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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    You could be right about this. He hasn't been the same since his knee injury, although setting the bar at 2007 is too much to expect regardless of whether he got injured or not. And 2010-present has been better than what he was pre-2007 numbers wise.
    I wasn't thinking of 2007, that's not sustainable. But his 2010-2011 numbers are also based on killer recs and tight rules on the secondary. His pre 2007 seasons were with distinctly lesser recs, and much tougher secondary play.

    As I said, QBs are getting hit less now because of the rules changes (well I think they are, maybe they aren't though) and a contributing factor into the QBs career length is going to be the number of hits he takes over the years. You take less hits over the years, you would assume that the length of your career would be longer. Fair assumption right?
    While he may not get hit as much as the old timers, the guys hitting them are much bigger and faster. So one hit could be all it takes.

    While per game Brady is hit less then a guy like Unitas, the old timers played 10, 12, 14 game seasons, with less playoff games. What about your basic 19 game SB year vs your basic 16 game season of a few decades back? And 11 games another 15 years before that?

    I think the only way to get an accurate picture of how long QBs will play in today's environment would be to look at the QBs that have played in this era and retired. Problem is, there's not much in that regard.
    QB's that started to play after 1980 have better longevity then before, but, it's hardly a smooth ride to 40 for the vast majority. More like a bumpy ride to 36 or 37.

    Basically, I just don't think you can accurately project based on the current league environment. QB play has changed and with the rule changes, it theoretically should lengthen the QB's career (unless you're Michael Vick or a QB of that ilk)
    You mean the past? Well, it's what we have to go on. Injuries and physical and yes mental decline start to pile up. A 30 year old can navigate a very complex traffic intersection much better then an average 40 year old - I read it someplace. It's an apt comparison because of the need to do it quickly and the estimation of movement of multiple things in multiple dimensions.

    If Brady gets to 42 playing like the last 2 years each and every year I'll be thrilled. I also know the chances of even 2/3 of that is poor.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-10-2012 at 09:36 AM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  2. #32
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    I think Brady will play top for two more years, 3 good years and then at 40 drop off sharper.
    But you do revise a good point with him being more susceptible to injuries and that might be the reason we have a QB change when he is in his late 30's (38-39).

    I do agree that luck looks and plays like the real deal and he could give you at least 10-12 years of top QB play.

    But can we wait and see what he does in his second year? Cam newton was lighting the league up last year...and now...well right exactly.

    PSD's Aaron Dropson.
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  3. #33
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    Personally, I wouldn't trade Brady even if it did make sense to do so. In many ways he is the Patriots and he as much as anyone personifies the incredible run they have been on since 2001. When he goes so does that era. I'd be willing to hold on to the magic of this dynasty for an extra couple of years even if it did mean mortgaging the future a little bit. I simply don't want it to end until it has to.

  4. #34
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    ^ I see what you mean BUT at the end of the day the NFL is a business. Business people are results oriented not emotionally driven.

    PSD's Aaron Dropson.
    Honorary packers fan

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal96 View Post
    Andrew Luck is the most valuable player in NFL from a GM ownership perspective. He is in the first year of a four-year rookie contract and is widely considered to be the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning. More importantly, he has exceeded expectations and has led a crappy team to a 6-3 record.

    There is zero chance that the Colts would take Brady for Luck. I don't even think they would do it if the Patriots offered Brady, Gronk, Chandler Jones and a couple first round draft picks. Brady is elite right now while Luck isn't. But Luck is ascending and will very likely be a franchise QB for the next 12 plus years. Brady has maybe 3 (?) good years left in him.

    If you are a Colts GM, how do you give up a player who could very well be the best player in the NFL over the next decade plus?
    Lolwut?

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    At most 1.5 years? Seems pretty pessimistic. I know why you're assuming 1.5 years- because QBs over time tend to decline at that age. Here's the problem with that assumption- we aren't in the 80s or 90s anymore. QBs are no longer taking the # of hits they used to and are well protected for the most part. In fact, mostly it's become illegal to hit a QB. So that alone, should lengthen the average peak of a QBs career.

    We saw it with Favre a couple years ago in Minnesota. He had an excellent season at like age 40+ and that guy was never as good as Brady has been. Normally, I would agree that you look at past trends to see when a player will decline but what happens when those past trends are outdated because of rule changes that theoretically extend the life of that position? I think thats exactly whats happened.
    I tend to agree. Brady is one of the most motivated players in the league. He has said before that he want to play the game as long as possible. Even if he isn't at the peak of his career at worst he is still a top 10 QB.

    I could certainly see a return to the balanced offensive and defensive scheme that made us great in the early 2000's. Brady win's games for the Patriots by not turning the ball over, even if his production slacks he still will be an effective QB.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by BSF101 View Post
    It looks like most of you would trade for him. But lets just say the trade happens, and Luck turns out to be a bust next year and Brady goes on to win 2-3 more SB's with the Colts? I would be F'N piss.
    Even brady couldn't win a SB with the currents colts team, come on man!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Quote Originally Posted by Cole.World.9.27 View Post
    Brady is not a difference-maker or a playmaker. He's a product of the system who happens to play the QB position.

  8. #38
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    Of course you do the trade. Luck's value long-term exceeds Brady's in the next few years, and it isn't even close. The only reason to not do it if is if the Pats brass loves Ryan Mallet, but I don't think that is the case right now.
    Patriots Forum Hall of Fame Class of 2011


  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by lolollort View Post
    I think Brady will play top for two more years, 3 good years and then at 40 drop off sharper.
    But you do revise a good point with him being more susceptible to injuries and that might be the reason we have a QB change when he is in his late 30's (38-39).

    I do agree that luck looks and plays like the real deal and he could give you at least 10-12 years of top QB play.

    But can we wait and see what he does in his second year? Cam newton was lighting the league up last year...and now...well right exactly.
    Cam Newton can't touch Luck in so many factors of being a QB it's ridiculous.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valleyfella View Post
    Personally, I wouldn't trade Brady even if it did make sense to do so. In many ways he is the Patriots and he as much as anyone personifies the incredible run they have been on since 2001. When he goes so does that era. I'd be willing to hold on to the magic of this dynasty for an extra couple of years even if it did mean mortgaging the future a little bit. I simply don't want it to end until it has to.
    49'ers dealt Montana.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patriot Pride View Post
    I tend to agree. Brady is one of the most motivated players in the league. He has said before that he want to play the game as long as possible. Even if he isn't at the peak of his career at worst he is still a top 10 QB.

    I could certainly see a return to the balanced offensive and defensive scheme that made us great in the early 2000's. Brady win's games for the Patriots by not turning the ball over, even if his production slacks he still will be an effective QB.
    Brady has won the the #1 parking spot once since 2007, before that he won it almost every year. He's married to a women that makes more then he does. He has children and political aspirations....


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by BSF101 View Post
    It looks like most of you would trade for him. But lets just say the trade happens, and Luck turns out to be a bust next year and Brady goes on to win 2-3 more SB's with the Colts? I would be F'N piss.
    Laughable scenario.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    49'ers dealt Montana.
    I know. And he never looked right out of a 49ers uniform.

    I agree that football is a business and it's the nature of the beast that players get traded, even icons. I'm sentimental enough not to want to see it happen with Brady. I've loved this era of Pats football and, perhaps unrealistically, am okay with extending it a bit even if it might not be in the long term interests of the team. Within reason, of course.

  14. #44
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    Would it be a good trade for us, yes! Do the Colts even consider that, NO! Fact of the matter is they let future HOF Peyton Manning go to bring this guy in. They could have easily got pretty much anything they wanted for that pick, but were so high on him they chose him over Manning knowing how much heat they were gonna catch from the Indy fan base. They would have still been a SB contender had they kept Manning, and could have loaded up by trading that pick and they chose Luck! Besides, trading Brady might lead to a curse worse than the one of the Bambino! Not to mention Kraft got a couple plots right next to his at the cemetery for Tom and Bill!
    Last edited by Fla.SticKy; 11-11-2012 at 09:08 AM.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by BSF101 View Post
    Its really hard knowing who's being serious and who's being sarcastic.
    lol, I was being serious. I love what Brady has done in his career, and his story to superstardom is pretty remarkable. But Brady is also 36 and has shown signs of slowing down (he has no ability to throw the deep ball already). Luck has so much potential it's not even funny. I'd do it all day, every day.

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