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  1. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Your comments are incomplete, the truth is:

    Faulk - his BEST 3 years (by far) w/ Warner '99-01
    Bruce - his BEST 3 years (by far) w/ Warner '99-'01
    Holt - 2 of his 3 best years with Warner '99-'01
    Hakim - best 3 years in the NFL 1999-2001.
    Conwell - best year with Warner (2001)
    Fitzgerald - best two years with Warner
    Boldin - best two years '08 and '06 (Warner played 7 games that year - including a 10 catch game)
    Breaston - two best years by far under Warner

    you are REALLY reaching..

    * Bruce in '95 and '96 AVERAGED 102 Catches/1560 Yrds/10 TD. 2 of his 3 highest yrds totals, and 2 of his 4 top catch totals. He THAN played only 17 games the next 2 yrs and than played from Warner from 99-04 and by that time Bruce was 32.

    CONCLUSION- The fact he put up 203 catches/3119 Yrds/20 TD's in just a 2 yr stretch proves to me he was ALREADY a beast.



    * Holt- He played with Warner from ages 23-28 so naturally he was going to have bigger yrs with Warner HOWEVER..

    2002- Warner started only 7 games yet holt had 91 catches/1302 yrds

    2003- Warner only started ONE game and Holt had a 117 reception/1696 Yrd/12 TD season. He made 1st team all pro (only allpro in his career)

    2006- Holt has 93 catches/1188 yrds/10 TD

    top 3 recepton seasons- 03, 05, 04...Warner started 1 games out of that 3 yr stretch for stl.

    Top 3 yrd seasons- '03, 2000, 04- Warner started 13 games over that stretch for stl.




    * Fitzgerald- He has AVERAGED 85 Catches/1,274 Yrds/7 TD's in his 2 full seasons after Kurt, has been named probowl both seasons since kurt. Fitzgerald is also accepted as being a top 5 WR in the NFL.

    Conclusion- Fitz is a beast and is racking up probowl births with the likes of skelton throwing him the ball.


    You are REALLY reaching with saying Kurt helped out Fitz/Bruce/Holt/Boldin much..All 4 were VERY Good WR's..






    Excuse me, but are you counting all Arizona games as Dome? Starting in 2006 they played in Sun Devil Stadium which has a retractable roof used early and late in the season primarily, break it and the other retractables Warner has played out of the "Dome" category when they are open.
    I used yahoo split stats..always seemed to be pretty accurate.


    Furthermore, what is the average QB's QBR drop off on the road compared to home? You have to factor that in as well.

    idk, but i do know his splits are very extreme...more so than most.



    Conclusion- You are really reaching on your arguments. Saying Warner deserves to be in the hof is 1 thing...To say he didn't have Amazing talent at the WR position while not bennifiting from the dome more than ur avg qb? Thats another...

    IMO if you gave Warner AVERAGE Talent in his NFL Career...He's not going into the HOF (And he wouldn't even be a fringe guy). The fact he played in a dome with MULTIPLE beast WR's on 2 seperate occasions? That allowed him to have 3-4 GREAT yrs and 2-3 Very good ones (Along those lines anyways).
    Last edited by Bos_Sports4Life; 11-19-2012 at 06:23 PM.

  2. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    you are REALLY reaching..
    I'm reaching for nothing. Go look at football-references AV (approximate value) stats, and sort by that. It looks at catches, yards, YPC, TD's etc, and spits out a number.

    CONCLUSION- The fact he put up 203 catches/3119 Yrds/20 TD's in just a 2 yr stretch proves to me he was ALREADY a beast.
    Who cares if he was a beast? Bruce had his 3 best years with Warner. FACT.

    2002- Warner started only 7 games yet holt had 91 catches/1302 yrds

    2003- Warner only started ONE game and Holt had a 117 reception/1696 Yrd/12 TD season. He made 1st team all pro (only allpro in his career)

    2006- Holt has 93 catches/1188 yrds/10 TD
    Who cares? Holt had has best and 3rd best year with Warner in the '99-'01 time frame. As has already been pointed out Warner was often injured from 2002 thru 2006 inclusive.

    top 3 recepton seasons- 03, 05, 04...Warner started 1 games out of that 3 yr stretch for stl.
    But that doesn't mean those were his best years.

    * Fitzgerald- He has AVERAGED 85 Catches/1,274 Yrds/7 TD's in his 2 full seasons after Kurt, has been named probowl both seasons since kurt. Fitzgerald is also accepted as being a top 5 WR in the NFL.
    Subjective awards often come after a player has been great for a time. That means nothing. Fitzgeralds best 2 years are clearly with Warner.

    Conclusion- Fitz is a beast and is racking up probowl births with the likes of skelton throwing him the ball.
    Conclusion. Fitzerald was never better then when he was playing with Warner. FACT.

    You are REALLY reaching with saying Kurt helped out Fitz/Bruce/Holt/Boldin much..All 4 were VERY Good WR's..
    Look up the comprehensive stats, not cherry pick TD's here or total receptions there.

    I used yahoo split stats..always seemed to be pretty accurate.
    football-reference seems to have an edge to me.

    idk, but i do know his splits are very extreme...more so than most.
    You don't know what happens when you take away the games where the roof was open in Arizona, but you "know" his splits were extreme? Coming to a POV before the facts are in, leads to mistakes I find.

    Conclusion- You are really reaching on your arguments. Saying Warner deserves to be in the hof is 1 thing...To say he didn't have Amazing talent at the WR position while not bennifiting from the dome more than ur avg qb? Thats another...
    No we are down to average QB's and Domes? I thought it was extreme just a moment ago. I have no doubt that Warner was helped by playing in a Dome. But you have failed to demonstrate how far outside the norm it might be.

    My arguments are dead on. I should have probably mentioned AV in my last post to save you time, but once you check it out I'm pretty sure you'll have to retract your description of my arguments.

    IMO if you gave Warner AVERAGE Talent in his NFL Career...He's not going into the HOF (And he wouldn't even be a fringe guy). The fact he played in a dome with MULTIPLE beast WR's on 2 seperate occasions? That allowed him to have 3-4 GREAT yrs and 2-3 Very good ones (Along those lines anyways).
    That's an opinion. You've started with that and appear to be ending with it, but your facts in the middle have been found wanting or simply wrong. Make a coherent post about his games in the Dome vs not in the Dome vs other QB's of the Dome era (obvious HOF'ers and not included).

    I have no idea why it matters if a WR was established or not before Warner had them, but it's clear that with Warner two different excellent groups of WR's TE's and RB's did better than they did with any other team and/or QB - and that's a straight and bald fact.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  3. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I'm reaching for nothing. Go look at football-references AV (approximate value) stats, and sort by that. It looks at catches, yards, YPC, TD's etc, and spits out a number.

    You are REALLY overrating AV, its designed to be a rough estimation...And is a pretty flawed stat..It's not even close to being as good as winshares are in basketball for example.


    AV is NOT the end all to be all, or anywhere close.



    In '95 Bruce had 119 catches, 1781 yrds, 13 TD Which gets a "12 AV"
    Yet in '01 he had 64 catches/1106 Yrds/6 TD which gets him a "13 AV"? Dont tell me his '01 season is better...

    He had 55 LESS Catches, 675 LESS Yards and 7 LESS TD's.


    Who cares if he was a beast? Bruce had his 3 best years with Warner. FACT.

    FICTION...




    Who cares? Holt had has best and 3rd best year with Warner in the '99-'01 time frame. As has already been pointed out Warner was often injured from 2002 thru 2006 inclusive.
    Holt had TWO 1600+ yrd seasons, SIX 1300+ yrd seasons and EIGHT 1180+ yrd seasons, If warner made a diff it was OBVIOUSLY marginal.



    Subjective awards often come after a player has been great for a time. That means nothing. Fitzgeralds best 2 years are clearly with Warner.
    Yes, so Warner is better than skelton? obviously...Hardly means much.

    Fitz is known as a top 3 WR in football..





    Look up the comprehensive stats, not cherry pick TD's here or total receptions there.


    You don't know what happens when you take away the games where the roof was open in Arizona, but you "know" his splits were extreme? Coming to a POV before the facts are in, leads to mistakes I find.
    Either way..

    I think you are still reaching, If its a dome and its open? the conditions will be great, now wont they?









    That's an opinion. You've started with that and appear to be ending with it, but your facts in the middle have been found wanting or simply wrong. Make a coherent post about his games in the Dome vs not in the Dome vs other QB's of the Dome era (obvious HOF'ers and not included).
    I have checked splits of countless other QB's..

    Warners splits are probably the most extreme I have seen..


    I have no idea why it matters if a WR was established or not before Warner had them, but it's clear that with Warner two different excellent groups of WR's TE's and RB's did better than they did with any other team and/or QB - and that's a straight and bald fact.
    But this means nothing as neither team replaced warner with anyone worth mention..

    That doesn't change the fact the 4 stars he had would have been consistant 1,000+ yrd receivers in there prime..




    IMO you may not share this...But when judging QB's you have too look at variables which does include weather/Weapons..

    Manning for example beat the **** out of brady on the stat sheet from '01-'06 due to manning having Harrison/Wayne/James/Clark among others while Brady had Brown/Patten/Givens/Branch..Patriots catch up to indy on the offensive side in '07 and Brady's stats explode...Weapons make a HUGE diff..

    And simply disscounting the fact he ALWAYS had 2 Elite WR's + A Dome is absurd imo..




    Now, Saying he's a HOF'er due to having a few elite yrs (even with the help), Made 3 SB's and was money typically in the playoffs? That would make sense...

    But don't tell me Holt/Bruce/Fitz/Aquin weren't probowl/allpro calliber.

  4. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    You are REALLY overrating AV, its designed to be a rough estimation...And is a pretty flawed stat..It's not even close to being as good as winshares are in basketball for example.
    Nice story. Funny though that in every name that you brought up Warner keeps scoring big, and in some cases names you didn't bring up. What's up with that? Is there a secret Warner conspiracy among the guys behind AV?

    AV is NOT the end all to be all, or anywhere close.
    It's better then cherry picking receptions of one guy, TD's of another, yards of someone else, and virtually ignoring YPC like you did (when those stats favored Warner they tended to disappear). Nothing like form fitting the facts to support your position. I didn't have to manipulate anything to make my point here. AV right out of the box.

    Fitz is known as a top 3 WR in football..
    And who helped put him on the map first?

    I think you are still reaching, If its a dome and its open? the conditions will be great, now wont they?
    Then you better knock down Marino, Young, Montana, Brady on nice days, etc. and so on. The fact is, when the Dome is open, its not a Dome, hence cannot be counted as a Dome on a purely factual basis. What are the criteria in Arizona? Do they close it when it's 45 degrees? 105? Raining? GI know they keep stats on good weather vs bad weather for QB's. Brady and Starr are two of the greats in bad weather, other guys even with long careers had very few games in bad condidtions - a warm weather team in a good weather division for instance.

    Until you can generate numbers your opinion is just that, and nothing more.

    I have checked splits of countless other QB's..

    Warners splits are probably the most extreme I have seen..
    Then why are they not posted here?

    But this means nothing as neither team replaced warner with anyone worth mention..
    Bulger wasn't too shabby as I recall.

    That doesn't change the fact the 4 stars he had would have been consistant 1,000+ yrd receivers in there prime..
    But your original point was that they were great before Warner (impossible in several cases BTW since they were rookies). My point is that they played better with him than others - which is more important.

    IMO you may not share this...But when judging QB's you have too look at variables which does include weather/Weapons..
    I do agree. I also believe you have to look at the facts with objectivity trying to hold off letting your opinion guide the direction of your stat finding and presentation.

    Manning for example beat the **** out of brady on the stat sheet from '01-'06 due to manning having Harrison/Wayne/James/Clark among others while Brady had Brown/Patten/Givens/Branch..Patriots catch up to indy on the offensive side in '07 and Brady's stats explode...Weapons make a HUGE diff..
    So do major changes in emphasis on the rules.

    And simply disscounting the fact he ALWAYS had 2 Elite WR's + A Dome is absurd imo..
    Trying to state things with certainty without evidence is sloppy or even worse IMO.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-20-2012 at 07:03 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  5. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Nice story. Funny though that in every name that you brought up Warner keeps scoring big, and in some cases names you didn't bring up. What's up with that? Is there a secret Warner conspiracy among the guys behind AV?
    He could have "made" some of those guys listed simmilar to brady "making" caldwell in '06..

    But he did NOT "make" Bruce,Fitz,Holt, Bolden...


    It's better then cherry picking receptions of one guy, TD's of another, yards of someone else, and virtually ignoring YPC like you did (when those stats favored Warner they tended to disappear). Nothing like form fitting the facts to support your position. I didn't have to manipulate anything to make my point here. AV right out of the box.

    You have YET to explain how..

    Season A (64 Catch/1106 yrd/6 TD season ) gets a higher AV than season B (119 catcges/1781 Yrds/13 TD's)


    Im taking season A 100 out of 100 times...



    And who helped put him on the map first?
    Thats merely a coincidence with the fact warner played with him basically at the very beginning (2nd yr?)

    He was the 3RD PICK in the draft and is putting up probowl calliber seasons with very meh QB's....

    Warner didn't make him one of the best at the WR Position, hes the best on his own.



    Then you better knock down Marino, Young, Montana, Brady on nice days, etc. and so on. The fact is, when the Dome is open, its not a Dome, hence cannot be counted as a Dome on a purely factual basis. What are the criteria in Arizona? Do they close it when it's 45 degrees? 105? Raining? GI know they keep stats on good weather vs bad weather for QB's. Brady and Starr are two of the greats in bad weather, other guys even with long careers had very few games in bad condidtions - a warm weather team in a good weather division for instance.
    Check Warners splits for outside games, It's not very pretty...

    Until you can generate numbers your opinion is just that, and nothing more.
    I have used Yahoo splits, and you were STILL not happy..






    But your original point was that they were great before Warner (impossible in several cases BTW since they were rookies). My point is that they played better with him than others - which is more important.
    All played Very good/Great EITHER Before or After...

    In Fitz case he was the 3rd pick of the draft and warner got him young...He's remained wide accepted top 4 WR in the NFL

    I do agree. I also believe you have to look at the facts with objectivity trying to hold off letting your opinion guide the direction of your stat finding and presentation.
    Im EXTREMLY objective and really 0 bias excists...I don't mind warner in the least bit..

    However, I believe he was always surrounded by 2 very good WR's with a dome which helped pad his numbers.





    Trying to state things with certainty without evidence is sloppy or even worse IMO.
    What isn't certain?

    Im VERY certain Holt/Bruce/Fitz/Aquain are very Good-Great WR's
    Im VERY certain the Dome helped a pretty decent amount.

    You make it sound like those guys had big # dropoffs without warner when in fact, They either had better yrs without him (Bruce), or had pretty simmilar #'s with only a very tiny decrease.

  6. #111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    You have YET to explain how..

    Season A (64 Catch/1106 yrd/6 TD season ) gets a higher AV than season B (119 catcges/1781 Yrds/13 TD's)
    I don't have to explain it. See: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518

    You use WS in 1960's basketball even though it's been shown to you to be flawed.

    Thats merely a coincidence with the fact warner played with him basically at the very beginning (2nd yr?)
    Oh good god. GMAFB.

    Warner didn't make him one of the best at the WR Position, hes the best on his own.
    I never said Warner made him, I said he helped Fitzy be great, and that he QB'd when Fitz had his best years. Both true.

    Check Warners splits for outside games, It's not very pretty...
    This is the 4th time at least you've said this, but did you break it down by year (so we could see the effect of injuries on him), or NOT count Arizona as a Dome when it wasn't closed. Until you do both, your argument is without the needed solidity to be taken as anything but the opinion of a person who has an axe to grind.

    I have used Yahoo splits, and you were STILL not happy..
    Depends on what they do with Arizona. Depends on other QB's of his time outside v inside. You said you've looked at untold QB's in checking this out. I don't want "untold" I want 3-4 HOF and 3-4 near HOF type QB's as comps.

    All played Very good/Great EITHER Before or After...
    Not on my list they didn't.

    In Fitz case he was the 3rd pick of the draft and warner got him young...He's remained wide accepted top 4 WR in the NFL
    Fitzgerald is IMO the best WR in the game today. But Warner got more from him than others, similar to how Brady got stuff from WR's that they couldn't repeat elsewhere. Guess what - that's what great QB's do.

    Im EXTREMLY objective and really 0 bias excists...I don't mind warner in the least bit..
    Yeah I can tell by how you jumped my casual post about him, or going back to the tong war of the Bill Russell is GOAT thread which someone there showed to be an implacable foe of people that had actually seen Russell, and people that could argue Russell right out of that. Who was that BTW?

    However, I believe he was always surrounded by 2 very good WR's with a dome which helped pad his numbers.
    Some years he had 4-5 good/great WR/TE/RB. Now go see how they did before and after Warner.

    Im VERY certain the Dome helped a pretty decent amount.
    That's a major retrenchment I must say. I agree, but before this you were claiming that he was one of the most extreme QB's in this dimension.

    You make it sound like those guys had big # dropoffs without warner when in fact, They either had better yrs without him (Bruce), or had pretty simmilar #'s with only a very tiny decrease.
    That's how you read it. AV shows what I said, nearly everyone on my list had their 3 best or 2 out of 3 best seasons per AV with Warner - and it wasn't just the '99-'01 group, it was also the 2nd group as well.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  7. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post

    Fitzgerald is IMO the best WR in the game today. But Warner got more from him than others, similar to how Brady got stuff from WR's that they couldn't repeat elsewhere. Guess what - that's what great QB's do.
    Even "good" and "average" QB's can make players around them better. Fitzgerald is a baller and any QB that can't get the ball to him on a consistent basis is not a starter in this league.

    I'm not sure AZ has even had a "average" or above QB other than Warner.

    Skelton? Kolb? I'd hesitate to call those guys average.

    1400 yds, 17 yd/catch, with 8 TD in 2011, Kolb started 9 games, Skelton started 7.

    His best season with Warner is only slightly better than his season last year.

    Fitz certainly helped Warner more than Warner helped Fitz. Just my opinion.

  8. #113
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patriot Pride View Post
    Even "good" and "average" QB's can make players around them better. Fitzgerald is a baller and any QB that can't get the ball to him on a consistent basis is not a starter in this league.

    I'm not sure AZ has even had a "average" or above QB other than Warner.

    Skelton? Kolb? I'd hesitate to call those guys average.

    1400 yds, 17 yd/catch, with 8 TD in 2011, Kolb started 9 games, Skelton started 7.

    His best season with Warner is only slightly better than his season last year.

    Fitz certainly helped Warner more than Warner helped Fitz. Just my opinion.
    Warner is the leading passer for the Cardinals in 4 of the last 7 full seasons, so there isn't a lot of time to get great QB's in house.

    Who came after Starr? Bartowski.

    Who came after Marino? Fiedler.

    After Elway? Griese.

    After Kelly? Flutie.

    The point is, Warner not being followed by anyone important isn't rare, nor should it be held against him.

    Bulger followed Warner in St Louis, and had 3 years in a row in the top 8 QB passer rating, and he didn't do as well as Warner did.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  9. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    I don't have to explain it. See: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?page_id=518

    You use WS in 1960's basketball even though it's been shown to you to be flawed.

    I use it as a PART of my argument, not as my WHOLE argument.

    Winshares in baseball for example can be talked about, but it can't be 100% end all to be all..








    This is the 4th time at least you've said this, but did you break it down by year (so we could see the effect of injuries on him), or NOT count Arizona as a Dome when it wasn't closed. Until you do both, your argument is without the needed solidity to be taken as anything but the opinion of a person who has an axe to grind.

    Like I said, I could care less about Manning..I really don't. Never beat my team in a game that mattered, never a douche really (that i can remember) and Is a nice story ect..

    However, According to the splits I have seen..It clearly said Dome so I have the right to assume it means dome when it has been closed. I also noticed his road/Home splits not being to extreme while his Dome/Outside stats are, Gives me even more of a reason to assume "dome" means it was closed.


    Depends on what they do with Arizona. Depends on other QB's of his time outside v inside. You said you've looked at untold QB's in checking this out. I don't want "untold" I want 3-4 HOF and 3-4 near HOF type QB's as comps.

    Im Too lazy to do some HUGE list, However ill give the HOF'ers of the past 15 seasons..

    I'll look at the best of the best 15 yrs or so

    P.Manning-
    Indoors- 231 td/102 pick/98.3 QBR
    Outdoors- 192 tds/103 pick/92.6 QBR
    DIFF: -5.7

    Brady
    Indoors- 29 td's/13 picks/103.1 QBR
    Outdoors- 292 td's/105 picks/96.3 QBR
    Diff: -6.8

    Favre
    Indoors- 105 td/61 picks/92.4 QBR
    Outdoors- 366 td's/236 picks/85.5 QBR
    Diff- 6.9

    Elway
    indoors- 14 td's/6 picks/94.0 QBR
    Outside- 103 TD's/53 picks/87.4 QBR
    Diff -6.6

    Brees
    Indoors- 156 td's/74 picks/99.8 QBR
    Outdoors- 154 td's/81 picks/90.0
    Diff- 9.8

    Warner
    Indoors- 133 TD's/59 picks/102.8 QBR
    Outdoors- 75 td's/69 picks/84.4 QBR
    Diff- 18.4




    Fitzgerald is IMO the best WR in the game today. But Warner got more from him than others, similar to how Brady got stuff from WR's that they couldn't repeat elsewhere. Guess what - that's what great QB's do.
    Good QB's can do the same...

    Give Romo a set of WR's than have him retire and give Skelton that same set of WR's. Sure, the WR's will play better with Romo...Does that make Romo a HOF'er? No...It simply means hes better than the QB who replaced him.




    Yeah I can tell by how you jumped my casual post about him, or going back to the tong war of the Bill Russell is GOAT thread which someone there showed to be an implacable foe of people that had actually seen Russell, and people that could argue Russell right out of that. Who was that BTW?
    * You said yourself you watched Russell from about '67 on...Basically his decline phase.

    It's like me saying I watched KG from '09 on so I know what his prime was like, Thats a bit absurd.

    * Well respected people have Russell as a top 5 NBA player of all time. Heck, simmons ranks him 2nd All time

    * You don't rank russell high due to him playing in the 50-'s-60's where the game wasn't as developed/strong as it is now...However, You rank Otto in ur top 2?




    That's how you read it. AV shows what I said, nearly everyone on my list had their 3 best or 2 out of 3 best seasons per AV with Warner - and it wasn't just the '99-'01 group, it was also the 2nd group as well.

    "AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

    The CREATOR of the stat says that for god sakes, Yet someone using that stat is using it as the end all to be all?


    SEASON A :119 Catches/1,781 Yrds/13 TD's
    SEASON B: 64 Catches/1106 Yrds/6 TD's

    Im sure EVEN the stat stat creator would pick Season A 10 times out of 10...Its' not even arguable. Yet you pick Season B? Thats crazy talk

  10. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    However, According to the splits I have seen..It clearly said Dome so I have the right to assume it means dome when it has been closed. I also noticed his road/Home splits not being to extreme while his Dome/Outside stats are, Gives me even more of a reason to assume "dome" means it was closed.
    The right? Look at the game counts. It doesn't make sense, whomever collated it counted Arizona as a Dome period - which is false.

    Let's see the breakdown season to season - if its consistent he gets more of a bulge from the Dome than the others listed below. It should be noted he also got the highest QBR of any QB Dome or outside in the Dome. That's pretty good. His outdoor numbers are almost the same as Favre, and near Elway, so he holds up pretty well in the top group of QB's over the past 25 years.

    Give Romo a set of WR's than have him retire and give Skelton that same set of WR's. Sure, the WR's will play better with Romo...Does that make Romo a HOF'er? No...It simply means hes better than the QB who replaced him.
    Nice try. Warner is the 8th rated QB all time in QB Rating. Even if his stats were outdoors only (as your source shows it), he'd be 25th all time, ahead of the following HOF'ers:

    Jim Kelly
    Roger Staubach
    Sonny Jurgensen
    Len Dawson
    Troy Aikman
    Warren Moon
    Bart Starr
    Dan Fouts
    John Elway
    John Unitas
    Bob Griese

    If his QBR was the average amount as the other 5 guys you give over his outdoors numbers and he played an equal amount of games in both conditions, his QBR would be 88.03, making him 13th all time instead of 7th all time. BTW as of today, he's #2 all time for retired QB's behind only Steve Young.

    Now consider that between home games and games away in a Dome, he'd be up over a 55/45% Dome/Outside split which would move him up even higher. Without doing the math, probably moves up to #11. Some of the guys ahead of him will drop before they retire pushing him up from #8 or #11 or #13 - whichever ranking one chooses to use.

    Also you have to add Marino and Graham to that list above at #8, #11, or #13. Of HOF QB's only Young is above his career 8th place QBR. Only Montana and Young are above Warner at #11 or #13.

    All this effort to move him from #8 to #11 or #13... hahha. Warner is still high up in the HOF conversation. Unlike guys like Fouts, Moon, Dawson, Jurgensen, and Kelly he actually won a SB ring.

    * You said yourself you watched Russell from about '67 on...Basically his decline phase.
    Fall of 1965 actually started watched games regularly. He wasn't in decline then. I also grew up deep in the Russell mystique, far denser than any Celt player since outside of Bird. It took a long time to escape it, but yes I'm an objective Celtic fan that knows Russell isn't the GOAT. Just like I know that Rondo has never busted into the top 5 of PG, and his distractions and childish behavior have caused all of his coaches since he was a Freshman in college and GM to want to be rid of him, and to say so publicly.

    * Well respected people have Russell as a top 5 NBA player of all time. Heck, simmons ranks him 2nd All time
    Accomplishment wise it's very hard to keep Russell out of the top 5. But in that thread you argued he was the GOAT, that's not the same thing as here, do try and keep the comparisons straight.

    * You don't rank russell high due to him playing in the 50-'s-60's where the game wasn't as developed/strong as it is now...However, You rank Otto in ur top 2?
    As a player to play today? No Graham would never cut it, and Russell would be a D only back-up at best. My lists for QB's also include the split list - broken at 1970 (merger), and of course Graham isn't there. As you know in the NBA my split comes at or near 1976.l

    "AV is not meant to be a be-all end-all metric. Football stat lines just do not come close to capturing all the contributions of a player the way they do in baseball and basketball. If one player is a 16 and another is a 14, we can't be very confident that the 16AV player actually had a better season than the 14AV player. But I am pretty confident that the collection of all players with 16AV played better, as an entire group, than the collection of all players with 14AV."

    The CREATOR of the stat says that for god sakes, Yet someone using that stat is using it as the end all to be all?
    I'm not putting a lot of time into this. AV for my list of WR/TE/RB (more comprehensive then yours) shows a decided uptick when Warner played with them compared to other QB's - including Bulger who is no slouch holding the #26 QBR all time slot down. While one or two of the AV numbers might need to be fixed, they are not all wrong. Far from it.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-21-2012 at 05:12 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  11. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    The right? Look at the game counts. It doesn't make sense, whomever collated it counted Arizona as a Dome period - which is false.

    Let's see the breakdown season to season - if its consistent he gets more of a bulge from the Dome than the others listed below. It should be noted he also got the highest QBR of any QB Dome or outside in the Dome. That's pretty good. His outdoor numbers are almost the same as Favre, and near Elway, so he holds up pretty well in the top group of QB's over the past 25 years.

    Favre/Elway played in much worse conditions on average outside. Playing outside in AZ is NOT the same as playing outside in den/GB


    Nice try. Warner is the 8th rated QB all time in QB Rating. Even if his stats were outdoors only (as your source shows it), he'd be 25th all time, ahead of the following HOF'ers:

    Jim Kelly
    Roger Staubach
    Sonny Jurgensen
    Len Dawson
    Troy Aikman
    Warren Moon
    Bart Starr
    Dan Fouts
    John Elway
    John Unitas
    Bob Griese
    O give me a break, Romo is 4th all time..so what? We both know the league has increasily become more and more pass friendly

    Atleast seperate using QBR+

    If his QBR was the average amount as the other 5 guys you give over his outdoors numbers and he played an equal amount of games in both conditions, his QBR would be 88.03, making him 13th all time instead of 7th all time. BTW as of today, he's #2 all time for retired QB's behind only Steve Young.[/QUOTE]


    Again, use QBR+...




    All this effort to move him from #8 to #11 or #13... hahha. Warner is still high up in the HOF conversation. Unlike guys like Fouts, Moon, Dawson, Jurgensen, and Kelly he actually won a SB ring.
    I am 99% sure Dawson won a ring. If it wasn't for Kellys kicker he'd also have a ring.






    Accomplishment wise it's very hard to keep Russell out of the top 5. But in that thread you argued he was the GOAT, that's not the same thing as here, do try and keep the comparisons straight.
    So saying he's top 3-5 is OK, but me saying hes goat is outlandish?

    Simmons like I said has him ranked 2nd only to MJ, yet...People think he's full of knowledge..




    As a player to play today? No Graham would never cut it, and Russell would be a D only back-up at best. My lists for QB's also include the split list - broken at 1970 (merger), and of course Graham isn't there. As you know in the NBA my split comes at or near 1976.
    Havn't you said Russell would possibly be a DPOY type of player in todays game with basically 0 offense? Either way, If a player in DPOY calliber (or anywhere that close)..He'd be starting..


    I'm not putting a lot of time into this. AV for my list of WR/TE/RB (more comprehensive then yours) shows a decided uptick when Warner played with them compared to other QB's - including Bulger who is no slouch holding the #26 QBR all time slot down. While one or two of the AV numbers might need to be fixed, they are not all wrong. Far from it.
    I usually like your posts but you are letting me down...

    Who cares if bulger is 26th? He had a good 3 yr stretch..

    He has a career QB Rating+ of 104, Where does THAT rank all time?

    Fact is..

    David Garrard is 23rd on the all time left..So good for Bulger being 26th.

    Other noteables..

    * Pennington 12th all time
    * Culpepper 14th all time
    * Flacco 19th all time
    Last edited by Bos_Sports4Life; 11-21-2012 at 05:51 PM.

  12. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    Favre/Elway played in much worse conditions on average outside. Playing outside in AZ is NOT the same as playing outside in den/GB
    According to your stats it is. According to common sense better downrate Marino, Young, Montana, Fouts, Brees, P Manning, and a lot of others.

    O give me a break, Romo is 4th all time..so what? We both know the league has increasily become more and more pass friendly
    Romo's career isn't done, he could drop a lot.

    Atleast seperate using QBR+
    You mean Rate+? You couldn't mean ESPN's new "QBR" which is inferior to the existing QB Rating.

    Again, use QBR+...
    Again - no.

    I am 99% sure Dawson won a ring. If it wasn't for Kellys kicker he'd also have a ring.
    Yeah, that's true SB 4 I think, beat Minny. I liked that team - Otis Taylor...

    So saying he's top 3-5 is OK, but me saying hes goat is outlandish?
    Ever rate women on a scale of 1 to 10? A 10 is far scarcer then a 9 or an 8. Yes GOAT has and entirely different and higher set of hoops to jump.

    Simmons like I said has him ranked 2nd only to MJ, yet...People think he's full of knowledge..
    Two of my friends call me Simmons all the time, knowing how much I hate it. He's a notorious over rater of Celtic players. Look at his top 50 list sometime, at least 3 ridiculous ratings of Celtic players - including Russell who has no business at #2.

    Havn't you said Russell would possibly be a DPOY type of player in todays game with basically 0 offense? Either way, If a player in DPOY calliber (or anywhere that close)..He'd be starting..
    I doubt it. I've called him an 7.5/11.5/2.5 player per 36 minutes - or thereabouts. Maybe you were thinking of what you said. The 2007-2008 KG would eat him alive for instance.

    Who cares if bulger is 26th? He had a good 3 yr stretch..
    You're the one hung up on how crappy the QB's the came after Warner were - and it's simply not true.

    He has a career QB Rating+ of 104, Where does THAT rank all time?
    But in the years following Warner he was:

    134 (in 7 games)
    101
    117
    117
    116

    Bulgers first 5 years after Warner is about a 115 or 114 - which is the time frame we could care about. Kelly is a career 111. So much for Bulger being a poor QB.

    He fell of the cliff after that - which doesn't occupy us here, now does it?

    David Garrard is 23rd on the all time left..So good for Bulger being 26th.
    Nice attempt to cherry pick. Bulgers years after Warner count, not what he did during the final 3 regrettable years of his career.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-21-2012 at 09:30 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  13. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    According to your stats it is. According to common sense better downrate Marino, Young, Montana, Fouts, Brees, P Manning, and a lot of others.
    Yes, Imo you have to do the following

    * Look at splits
    * Take into consideration how many bad weathered qb's a guy was forced to play in and adjust. Domes are known to pad stats..Needs to be taken into consideration



    Romo's career isn't done, he could drop a lot.
    Penningtons career is over, and as for romo? He may decline some but the league is so passer friendly he'll continue to rack up enough numbers so his QBR won't drop much.


    You mean Rate+? You couldn't mean ESPN's new "QBR" which is inferior to the existing QB Rating.
    Yes, Something era adjusted since you are comparing a guythat just retired to qb's decades prior..






    Ever rate women on a scale of 1 to 10? A 10 is far scarcer then a 9 or an 8. Yes GOAT has and entirely different and higher set of hoops to jump.
    IMO the fact he has 5 League MVP's, 11 titles in 12 healthy yrs (including winning his last 2 college titles) deff without a doubt puts him in the conversation.

    Basketball is a team game..Is it not? Who's to say his leadership wasn't vital in those close games?

    I wasn't a great athlete but I played HS Basketball and there are players who make you want to run through a brick building and than theres players who make you not care as much...Russell? Hes the guy who would make his team claw/scratch for that extra inch..It's a VERY underrated quality imo..

    * Leadership abilities (Name me someone with BETTER leadership than him?)

    * Name a player that was more OBSESSED with winning than Russell?

    * 100% did not care about stats...Same can't be said for several other guys.


    IMO these types of things are IMPOSSIBLE to measure.

    You say the lack of offensive game sets russell apart however I have heard you say you would trust Russell in a big game over Wilt..Yet, Wilt has the much better #'s...So you yourself don't always go with numbers/raw Abilities.







    Two of my friends call me Simmons all the time, knowing how much I hate it. He's a notorious over rater of Celtic players. Look at his top 50 list sometime, at least 3 ridiculous ratings of Celtic players - including Russell who has no business at #2.
    Overall


    '55- Won NCAA Title
    '56- Won NCAA Title

    * Won 55 straigh in college and took home MVP of the final 4 honors)

    '57- Won NBA Title (Finnished 7th in MVP, Would have been higher if not for olympics)
    '58- Led his team to the Finals and was hurt when the series was tied up, Celtics lose. (Won MVP)
    '59- Won NBA TItle (2nd in MVP)
    '60- Won NBA Title (2nd in MVP)
    '61- Won NBA Title (Won MVP)
    '62- Won NBA Title (Won MVP)
    '63- Won NBA Title (Won MVP)
    '64- Won NBA Title (3rd in MVP)
    '65- Won NBA Title (1st in MVP)
    '66- Won NBA TItle (4th in MVP)
    '67- Made Finals/Lost (3rd in MVP)
    '68- Won NBA Title
    '69- Won NBA Title (4th in MVP)


    * So not counting his 2nd yr where he left due to injury..He racked up 11 Titles in a 12 yr stretch (91.6% Title rate)

    * He won MVP 5 times in 13 yrs (38%) and won a final 4 MVP in college

    * He finnished top 3 in MVP 9 times in his 13 yr career (69%)



    I have ALSO looked up quotes and have seen a few from opposing players (Even some directly after games)


    “That’s quite a twist, isn’t it, having a defensive player mean the difference?” said Kundla. “We don’t fear the Celtics without Bill Russell. Take him out and we can beat them … He’s the guy who whipped us psychologically. Russell has our club worrying every second. Every one of the five men is thinking Russell is covering him on every play. He blocks a shot, and before you know it, Boston is getting a basket, and a play by Russell has done it.”

    “If we played Boston four on four, without Russell, we probably would have won every series. The guy killed us. He's the one who prevented us from acheiving true greatness.”
    --L.A. Lakers forward "Hot Rod" Hundley


    "I don't want to rap Wilt because I believe only Russell was better, and i really respect what Wilt did. But I have to say he wouldn't adjust to you, You had to adjust to him"- Jerry West

    There many more quotes I have seen simmilar to these 2..Point is wilts own teammate thought Russell was better despite stats, opposing coach said Russell beat them down mentally, and another player saying Russel was by far the biggest key..

    Basically he dominated by winning a combination of Accolades AND titles while several articles of former players/coaches saying he was the key. Yet...your opinion means more than all of that?



    I doubt it. I've called him an 7.5/11.5/2.5 player per 36 minutes - or thereabouts. Maybe you were thinking of what you said. The 2007-2008 KG would eat him alive for instance.

    And Tebow would eat Baugh alive, Yet...Baugh is in your top 10, correct?



    You're the one hung up on how crappy the QB's the came after Warner were - and it's simply not true.[/QUOTE]

    Or MAYBE Bulger was a produvt of who he played with?

    Bulger

    '03- Holt/Bruce combine for 2,677 yrds
    '04- Holt/Bruce combine for 2,664 yrds
    '05- Holt/Bruce Combine for 1856 yrds in only 25 games
    '06- Bruce/Holt combine for 2,286 yrds
    '07- Holt for 1189 yrds while Bruce regresses and has 733 yrds
    '08- Bruce is now gone and Holt begins declining and '09 is his final season..


    '06, the yr b4 bruce takes a nosedive which happens to be bulgers final season worth mentioning.

    Holt/Bruce/Jackson/Dome made an average QB into a multi-time probowler just like that duo made Warner from a good QB into a HOF QB..


    Bulgers first 5 years after Warner is about a 115 or 114 - which is the time frame we could care about. Kelly is a career 111. So much for Bulger being a poor QB.
    if you surrounded cassell with the '07-'12 Pats offense Cassell eould likely have a career rate+ of 110 or so, Would that make him hof calliber? heck no

    Nice attempt to cherry pick. Bulgers years after Warner count, not what he did during the final 3 regrettable years of his career.
    Regrettable since he didnt have his elite weapons anymore..
    Last edited by Bos_Sports4Life; 11-22-2012 at 12:35 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Hahhahahahhaaa

    OK. We'll see hot shot.
    Brady had a bad game with 4 picks last year, everyone is entitled to one. What I'm not getting is that this guy can be average/below average for 8 games and be the second coming of Unitas, I understand he is talented but his stats are not amazing like everyone thinks. And griffin was better in college, and he's been better so far, and I fully expect him to be better in the future. Luck can get better, but you're acting like RGIII won't. Sanchize is talented too, it takes more than that to be great
    Proud to be PSD's Danny Woodhead

  15. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bos_Sports4Life View Post
    IMO the fact he has 5 League MVP's, 11 titles in 12 healthy yrs (including winning his last 2 college titles) deff without a doubt puts him in the conversation.
    In a league that had 7 or 8 other teams during the solid majority of his career, and the first 3 years in the land of the little people. He must be down rated for that. Also had the best Coach/GM and best team. No way he can be the GOAT against such obviously inferior competition, in such a small league with so many advantages.

    Basketball is a team game..Is it not? Who's to say his leadership wasn't vital in those close games?
    Who is to say it was? I saw much more of him then you did, and he didn't impress me as the GOAT. I heard everybody saying he was in Boston, but, they offered only the same sort of "proof" you do.

    I wasn't a great athlete but I played HS Basketball and there are players who make you want to run through a brick building and than theres players who make you not care as much...Russell? Hes the guy who would make his team claw/scratch for that extra inch..It's a VERY underrated quality imo..
    I agree, but I feel it was Red's system/ideals/coaching/teammates that helped bring that out in him.

    * Leadership abilities (Name me someone with BETTER leadership than him?)
    Easily done, but this is a thread about Tom Brady stretched to Kurt Warner. Sorry, no more.

    You say the lack of offensive game sets russell apart however I have heard you say you would trust Russell in a big game over Wilt..Yet, Wilt has the much better #'s...So you yourself don't always go with numbers/raw Abilities.
    Wilt was a knucklehead too much of the time. I'd trust Hakeem, Kareem, Malone, Shaq, Robinson, KG, Duncan, McHale, and others over Russell.

    Or MAYBE Bulger was a product of who he played with?
    Prove it.

    Bulger

    '03- Holt/Bruce combine for 2,677 yrds
    '04- Holt/Bruce combine for 2,664 yrds
    '05- Holt/Bruce Combine for 1856 yrds in only 25 games
    '06- Bruce/Holt combine for 2,286 yrds
    '07- Holt for 1189 yrds while Bruce regresses and has 733 yrds
    '08- Bruce is now gone and Holt begins declining and '09 is his final season..

    '06, the yr b4 bruce takes a nosedive which happens to be bulgers final season worth mentioning.

    Holt/Bruce/Jackson/Dome made an average QB into a multi-time probowler just like that duo made Warner from a good QB into a HOF QB..
    Not even close to proof my good man.

    if you surrounded cassell with the '07-'12 Pats offense Cassell eould likely have a career rate+ of 110 or so, Would that make him hof calliber? heck no

    Regrettable since he didnt have his elite weapons anymore..
    Teams have figured out what routes he can throw, what pressure he doesn't like, and more. You can't prove your claim on Cassell because he didn't stay.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-22-2012 at 07:21 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

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