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  1. #31
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    Rumor was he had Bos/CHC/NYY because he wanted to use that as leverage for an extension.

  2. #32
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    I don't think Rogers clearly believes what he wrote, but its one of those mind provoking ones rather than a lets go do it type.

    I would say a move like this would be foolish. Castro is an elite SS and is only 22 he is no where near polished and I would grade him out above Upton in the future. Elite SS's are not a dime a dozen and the Cubs ironically appear to have 2 in their clutches. Baez is going to be an elite player, but still looks to have the offensive ability to handle 3B or a corner OF spot. While he has yet to play at either spot a move seem inevitable. The Cubs are showing the ability to have one of the most promising IF groups in a long time. Rizzo, Barney, Castro, and Baez can be a special group why tamper with that. If your going to deal away Castro you better be sure its for a Cy Young potential starter not an All-Star caliber OF. You have plenty of talent in the OF marinating in the minors with you top talents in Almora and Soler and your two who should be solid players in Jackson and Szczur.

    Rogers mentions shorten the rebuilding period, but what happens if Castro progresses into a 20/20 guy or a 20/30 guy. Castro is bound to hit around .300 again. He should easily get a 3 WAR or higher. Its not out of the question because he has already had a BA of .300 or higher. The only reason he wasn't there was because they were developing his patience and making him a more polished hitter. He hit 14 HR's and adding 6 HR's is not out of the question. In addition. He's already stolen 25 so 5 more is not ridiculousness.

    If Baez pans out as good a Rogers writes how does it not make sense to keep both Castro and Baez? Baez already is showing the potential offensively and simply needs polishing with the glove. Let some other team take their run at a guy who without a doubt is talented, but in the long run it would be a poor personnel decision. Upton is an amazing player, but Castro is 22 and amazing is has the ability to bring much higher value than Upton in the long run.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rynoplasty View Post
    You look at the players who had 500 hits by age 22 and most of them are in the Hall of Fame. Same with the players who hit .300 in a qualifying season at age 20.
    I maintain that his career will been par with rentaria's. I hope I'm wrong I just haven't seen anytHing that makes me think he's going to turn into a superstar.

    http://www.rrstar.com/blogs/matttrow...hits-by-age-22.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by KyleJRM View Post
    When Edgar Renteria/Garry Templeton is the floor people point to when they are trying to paint a negative picture of you, you know you are in pretty great shape.

    And they aren't even good comps, just people glancing at B-R's similarity scores and calling it a day.
    I don't think that's the floor I think that's what is likely. I agree not that bad, but I don't think he's a player youy build a champion around.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

  5. #35
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    It's a weak comp pushed by people who decide "Well, I just don't like Castro" and try to find ways to justify it.

    bWAR age 20-22 seasons:

    Edgar Renteria: 2.2
    Starlin Castro: 7.9

    They aren't comparable. I don't know if Castro's bat will ever take him to superstardom. But the Renteria comp is nonsensical.

    The Templeton one makes a little more sense, and it's a good reminder that SS's can very often age quickly, especially if they have leg injuries.

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by flips333 View Post
    I maintain that his career will been par with rentaria's. I hope I'm wrong I just haven't seen anytHing that makes me think he's going to turn into a superstar.

    http://www.rrstar.com/blogs/matttrow...hits-by-age-22.
    How about his overall improvement in just about everything? His BABIP was weirdly low for him last year. If his BABIP was where it had been every other year in his career (he had that really bad point when we switched hitting coaches and he was adjusting to taking pitches) we're looking at a season of .313/.353/.460.

    Last year he had a bad spell BABIP wise that raped his BA, but otherwise he improved in his walk rate (by a TON after he adjusted to the new hitting coach), his power spiked again (.145ISO) and his defense improved. And he's only 22. There is literally no reason to think he won't be a superstar.

    It's not guarantee, but if last year's walk rate and ISO are his peak and we assume he's still a .305 type hitter that's still a .305/.360/.450 SS. That's amazing.

    Also note: Rentaria didn't have 3 seasons as good as Castro's rookie year until he was 26. Castro has had 2 better than that already. Rentaria didn't have 3 seasons as good as Castro has (9.1WAR between 3 seasons) until after his age 27 season. And Rentaria only has 5 seasons in his career at 2.5+ WAR. Castro already has 2.
    Last edited by Doogolas; 11-11-2012 at 01:26 AM.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by flips333 View Post
    I don't think that's the floor I think that's what is likely. I agree not that bad, but I don't think he's a player youy build a champion around.
    Ooph.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    How about his overall improvement in just about everything? His BABIP was weirdly low for him last year. If his BABIP was where it had been every other year in his career (he had that really bad point when we switched hitting coaches and he was adjusting to taking pitches) we're looking at a season of .313/.353/.460.

    Last year he had a bad spell BABIP wise that raped his BA, but otherwise he improved in his walk rate (by a TON after he adjusted to the new hitting coach), his power spiked again (.145ISO) and his defense improved. And he's only 22. There is literally no reason to think he won't be a superstar.

    It's not guarantee, but if last year's walk rate and ISO are his peak and we assume he's still a .305 type hitter that's still a .305/.360/.450 SS. That's amazing.

    Also note: Rentaria didn't have 3 seasons as good as Castro's rookie year until he was 26. Castro has had 2 better than that already. Rentaria didn't have 3 seasons as good as Castro has (9.1WAR between 3 seasons) until after his age 27 season. And Rentaria only has 5 seasons in his career at 2.5+ WAR. Castro already has 2.
    A BABIP of 315 is not weirdly low just because he had two where it was absurdly high (340s). If you think that is going to hold up for his career you really do think highly of Castro. To maintain a 340 BABIP over a career you need to either: never lose a step (which is pretty much impossible for anyone not Rickey henderson),or be incredibly skilled with placement (the type of people that maintain this for a career are the rod carews, ty cobbs and tony gwynns of this world).

    I don't disagree that Castro can be a 300 hitter (for as long as his speed holds up). But I don't think the mental aspect of the game is ever going to come around for him. Does running into outs get counted in WAR? Does mental lapses with what to do with the baseball get counted in WAR? (honestly unsure)

    I like Castro he's good, I just don't think he's championship building material. If he could be packaged for someone who is I take it (NOT UPTON)... but quality SS are rare so unless something comes along that is stupendous I hold on to the guy with what is one of the most awesome baseball names ever.

    To Gato... I think we can win a championship with Castro at the SS position, I just don't think he's ever going to be the #3 hole hitter some want him to be...
    Last edited by flips333; 11-11-2012 at 11:17 AM.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

  9. #39
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    Does running into outs get counted in WAR? Does mental lapses with what to do with the baseball get counted in WAR? (honestly unsure)
    No, but it probably would affect more than just Castros WAR amongst the leagues very good players.

    He ran into an out what...one or twice this year? Oh noes.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by flips333 View Post
    I don't disagree that Castro can be a 300 hitter (for as long as his speed holds up). But I don't think the mental aspect of the game is ever going to come around for him. Does running into outs get counted in WAR? Does mental lapses with what to do with the baseball get counted in WAR? (honestly unsure)

    I like Castro he's good, I just don't think he's championship building material. If he could be packaged for someone who is I take it (NOT UPTON)... but quality SS are rare so unless something comes along that is stupendous I hold on to the guy with what is one of the most awesome baseball names ever.
    Actually yes, running into outs DO factor into WAR. Castro is basically a neutral baserunner over the course of his career.

    Yes, mental lapses also get counted, as the defensive metrics used have nothing to do with things as simple as errors.

    Castro is an incredible player, and EVERYONE has mental lapses. One of the best defensive 2B in the game forgot about the outs in an inning too. That happens to everyone. And he's 22, he'll be 23 next year, everybody has issues here and there with the mental side. It's already come around in huge strides with his defense. He's already very likely a great player, like an .820OPS SS with above average defensive ability.

    Assuming he's like most players and his power still grows a bit, we're talking about a great hitting, above average fielding SS. Will his mental side of the game every be Derek Jeter-esque? No. Of course not, but he can certainly get to a level of fairly neutral to above average there, likely have a very similar stick and DEFINITELY be better defensively.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  11. #41
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    Baserunning and defensive skills do get factored into WAR. So yes, in short, any errors he makes in the field and on the base paths will negatively effect his WAR.

    He's 22. Lets wait a little longer before getting on him about his mental ability and what/where it can get to. Just last offseason people wanted to move him to 2b or 3b because of his defense and he was one of the league leaders at SS UZR in 2012. He's proven he can make strides where people decide he can't.
    #WhyNot?

    People ask me, "Why here? Why Kentucky?", I said "Why not"? It can be done here. It will be done here. Lay the foundation. Recruit and develop. Prepare to win. Day by day. Play by play. A new era of high performance. Why Kentucky? Why not? -Mark Stoops

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Baserunning and defensive skills do get factored into WAR. So yes, in short, any errors he makes in the field and on the base paths will negatively effect his WAR.

    He's 22. Lets wait a little longer before getting on him about his mental ability and what/where it can get to. Just last offseason people wanted to move him to 2b or 3b because of his defense and he was one of the league leaders at SS UZR in 2012. He's proven he can make strides where people decide he can't.
    I know that SB and CS are factored in and I know UZR is as well. but I'm still unsure that mental mistakes on the basepaths (not a CS, but just running into an out, or not running when you should) get factored. I also don't know how mental gafs get factored into UZR (getting a guy out at first when you could take out the lead runner, getting one when you could have gotten two).

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Doogolas View Post
    Actually yes, running into outs DO factor into WAR. Castro is basically a neutral baserunner over the course of his career.

    Yes, mental lapses also get counted, as the defensive metrics used have nothing to do with things as simple as errors.

    Castro is an incredible player, and EVERYONE has mental lapses. One of the best defensive 2B in the game forgot about the outs in an inning too. That happens to everyone. And he's 22, he'll be 23 next year, everybody has issues here and there with the mental side. It's already come around in huge strides with his defense. He's already very likely a great player, like an .820OPS SS with above average defensive ability.

    Assuming he's like most players and his power still grows a bit, we're talking about a great hitting, above average fielding SS. Will his mental side of the game every be Derek Jeter-esque? No. Of course not, but he can certainly get to a level of fairly neutral to above average there, likely have a very similar stick and DEFINITELY be better defensively.
    Two questions:

    With his speed should Castro be a neutral base runner? I mean we are talking about the guy who lead the league in CS last year and has a 65% success rate on steals with top tier speed. Given that I doubt his base running is actually neutral... and even if it is that's BAD when you have as much speed as he does.

    Do you still think he will put up a 340 BABIP for his career?
    Last edited by flips333; 11-11-2012 at 11:31 AM.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

  14. #44
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    How many times would you say Castro ran into an out this year? How unique is that number?

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by flips333 View Post
    I know that SB and CS are factored in and I know UZR is as well. but I'm still unsure that mental mistakes on the basepaths (not a CS, but just running into an out, or not running when you should) get factored. I also don't know how mental gafs get factored into UZR (getting a guy out at first when you could take out the lead runner, getting one when you could have gotten two).
    Those things happen so infrequently (as Gato mentioned....seriously how many times do you even remember him doing those things?) that they really....don't matter.

    Fans make a bigger issue out of it than it really, truly is.
    #WhyNot?

    People ask me, "Why here? Why Kentucky?", I said "Why not"? It can be done here. It will be done here. Lay the foundation. Recruit and develop. Prepare to win. Day by day. Play by play. A new era of high performance. Why Kentucky? Why not? -Mark Stoops

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