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  1. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
    Ok nobody's dissented so far so I'm going to take this the next step.

    We agree that outs and total bases are the basic units to evaluate a hitter's ability. Let's start with outs.

    A raw out total doesn't tell us much, we need to make it a ratio of outs to total plate appearances, an Out Percentage (OP). Because that is a negative stat, it's better if we do 1-OP to change it to the number of times a player does NOT make an out. I'm sure you recognize that is basically OBP (some non-outs don't show up in OBP like catcher's interference or reaching on error or a non-out, fielder's choice).

    The other item was total bases and I'm sure you see where I'm going. We can go very basic and just take total bases as a percentage of plate appearances. That's not actually the same as slugging percentage (that uses at bats rather than plate appearances), but the principle is the same.

    So if you agree that the basics of hitter evaluation is about outs and total bases, then you're saying that OBP and something like SLG are the stats you want to use. As you get fancier, you can use a stat like wOBA which combines the two concepts into a more powerful stat.
    So how does a sac fly or sacrifice in general factor in? Those items are very important to the success of a hitter. If you can get the run home as a result of your AB or indirectly affecting the outcome of a run (i.e.: you bunt someone over, getting the sac, and that person scores later), it has value.

  2. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred View Post
    So how does a sac fly or sacrifice in general factor in? Those items are very important to the success of a hitter. If you can get the run home as a result of your AB or indirectly affecting the outcome of a run (i.e.: you bunt someone over, getting the sac, and that person scores later), it has value.
    Agree. It is also doing this at the right time as well.
    Quote Originally Posted by Crucis View Post
    Parity is about equality of opportunity, not equality of results.

  3. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fred View Post
    So how does a sac fly or sacrifice in general factor in? Those items are very important to the success of a hitter. If you can get the run home as a result of your AB or indirectly affecting the outcome of a run (i.e.: you bunt someone over, getting the sac, and that person scores later), it has value.
    Fred, slow down. We're in Baseball Statistics 101 right now. What you're talking about is a Baseball Statistics 102 concept.

    And Feck is hinting at a 400-level course where we need things like Markov chains.
    Last edited by The A Team; 11-21-2012 at 04:04 PM.
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  4. #169
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    So Stark is reporting the Phillies are out on Hamilton.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/s...an-league-east

    Can we closed the thread? Or is RAJ trying to be the mystery team again?

  5. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
    Fred, slow down. We're in Baseball Statistics 101 right now. What you're talking about is a Baseball Statistics 102 concept.

    And Feck is hinting at a 400-level course where we need things like Markov chains.
    ah, sorry professor...I was looking for extra credit. my bad.

  6. #171
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    Is Stark a source of accurate rumors? I almost never hear his name anymore, I forgot about him.
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  7. #172
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    Until he signs somewhere else this thread is relevant
    2011 PSD Phillies Forum HOF Inductee


    Harry, I grew up with the phillies and learned the game by your voice. You will always be missed but never forgotten. Though you are no longer with us, you'll never be "outta here" in our hearts!

  8. #173
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    Really? Jayson Stark is closer to inside info for the phillies than any other reporter including Zolecki.

    He was the first one that said phillies were the mystery team bidding for cliff lee, that wasn't that long ago.

    He was the one that just reported about Halladay was going to be extended before he got hurt this year. He is a good one to follow on twitter for the phillies.

  9. #174
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    I was going to say we were MIA with Lee until it happened

  10. #175
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    Stark tweeted that the Phillies are warily interested in Hamilton.

    edit: it's on MLBTR now too. Wary.
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  11. #176
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    Stark did the same thing in 2010. Said the Phillies weren't the mystery team and then said they were. First it's the Phillies are out and now they're in.

    Would anyone be surprised if they signed Hamilton? I honestly think they're more likely than any other team at this point. I wouldn't mind it even though we know that 3 years down the road we'll be pretty bad. Whatever go all in.

    Props to Fly-Eagles-Fly for the Sig

  12. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesJackson10 View Post
    Stark did the same thing in 2010. Said the Phillies weren't the mystery team and then said they were. First it's the Phillies are out and now they're in.

    Would anyone be surprised if they signed Hamilton? I honestly think they're more likely than any other team at this point. I wouldn't mind it even though we know that 3 years down the road we'll be pretty bad. Whatever go all in.
    Agreed, we're in win now mode with the team that we currently have. I laugh when people criticize RAJ for being too aggressive when we actually have the fan support and payroll now to sign free agents at will.

    Have I criticized some of the bad moves he's made? Absolutely, but as an aggressive GM you're bound to make a few mistakes here and there. You don't need to home grow talent when you can afford to have a top 5 payroll. Now if the fans stop showing up this will be a different story...

  13. #178
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    I'm not personally a fan of RAJ but he seems to have an affinity for acquiring big names. That's not always a bad thing (Lee trade, Halladay trade, Lee signing) but in other situations it's hurt them (Papelbon signing, Pence trade). He's just sort of a hit and miss guy. The Howard extension is a disaster while Rollins' extension looks pretty good right now. RAJ isn't a great GM but I wouldn't fault him at all for signing.

    Also how big of an ******* is this guy? He says "there aren't any impact guys. Well, maybe one." Then he gets pissed at people for asking him if he's going after Hamilton. How about not saying that **** if you don't want to get asked about Hamilton? Also does anyone really believe that he's not talking about Hamilton when he says that? I seriously doubt he's talking about Bourn.

    Props to Fly-Eagles-Fly for the Sig

  14. #179
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    there is no way the Phils can and will afford another 20m player. I would be all for it though if it was next year with Chase's contract up.

  15. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by SJSF View Post
    there is no way the Phils can and will afford another 20m player. I would be all for it though if it was next year with Chase's contract up.
    They can definitely afford it in the short term. I'm pretty sure they're about 30-40 million dollars below last years payroll right now. It's safe to assume they'll be at the number or even a little higher this year.

    Props to Fly-Eagles-Fly for the Sig

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