Thoughts on FG%, shot selection, and why ET and the 2011-12 Sixers were inefficient

[Illa215]

Bholly, this is a beautiful post.

I applaud you for bringing actual facts into an argument on here. This was seriously awesome.

[warfelg]

At the start of the shot clock?...with everyone else playing off of him and getting out of his way?...against smaller guards? I don't think so. I do think he looks a half step slower at the start of this season as compared to last one. I don't know if it's injury or conditioning or both. But that's not the only reason for his poor production. He's not a true point, and I should almost never see him curling around a screen or playing the two man game. He is a 1 on 1 creator. That's his only real strength in the half court offense. He needs time on the shot clock and a clear path to make it work. The rest of the time, he needs to learn how to shoot the corner 3, or we have a real problem.

ps...trying to score in Tyson Chandler's grille or take it to the cup on the slow break when there is plenty of people traffic are things he does need to learn not to do. But if he doesn't shoot it then, when? He'd average 3 shot attempts per game with 2 of them being jumpers the way this offense is run, if he didn't force the issue once in a while.

I can tell you (I'm not 100% sure) but that ankle injury from the preseason has still got to be bugging him. I've had surgeries to both my ankles for torn ligaments thanks the spraining both ankles too many times.

Until that is properly healed he will always look a half step slower. What happens is your stride gets out of synch because you start pressing harder with your healthy ankle and have a lopsided stride. In the end it causes more harm than good.

To be honest I haven't seen him have a taped or braced ankle, and until that is 100% healthy it should be. It won't make him 100% himself but it helps eliminate the bit you take off to avoid re-injury. Actually the lack of bracing and taping in the NBA as a whole concerns me.

[wannabGM]

On one play ET looked like he saw an opportunity in a matchup and posted down low even though it didn't seem like the called play. Result was a double team. He kicked it out to Wright for an open catch and shoot 3 pointer. Swish. On both ends of the play, Wright and ET were in their natural roles. Harmony.

Why for at least one significant stretch of his career I haven't seen ET in the post at least at a minimum 2 times per game on average I cannot give a good reason. It seems like he has a great shot of either getting to the line or getting the ball to an open teammate if he can't get the bucket.

Instead of seeing this type of play, I more often have to watch Evan hand it off to someone in the high post, then run a huge circle around several screens just to come back to the high post to have it handed back off to him. Instead of wasting the energy, the Sixers might as well just offer to work with 18 seconds on the shot clock instead. Why, Doug? That's Jrue's game. Not ET, Wright, Nyoung, etc. Why does Evan have to run that same play with consistently poorer results? He isn't Jrue. This has been going on for more than a season now. The coach needs to be called out.

[steagles]

one thing i'd like to bring up with ET is offensive rebounding. we know that he has a tendency to get into offensive funks, and to just plant himself in the weakside short corner, so here's what i'm thinking:

he is really good at reading the ball off the rim and with the combination of his poor shooting rep, and a lot of teams (specifically boston, chicago, and miami) running tom thibodeau's weak-side zone defense, he should be able to really crash the boards from the offside when one of the other players takes a jumpshot.

all of this also applies to dorell wright (well, except for the part about the poor shooting rep).

the upside to doing this would be to A) keep turner aggressive in the offense, even when he doesn't have the ball in his hands, B) get the team extra possessions, which could really help them when their shot goes cold, and C) get turner the ball, in the lane, where he can draw fouls, get to the line, and put points on the board.

now, there is a downside here, which is that it could hurt the sixers' transition defense. if turner is crashing the boards on missed shots, that's one fewer player that you have rotating back when the opponents get out on the break, so that could leave you a bit vulnerable (especially if turner crashes the boards on a missed corner 3).

if you look at a list of guards/wings who have been active offensive rebounders, you see names like dwayne wade, russell westbrook, lebron james, tony allen, and kyle lowry.

and if you look at some of the stats for the selected players, you'll notice that in 11 of these 18 seasons, the selected players attempted 4+ FTs per 36 minutes. and you'll also notice that in 14 of these 18 seasons, the selected players shot less than 33% from beyond the arc.

so, despite turner being a 60% 3P shooter this season, that really seems to me like it's the sweetspot for what turner should be doing offensively.

[wannabGM]

Steagles, interesting idea. I dunno if he has the athletecism for the O boards....but it is an interesting thought.

A couple facts I posted in another thread more relevant to this one....

1) The Sixers as a team ranked dead last in the NBA during the 2011-12 season in free throw attempts.
2) In 2011-12 season, the Sixers number of FTA's per game of 18.15 is the 2nd lowest in the history of the NBA for a winning team, and 1 of 3 teams in NBA history to have a winning season with 20 or less attempts per game.
3) Spencer Hawes was 2nd in the NBA among centers in assists/game to only Boris Diaw (if you can call him a true center) despite only playing a shade under 25 minutes per game. Holy high post, Batman.

[bholly]

FWIW ET's totally flipped the script so far this season. He's still obviously shooting way too many long twos, and not shooting threes, but he's also dropping shots far below his usual level at the rim and from close, so his overall shooting percentage is way down. On the other hand, his efficiency (or, at least, his TS%) is actually up because he's getting to the line at a hugely improved rate - FTA/FGA of 0.32, which is an enormous improvement and would put him in the top 10-15 SGs in the league most seasons.
Of course, the same way there's a super small sample size on his in-close shooting (we're talking just 25 shots, so you have to assume it'll revert back to its usual level at some point), 7 games is a super small sample size for free throw rate as well - he's been through similar stretches with these sorts of numbers in the past, then reverted back to his old self, so you have to assume this could be temporary, too.
But here's hoping the new-found free throw proficiency isn't just a hot streak, and the in-close shooting is just a cold-streak. Keeping up this free throw rate while putting up his regular shooting numbers could be a big step for him.

[wannabGM]

ET has been told by his coach...and by the franchise point guard publicly via the media....not to shoot 3's. ET has shown the ability to develop a respectable corner 3. Why the reluctance to have him shoot that shot exists, and why they somehow think it's much better for him to shoot long 2's off screens....when that has never been his game as long as he is alive and it's a recipe for disaster in the NBA for almost any guard....I cannot explain except for with one phrase...

BAD COACHING.

BHolly, to an extent the problems in ET's game has been a microcasm of what Doug has done with the entire offense for much of his time here. The FTA's....the shot selection....it can't be a coincidence.