KC trades OT Brandon Albert to MIA for #54
CLE tardes DE Jabaal Sheard to NE for #59, 2014 4th rounder
1. KC - Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel
Obvious pick at this point.
2. JAX - Oregon DE/OLB Dion Jordan
I don't buy the hype that they want an OT here. Jordan is a perfect fit for their scheme and they already have a LT. I think they just want to lure DET or AZ to move up for Fisher. I don't think either team will feel the need to move up to #2.
3. DET - Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher
DET gets: #3
OAK gets: #5, #65, 2014 3rd rounder
OAK really want a second rounder but I don't think either DET or AZ would give it up to move up for Fisher. This is the best deal I can see them getting. For DET, it guarantees they get the answer for protecting the blindisde of the guy they're about to pay a lot of money.
4. PHI - Utah DT Star Lotulelei
With Fisher off the board, I think they opt for the BPA and take Lotulelei. Whether they play 3-4 or 4-3, PHI needs more disruptive players on the inside. Lotulelei's got the potential to be both a dominant force inside and also that pocket pusher that every great pass rush need. Between Trent Cole, Connor Barwin, Brandon Graham and Vinny Curry they should be able to generate pressure off the edge. Louteleli could team with Fletcher Cox to give them a real presence on the inside too.
5. OAK - Florida DT Sharrif Floyd
(sent from DET to OAK - see pick #3)
There are some reports that OAK doesn't like him, but I think that's a smokescreen. One possibility to watch out for might be that they actually like Sheldon Richardson. I saw one poster suggest that in a previous thread (forget the name, sorry) and it's something I've been thinking about. I'm going to go with my gut and say that;s just over thinking and stick with Floyd to OAK for now. They need inside DL help with Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly both gone.
6. CLE - BYU DE/OLB Ezekial "Ziggy" Ansah
Even though CLE signed Kruger, reports are they don't like Jabaal Sheard in their new 3-4. When the Mallet to CLE rumors were going on earlier, reports had NE talking about getting one of CLE's defensive linemen back. NE showed a lot of interest in Sheard when he was coming out, so if CLE can land Ansah here I think there might be a trade to be made as I have mocked (see player trades at the top). Ziggy Ansah has the prototypical athletic traits you look for in a conversion player. Probably won't be a superstar from day 1, but who are we kidding - CLE isn't winning a SB in the next year or two. They'd probably look to move back and land him later but if you move back it's like to a team trading up for Milliner of Lane Johnson. Johnson gets taken - AZ takes Ansah most likely. Milliner's off the board - TEN probably takes Ansah if he's still on the board. I don't think CLE can move back and land him so they take the "project." CB is so deep that I think they can pass on Milliner who doesn't have huge upside IMO.
7. AZ - Oklahoma OT Lane Johnson
I know reports have them being satisfied with their OT situation but I think that's draft speak. And honestly, there really isn't another player that jumps off the board for them here. It's either make the safe pick and take one of the OGs or take a little bit of a chance and go for the positional value. I think Lane Johnson is a good enough prospect and the OGs in round 2 are solid enough that AZ can go for positional value here.
8. BUF - Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib
Ideally they'd move back and get him but if they think he's the QB for them they won't risk it. And they shouldn't IMO. I'm not huge on Nassib but they reportedly think he's the guy for their offense. If that's how they feel they'll take him here. We'll see if it works out...
9. NYJ - LSU DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo
Whether they traded Revis or not, the Jets desperately needed to improve the pass rush. Moving on without Revis only furthers the importance of doing so. Mingo could be a great fit in Rex's attacking defense. Mingo, Wilkerson and Coples would be a pretty solid trio of young pass rushers to have on a rebuilding team. In a normal year I don't think Mingo would be talked about as a top 10 guy but this is a weak class so this is the best pick the Jets can make.
10. TEN - Alabama CB DeMarcus "Dee" Milliner
For the Titans this is a good value pick at a position of need. They reportedly really like him, even though I personally have doubts about his upside. I don't see him ever being a #1 CB. Just a very good #2. Again, in a weak draft class like this, the value of a player like that gets pushed up. For TEN he fill a need and is definitely one of the top players on any board at this point.
11. SF - Missouri DT Sheldon Richardson
SF gets: #11
SD gets: #31, #34, #128
The Chargers desperately need OL help, but with the 3 OTs gone they can get better value from trading back IMO. They have multiple needs on both sides of the ball. #31 and #34 would put them in position to get an OT like Watson and one of the second tier CBs in the draft. The top pick for them in this scenario would reportedly be D.J. Fluker, a RG or RT only. I think positional value means they'd be better off accepting the trade. For SF, they have plenty of picks to move up for a real stud like Richardson. People always talk about him replacing Smith when they mention this possibility - imagine them playing next to each other for another two years with Aldon Smith coming off the edge. Rich get richer with this move.
12. MIA - Florida State DE Cornellius "Tank" Carradine
MIA will be choosing between two Seminoles here - Carradine and CB Xavier Rhodes. The drop off at CB from Rhodes to the selection in round 2 is much less than it is from Carradine to the DEs that will be still be on the board. Carradine would be a great pass rusher to have opposite Cameron Wake and improve their defense. They rebounded nicely from losing Sean Smith by signing Brent Grimes at CB and they could add a starter opposite him in round 2. And remember that I had them trading #54 for Albert from KC. Carradine, Albert and one of the 2nd round CBs would be a pretty nice haul, plus whatever they get later in the draft.
13. CIN - Texas S Kenny Vaccaro
MIN gets: #13
NYJ gets: #21, #53
For the Jets, they're rebuilding and it makes sense to try to add as many picks as possible. They should be able to get a good player at either OL, CB or TE at #21 so this is a good trade for them. CIN had 3 big needs by most opinions - LB, S, RT. LB, was recently addressed by signing James Harrison. With them also having an extra 2nd rounder (and at the top of the round too - #38 overall) I think they can afford to move up to make sure they fill one of their other two needs with the top player on their board. They are reportedly very high on Vacarro and they have enough picks to make this happen. There are a number of guys that should be on the board at #38 that could fill the RT slot and they'd still have #84 to go BPA and take advantage of this deep draft class. Vaccaro instantly upgrades the S spot for them next to the solid Reggie Nelson.
14. MIN - West Virginia WR Tavon Austin
MIN gets: #14
CAR gets: #23, #83, #102
CAR is looking at either taking Xavier Rhodes or trading back here. Tavon Wilson is a possibility for them, but I don't think he compliments Steve Smith the best. They need DT help and Sylvester Williams is a great prospect but they are down a 3rd round pick from a trade in last year's draft so I think moving back makes sense. They replace their lost 3rd rounder and add an early 4th as well. For MIN, it's not a steep price to pay to move ahead of STL and land their Percy Harvin replacement. Austin should be able to step right in and fill the vacancy left by him. With Jennings upgrading what they were getting from Michael Jenkins and Jerome Simpson on the other side, MIN's offense is looking a little better. Of course, QB is still the issue for them.
15. NO - Georgia DE/OLB Jarvis Jones
NO has done a lot of work on Jones and they reportedly like him a lot. They need pass rushers for their new 3-4 and Jones projects well into that scheme. Good value pick here as Jones was once projected a lot higher. If he lasts medically he should end up a solid selection in this slot.
16. STL - Alabama OG/OT D.J. Fluker
Not the best situation for STL with the draft playing out like this. Going OL would be their best bet with Vaccaro and Austin off the board. It's too early for their 2nd choice at WR (DeAndre Hopkins). Alec Ogletree might be an option, but offense is their bigger issue so I think they'll improve the blocking up front. Fluker would slide right in at RG and give them a run blocking monster. Long term, he could eventually kick out to RT and replace Roger Saffold, who might want to move on to a team where he can play (and get paid like a) LT. That's what gave him the nod over Warmack or Cooper for me. And rumors do have him coming off the board before Warmack anyway (and I have Warmack over Cooper).
17. ATL - Houston CB D.J. Hayden
ATL gets: #17
PIT gets: #30, #60
PIT would be extremely thankful that they found a trade partner with the draft going like this. Not a good selection for them here. ATL is hot on the idea of moving up for a defensive player and this is probably about where you need to go to land D.J. Hayden with the Giants at 19, CHI at 20 NYJ at 21, CAR at 23, even MIN at 25 all needing CBs to some degree. He would fill the vacancy ATL has opposite Assante Samuel at CB. They've shown a willingness to move up in the past so I think this type of move is likely for them.
18. DAL - Alabama OG Chance Warmack
The best talent on the board happens to fill a huge need. Sylvester Williams would be an option too, but I don't think they'll be able to pass up a chance to improve their OL. They need improvement in the running game and drafting better offensive linemen always helps. And with Romo getting an extension it makes sense to give him all the help they can. I think Warmack is the OG they really want, not Cooper. Just a hunch - I think Jerry is playing the draft talk game like he was last year with all his rumored interest in Barron and then Claiborne being the guy he actually moves up for.
19. NYG - Florida State DE Bjoern Werner
Not the best situation for the Giants here. Don't see a lot of trade action for this pick so they'll have to choose. It came down to the two FSU guys left - Werner or Rhodes. I'm going to take Jerry Reese's love affair with defensive linemen into consideration and go that route. Werner would be a great compliment opposite JPP when Tuck kicks inside for those Nascar packages they run. Solid bet to be a productive pro so good value pick here over the riskier Xavier Rhodes. I feel Werner is more a "Giants pick."
20. CHI - UNC OG/C Jonathan Cooper
For the Bears value meets need. They need OL help like you wouldn't believe and Cooper is the best player on the board. They'll consider Eifert here, but they can get a receiving option to compliment Bennet with a later pick. Cooper would be a huge upgrade for their OL.
21. NYJ - Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert
(sent from CIN to NYJ)
The Jets will just sit back and take Eifert of Cooper in this scenario - whoever CHI passes up. Eifert replaces the departed Dustin Keller at TE and gives them an offensive building block moving forward. Adding a pass rushing option, the top receiving TE in the draft and an extra 2nd round pick would be a great beginning to the building stage NY signified it's entering with the Revis trade.
22. STL - Clemson WR DeAndre Hopkins
Improving the OL with Fluker at #16 is a good start towards improving the offense, but STL really needs to improve the skill positions players it has surrounding Bradford. Hopkins seems to be the second WR on their board behind Tavon Austin so if they can't get the West Virginia speedster at #16 I think they'll "settle" for Hopkins at #22. That's one hell of a consolation prize as I think Hopkins is going to be a very productive pro. He'll work well with Bradford because he can catch the ball underneath and makes plays with once he's got in his hands.
23. CAR - Florida State CB Xavier Rhodes
(sent from MIN to CAR - see pick #14)
Dream scenario for CAR here. They get the guy they would have taken had they stayed at #14. The Giants going DE over CB really helped them out on this one. Rhodes takes over for the retired Chris Gamble and starts the needed upgrade of CAR's defense.
24. IND - UCLE DE Datone Jones
Jones fits Chuck Pagano's 3-4 scheme really well IMO. He would contribute as both a run stopper and pocket pusher at LDE for them. Good pick here late in the round.
25. HOU - USC WR Robert Woods
HOU gets: #25
MIN gets: #27, #160
Read some reports that GB has shown interest in Woods. I think that's the guy HOU really wants at WR so they jump 2 spots so they can make sure GB doesn't snatch him up. They really need a compliment to Andre Johnson and Woods should step in from day 1 and start (something Cordarrelle Patterson might not be able to do). MIN moved up earlier so for them moving back 2 spots makes sense. I have them taking a player that doesn't seem like someone GB would take nor a player another team would move up for.
26. GB - Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson
GB doesn't have a ton of desperate needs so they can take the by far best talent on the board in Patterson. He could really grow to be a superstar playing with Rogers in that offense with his physical skills. He's far from a sure thing, but no other player jumps off the board at this spot for GB so I think they can make a value pick. The upside is awesome for GB here and with Jennings gone and James Jones entering his contract year it's not like they couldn't use another WR.
27. MIN - Notre Dame LB Manti Te'o
(sent from HOU to MIN - see pick #25)
MIN seems to be high on him even though that isn't the case for every team. MLB is a huge need for them and he'd fill it. UNC's Sylvester Williams would be another strong candidate for them here, but MLB is a bigger need than DT for them. Austin and Te'o would each be day 1 starters and become key players to their respective sides of the ball. Good haul for MIN.
28. DEN - Texas A&M DE Demontre Moore
DEN really needs a replacement at DE for Dumerville because Derek Wolfe and Robert Ayers don't offer much in terms of pass rush off the edge. Von Miller is a beast, but you don't want him to be rushing with no compliment off the edge. There are varying opinions on Moore, but the upside is there. Von Miller talked about all the time he spent with him at Texas A&M in an NFL Network interview so I think DEN will fill the hole at DE with this pick. If he pans out he could really make DEN fans forget about Dumerville (or at least not be pissed off about the situation).
29. CAR - UNC DT Sylvester Williams
CAR gets: #29
NE gets: #44, #83
I have NE trading #59 for CLE DE Jabaal Sheard so they'll be desperate to move back. If they can't, WR is their biggest need but not sure they have Keenan Allen over Sylvester Williams. In the event they can't move out of this slot they'd probably just take Sylvester Williams for themselves and then the Sheard trade would be off (it wouldn't be officially completed until after round 1 most likely anyway in case of this exact scenario). Luckily for NE, I think CAR would be willing to move up for Williams. They need DT help and Williams would be a complete steal this late. They can look at their draft so far as having turning #14 and #44 into Xavier Rhodes, Sylvester Williams and a 4th round pick. That's a great series of moves.
30. PIT - LSU S Eric Reid
(sent from ATL to PIT - see pick #17)
S is a big need for PIT with Polamalu and Ryan Clark both potentially in there last seasons there IMO. The selection at #17 wasn't great so they moved back and picked up an extra 2nd rounder in the process. Reid would be a good fit at S for them and he's generated a lot of 1st round buzz so this is a reasonable slot for him.
31. SD - Washington CB Desmond Trufant
(sent from SF to SD - see pick #31)
SD would be very lucky to get a CB like Trufant this last in the 1st round. Him and FA signing Derek Cox is a good CB tandem to be moving forward with. They still need to improve the OL, but they can do that with one or both of their 2 2nd round picks - #34 and #45. OT Manelik Watson would be a potential pick at #34 and they could go with an OG at #45. Could be some interior OL guys for them in the 3rd too. Trufant is too good a prospect for them to pass up here IMO with CB being a position they do need to upgrade at.
32. BAL - California WR Keenan Allen
Allen would be a great replacement for the traded Anqan Boldin. BAL's other choices here are S (Matt Elam, Jonathan Cyprien) or LB (Arthur Brown, Kevin Minter). I think they can better fill S and LB with their later picks than they can WR. Greater difference between Allen and the late 2nd round WRs than the drop off at LB or S IMO. Replacing Boldin is a big need as they probably want the offense to get better to justify Flacco's contract.