are throwing away future seasons towards the back ends of those deals. Examples would be the Red Sox, Phillies, and Yankees. They are all on the decline now from spending too much and giving out too many years.

That's a bit of survivor's bias. You just have to wait until things go bad for a good team and then say, "a ha, that's their comeuppance that was due." And you don't even have to wait until they are bad, apparently, because the Yankees are somehow on your "decline" list.

[ChiSportsDaily]

We might as well just make this a two party system and start "political" parties because that's seriously what it's turning into. I'm thinking tortoises and hares...

[SenorGato]

Gato, you are one of my favorite posters man, but you helped make our point for us by bringing up those young guys. I think you guys will see the Cubs start spending, once they add a few more young "core" type pieces. I am sure you remember the young talent on that team and how they went out and added the missing pieces. Man that was a good team and it should have won it all!

That team was full of FA signings, and in 2004 they turned over even further and fielded an even more talented team.

Same for the 1993 Yankees. They lost way more games than a Yankee team should (1) in 1992, and went out and signed Paul O'Neil, Jimmy Key, and Wade Boggs in 1993. They got a little better in 1994 (alot better IIRC), then made the ALCS, and then finally would win a WS in 1996. Isn't that essentially the trajectory people have the Cubs on?

The 2008 Rays started or gave significant roles to 7 outside FAs that made up 20% of their payroll.

[Chi-Town Cubs25]

That's a bit of survivor's bias. You just have to wait until things go bad for a good team and then say, "a ha, that's their comeuppance that was due." And you don't even have to wait until they are bad, apparently, because the Yankees are somehow on your "decline" list.

I'd rather take the route of the Cardnials, Giants, and the Nationals. Have mostly players from your farm and spend on a few big money contracts when it puts you over the top. Sustained success is key.

[KyleJRM]

We might as well just make this a two party system and start "political" parties because that's seriously what it's turning into. I'm thinking tortoises and hares...

Back in the late 1990s, when we were taken over by an exciting young executive who had two WS rings and promised to build from the farm system and beef up our scouting ranks, they were known as "Buildicans" and "Nowacrats."

[SenorGato]

A year ago nobody was applauding the Nationals' deal with Werth. Now it's a non-issue unless he completely falls off a cliff and/maybe or the rest of the roster does.

[KyleJRM]

I'd rather take the route of the Cardnials, Giants, and the Nationals. Have mostly players from your farm and spend on a few big money contracts when it puts you over the top. Sustained success is key.

And this is the other end of the survivor's bias. Just take whichever teams have had some success recently and attribute your philosophy to them.

Those are three very different teams with very different philosophies, and they got their sustained success in very different ways.

Well, first, the Nationals don't have sustained success. They have one playoff season to go with nearly a decade of failure. That's not a good ratio, nor is it one we should imitate.

The Giants *always* try. Brian Sabean has been mocked in many circles because he refused to tank the team and do a strip-down rebuild. Instead, he kept signing veteran free agents.

The Cardinals have built their success through successful scouting and development *without* needing to tank seasons or give up on the present to do it. They can draft and develop well without convincing themselves they must have a top-2 pick to do it.

Everyone agrees you need a strong farm system. The question is whether you need to abandon the MLB team to get a strong farm system.

[SenorGato]

Everyone agrees you need a strong farm system. The question is whether you need to abandon the MLB team to get a strong farm system.

Especially with picks 9, 6, and 2 in the last three years. '11-'13 will likely be the most expensive haul of amateur talent the organization's history. All developing with the new coaches in the minor leagues of the organization, brought in by the guys who are supposed to know a thing or two about winning and developing talent simultaneously.

[Screwdriver]

Shouldn't we just start another thread with all this bs that posters can just go back to any time there hasn't been any major news for a few days? Call it "The Never Ending Debate About Which Path Is The Correct Path For Sustained Success Thread."

This is the "FA and Trade Ideas Thread." Let's get back to it!

[ReJo]

Does Francisco Liriano move the needle for you?

I could see that one happening fairly soon.

A Marlin appearance!

I'm gonna go ahead and put it in stone that Liriano is gonna be a Cub