While he may not get hit as much as the old timers, the guys hitting them are much bigger and faster. So one hit could be all it takes.As I said, QBs are getting hit less now because of the rules changes (well I think they are, maybe they aren't though) and a contributing factor into the QBs career length is going to be the number of hits he takes over the years. You take less hits over the years, you would assume that the length of your career would be longer. Fair assumption right?
While per game Brady is hit less then a guy like Unitas, the old timers played 10, 12, 14 game seasons, with less playoff games. What about your basic 19 game SB year vs your basic 16 game season of a few decades back? And 11 games another 15 years before that?
QB's that started to play after 1980 have better longevity then before, but, it's hardly a smooth ride to 40 for the vast majority. More like a bumpy ride to 36 or 37.I think the only way to get an accurate picture of how long QBs will play in today's environment would be to look at the QBs that have played in this era and retired. Problem is, there's not much in that regard.
You mean the past? Well, it's what we have to go on. Injuries and physical and yes mental decline start to pile up. A 30 year old can navigate a very complex traffic intersection much better then an average 40 year old - I read it someplace. It's an apt comparison because of the need to do it quickly and the estimation of movement of multiple things in multiple dimensions.Basically, I just don't think you can accurately project based on the current league environment. QB play has changed and with the rule changes, it theoretically should lengthen the QB's career (unless you're Michael Vick or a QB of that ilk)
If Brady gets to 42 playing like the last 2 years each and every year I'll be thrilled. I also know the chances of even 2/3 of that is poor.