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  1. #1
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    Would you trade Tom Brady for Andrew Luck

    If the Pats got Andrew Luck, a first round drift pick and compensation like cash for Brady would you still trade for him? This is hard for me to answer I like Brady but he's not getting any younger. But I would have to say no I believe he and Belichick can win 2-3 more SB's. Your thoughts and I don't want to hear how stupid this thread is I'm just asking.
    20+ years from now I and others will look back @WMXXX and say remember when Brock Beat The Undertaker? More people will remember his only loss more than those 21 Straight wins.

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    It made sense for what Indy did. But, the Pats are a SB contending team from now till as long as TB12 keeps up his level of play...probably till he's about 40...so to lose at least 3 solid years of SB contention wouldn't be worth it AT this time. Luck is good but so was Cam newton until coaches did film work on them. I still think luck will be a top 10 QB but, it's not worth giving up a SB window.

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    Hellllllllllllllll NO!

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    Quote Originally Posted by BostonSports96 View Post


    Hellllllllllllllll NO!
    I agree I wouldn't do it either. Question was asked on TV today, that's why I asked.
    20+ years from now I and others will look back @WMXXX and say remember when Brock Beat The Undertaker? More people will remember his only loss more than those 21 Straight wins.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lolollort View Post
    It made sense for what Indy did. But, the Pats are a SB contending team from now till as long as TB12 keeps up his level of play...probably till he's about 40...so to lose at least 3 solid years of SB contention wouldn't be worth it AT this time. Luck is good but so was Cam newton until coaches did film work on them. I still think luck will be a top 10 QB but, it's not worth giving up a SB window.
    Anyone that thinks Brady is as good today as when he's 40 is taking a full dose load of laughing gas.

    Brady has at most 1.5 years at the level he is at. Do the trade all day, every day.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Anyone that thinks Brady is as good today as when he's 40 is taking a full dose load of laughing gas.

    Brady has at most 1.5 years at the level he is at. Do the trade all day, every day.
    Heck, i'd even throw in our upcoming draft at them (1st-4th i believe)

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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Anyone that thinks Brady is as good today as when he's 40 is taking a full dose load of laughing gas.

    Brady has at most 1.5 years at the level he is at. Do the trade all day, every day.
    At most 1.5 years? Seems pretty pessimistic. I know why you're assuming 1.5 years- because QBs over time tend to decline at that age. Here's the problem with that assumption- we aren't in the 80s or 90s anymore. QBs are no longer taking the # of hits they used to and are well protected for the most part. In fact, mostly it's become illegal to hit a QB. So that alone, should lengthen the average peak of a QBs career.

    We saw it with Favre a couple years ago in Minnesota. He had an excellent season at like age 40+ and that guy was never as good as Brady has been. Normally, I would agree that you look at past trends to see when a player will decline but what happens when those past trends are outdated because of rule changes that theoretically extend the life of that position? I think thats exactly whats happened.
    Patriots Forum HOF Class of 2011

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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    At most 1.5 years? Seems pretty pessimistic. I know why you're assuming 1.5 years- because QBs over time tend to decline at that age. Here's the problem with that assumption- we aren't in the 80s or 90s anymore. QBs are no longer taking the # of hits they used to and are well protected for the most part. In fact, mostly it's become illegal to hit a QB. So that alone, should lengthen the average peak of a QBs career.

    We saw it with Favre a couple years ago in Minnesota. He had an excellent season at like age 40+ and that guy was never as good as Brady has been. Normally, I would agree that you look at past trends to see when a player will decline but what happens when those past trends are outdated because of rule changes that theoretically extend the life of that position? I think thats exactly whats happened.
    Brady is not the same since his knee problems. He's more prone to injuries because of it. Hell he could be done without even being hit.

    Go ahead and take all the HOF QB's that made it to at least age 38 and compare age 36+ to ages 34-35. Not very good at all. Not in games played or performance.

    The most likely shape I see is '12 & '13 top notch and '14, '15, '16 - two years good, but clearly declined from his peak, and an injury plagued season mixed in, followed by retirement.

    Favre is a complete outlier. I've take the top 20 QB's by HOF and QBR and you have about 1/4 that got into their late 30's/early 40's and NONE of them was a metronome for great seasons by that players standards compared to the age 34-36 bracket.

    EDIT ADD:

    Favre by his standards:

    elite seasons age 32-35
    meh seasons age 36-37
    great seasons age 38 + 40
    OK season: age 39
    Horrid season: age 41

    Elway is probably the other great old QB. age 33-38 very good, then retired at age 39

    Montana: good age 34, 37, 38; Injured DNP age 35 and 36 (21 passes thrown age 36)

    It thins out after that.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-09-2012 at 10:30 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Brady is not the same since his knee problems. He's more prone to injuries because of it. Hell he could be done without even being hit.
    You could be right about this. He hasn't been the same since his knee injury, although setting the bar at 2007 is too much to expect regardless of whether he got injured or not. And 2010-present has been better than what he was pre-2007 numbers wise.

    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Go ahead and take all the HOF QB's that made it to at least age 38 and compare age 36+ to ages 34-35. Not very good at all. Not in games played or performance.

    The most likely shape I see is '12 & '13 top notch and '14, '15, '16 - two years good, but clearly declined from his peak, and an injury plagued season mixed in, followed by retirement.

    Favre is a complete outlier. I've take the top 20 QB's by HOF and QBR and you have about 1/4 that got into their late 30's/early 40's and NONE of them was a metronome for great seasons by that players standards compared to the age 34-36 bracket.

    EDIT ADD:

    Favre by his standards:

    elite seasons age 32-35
    meh seasons age 36-37
    great seasons age 38 + 40
    OK season: age 39
    Horrid season: age 41

    Elway is probably the other great old QB. age 33-38 very good, then retired at age 39

    Montana: good age 34, 37, 38; Injured DNP age 35 and 36 (21 passes thrown age 36)

    It thins out after that.
    You seem to have completely missed my point. I never doubted that your analysis was correct, I'm saying that you have to consider the way the game has changed. I'm all for evaluating based on trends but what happens when there's a significant SHIFT in the game? I've seen you reference the fact that its a passing league numerous times so I know you're aware of that. And with that in mind, is it really fair to evaluate based on trends in a different league environment? As I said, QBs are getting hit less now because of the rules changes (well I think they are, maybe they aren't though) and a contributing factor into the QBs career length is going to be the number of hits he takes over the years. You take less hits over the years, you would assume that the length of your career would be longer. Fair assumption right?

    I think the only way to get an accurate picture of how long QBs will play in today's environment would be to look at the QBs that have played in this era and retired. Problem is, there's not much in that regard.

    Then you have the fact that the QB position has become much more cerebral over the last 10 years or so. You can overcome declining arm strength by continuing to read and understand defenses at a high level (look at Peyton this year, his arm strength has clearly declined but his stats are among some of the best in his career).

    Or here's another way to look at it- it's almost like we're in the steroid era for QBs. And in the steroid era, it seemed like you had players performing better at older ages then they should've. Now I don't know if that was actually true but it certainly seemed that way with some of the older athletes performing as well as they did. And in that same sense, because of the QBs being protected more, I would imagine you'll see the average length of a QB's career increase.

    Basically, I just don't think you can accurately project based on the current league environment. QB play has changed and with the rule changes, it theoretically should lengthen the QB's career (unless you're Michael Vick or a QB of that ilk)
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    Quote Originally Posted by PatsSoxKnicks View Post
    At most 1.5 years? Seems pretty pessimistic. I know why you're assuming 1.5 years- because QBs over time tend to decline at that age. Here's the problem with that assumption- we aren't in the 80s or 90s anymore. QBs are no longer taking the # of hits they used to and are well protected for the most part. In fact, mostly it's become illegal to hit a QB. So that alone, should lengthen the average peak of a QBs career.

    We saw it with Favre a couple years ago in Minnesota. He had an excellent season at like age 40+ and that guy was never as good as Brady has been. Normally, I would agree that you look at past trends to see when a player will decline but what happens when those past trends are outdated because of rule changes that theoretically extend the life of that position? I think thats exactly whats happened.
    I tend to agree. Brady is one of the most motivated players in the league. He has said before that he want to play the game as long as possible. Even if he isn't at the peak of his career at worst he is still a top 10 QB.

    I could certainly see a return to the balanced offensive and defensive scheme that made us great in the early 2000's. Brady win's games for the Patriots by not turning the ball over, even if his production slacks he still will be an effective QB.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patriot Pride View Post
    I tend to agree. Brady is one of the most motivated players in the league. He has said before that he want to play the game as long as possible. Even if he isn't at the peak of his career at worst he is still a top 10 QB.

    I could certainly see a return to the balanced offensive and defensive scheme that made us great in the early 2000's. Brady win's games for the Patriots by not turning the ball over, even if his production slacks he still will be an effective QB.
    Brady has won the the #1 parking spot once since 2007, before that he won it almost every year. He's married to a women that makes more then he does. He has children and political aspirations....


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by bagwell368 View Post
    Anyone that thinks Brady is as good today as when he's 40 is taking a full dose load of laughing gas.

    Brady has at most 1.5 years at the level he is at. Do the trade all day, every day.
    He is obviously going to regress but he will play as a top 10QB till he is at least 40.

    Right now Brady is Elite and can get us a SB win or two before he is done. With luck we aren't going to have an instant SB team.
    In 4-5 years yes, luck will be better, maybe 3. But that is 3 years of SB contention we are almost sure of w/Brady

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    Quote Originally Posted by lolollort View Post
    He is obviously going to regress but he will play as a top 10QB till he is at least 40.
    Based on the the history of QB's in the NFL this statement is utterly unsupportable with facts.

    Right now Brady is Elite and can get us a SB win or two before he is done. With luck we aren't going to have an instant SB team.
    In 4-5 years yes, luck will be better, maybe 3. But that is 3 years of SB contention we are almost sure of w/Brady
    This is all wishful thinking dude.
    Last edited by bagwell368; 11-09-2012 at 10:30 PM.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  14. #14
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    Yes. Luck is the real deal.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Haha View Post
    What I feel right now is like the satisfaction you feel when a highly judgmental, moralistic televangelist gets caught screwing a male hooker.
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    Quote Originally Posted by hugepatsfan View Post
    Yes. Luck is the real deal.
    Maybe in the next 5 years.
    20+ years from now I and others will look back @WMXXX and say remember when Brock Beat The Undertaker? More people will remember his only loss more than those 21 Straight wins.

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