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  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by nicksaviking View Post
    Ryan did pretty good with free agents last year. Willingham and Burton were steals, Doumit was a good value and Carroll was at worst a push. The big bust of course was Marquis (Zumaya also was a bust, but only due to injury, well worth the risk in my book).

    I don't think anyone could call his free agency class of 2012 a bust, but it did highlight two issues. One is the fact that while the Twins did spend some free agency money last year, they still cut payroll significantly with the loss of guys like Cuddyer, Kubel and Nathan. That trend looks to continue this year as the Twins may not even have an $80 million payroll when the season starts.

    The second issue is also alarming. While Ryan did well to identify offensive players, he once again was terrible in choosing starting pitching. Marquis was awful, as was nearly every free agent starter he has ever signed. That trend continues today with the Correia signing. Keep in mind that Correia was the first starting pitcher Ryan EVER gave more than a one year deal to. EVER. (in 1998 Bob Tewksbury was given an option year) You obviously aren't going to get a good pitcher without giving up multiple years.

    Terry Ryan has done a lot of good for this club, but he either doesn't have the accumen to identify capable starting pitchers, or he doesn't have the fortitude to give the dollars or more importantly, the years get them. If he continues to demonstrate that he cannot or will not fix the Twins most pressing issue, he cannot continue to perform as GM.

    He did well to get some young ace caliber arms in Meyer and May, but what happens if they don't work out? Ryan MUST show the fans and the organization that he understands sub-standard pitching is not acceptable and use his free agent budget to acquire top of the rotation talent, even if it means his ulcers act up.
    Interesting stuff! Any thoughts on which free agents we should sign or should have signed?

  2. #92
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    Respectfully I will agree to disagree Nick.

    Going out and overspending for marginal number 2-3 type pitchers for 12-16 million and they end up with an era over 4 and have them stuck in our payroll is NOT responsible. I to would like us to be the Angels and spen on A+ players but that is not reality of our situation and will never be.

    Ryan has put us in possition to be competing for the division championship for a decade and HAS improved out rotation from last year that can not be argued.

    We can all play the "what if" games but he is in the possition of "doing" what he and the team feel are in the best interest of the team. Diamond was a trade player most went "what the ****" and he turns into a very solid pitcher. Example of knowing potential more than we do.

    Don't forget Ryan is not paying the players but ownership is and they are the ones taking on the risk. Again low risk players (Correa, Pelfrey, Worley) with potential good to great reward is what he is likely being asked to do while replenishing the stud pitching in the minors which he has also done.

    Tell me the last time the Twin's went out and "overspent" for a top end FA. I would like to now because it would be a 1st. We won't as that is not (and should not) be our style. Being financially irrisponsible is NOT a good thing.

    Our biggest issue is replenishing our minor system with "gems" like TB to rotate in as we go which is a system failure at this point and why we have made so many changes in our coaching in the minor leagues.

  3. #93
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    I was in favor of trading for Dan Haren. Once he became a free agent, I would have liked Ryan to have targeted him. I think Edwin Jackson would be a good target, though it's reported that it's down to the Rangers and Cubs for his services.

    Jackson has never been an ace, but he throws hard and has some strikeout ability. The positive thing about Jackson is, that even if you have to pay him $13 million/year and he's does not pitch up to that level, his track record shows that he almost certainly won't be a complete bust. At worst he'll pitch to a $10 million level. He's also proven to be a very tradable commodity.

    I also would be willing to give multiple years to Shaun Marcum. He has some injury concerns, but has shown the ability to strike guys out regularly.

    My rant above not withstanding, it is possible that Ryan was completely honest when he told MLB TV that he was making offers to guys but no one wanted to sign with the Twins. I find it more likely that he was not offering the same kind of contracts, as far as years or money, as the other clubs though. History shows that Ryan does not like to offer pitchers multi-year deals.

    This is the perfect time to take a chance on a long term contract though. The payroll is likely going to be around $80 million this year. Additionally, over the next half decade, the Twins are going to be relying on all the prospects that are nearing the MLB level. The payroll is likely going to be quite low until some of those guys really take off and start generating large arbitration figures, which is a long way off. Spending $10-15 million on a pitcher over the next four years should not affect this team unless the goal is to try to get back to Pirates level payroll.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by specialiststeve View Post
    Ryan has put us in possition to be competing for the division championship for a decade and HAS improved out rotation from last year that can not be argued.
    I agree with a lot of what you said, but so much has changed since the Twins were winning divisions using the old Terry Ryan method. The league is now dominated by teams with not just capable pitching staffs, but rotations that have at least 4 starters who can manage a 7.0 K/9, because the good clubs realize if they take errors, lucky bloopers and bad hops out of the equation, you're going to prevent a lot of runs and runners can't advance.

    I do have to in a way disagree that the rotation is improved from last year. I'll admit that it is better than the end product, but it is worse than what it was looking like this time last year. Last year at this time they had a healthy Baker, Pavano and Liriano. Last year we were disappointed that Ryan signed a poor pitcher like Jason Marquis to be the teams FIFTH starter, this year, we're upset because he signed a similarly poor pitcher in Kevin Correia to be the THIRD starter.

    But my biggest point of contention was in my previous post, why not take a chance on a pitcher now? The Twins probably won't have a payroll over $80 million for at least 6 years, why can't they afford to take a chance on a three or four year deal for a pitcher? It wouldn't affect the rebuild effort at all and that money is going no where but into the Pohlad's pocket even though our tacit agreement with them was we will build you a stadium and you give us a competitive team.

    Being irresponsible with a contract right now affects nothing except for the unjustifiably low payroll over the next few years. And besides, the new market rate for any capable pitcher now seems to be about $8 million at minimum, so unless we are going to be satisfied with a rotation full of 5th starters and guys too young to get arbitration, it's time to get on board with the rest of the league. It only delays the process if the Twins drag their feet and complain that the other clubs shouldn't be offering those kinds of contracts. It's not overpaying if it's now the market median.

  5. #95
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    It's not overpaying if it's now the market median.
    Kind of like the stock market if you buy a stock at market "median" but the value is not good you get bad results.

    Anibal Sanchez= career 48w-51 L --3.76 ERa 16 mil --- 16 mil per year for 5 years. (add he has had health issues)

    Vance Worley = career 18w-13L ---- 3.51 ERA at 495 k

    Mike Pelfrey = career 50w-54 L --- 4.37 ERA ---- 4 mil one year deal

    Kevin Correia = career 60w-65 l ----4.55 ERA --- 5 mil for two years.



    for a 11 or 12 mil and 3 or 4 more years we can have a bit better or we can pay for a bit less and get about a 1/2 run more per game diff. This is what Ryan is looking at while he tries to establish the staff from within. Cornering yourself for minimal improved numbers is not worth the value.

    Again we are a value team and that is the reality - those that don't accept that are just going to work themselves up until they accept the "Twin's way".

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by specialiststeve View Post
    Kind of like the stock market if you buy a stock at market "median" but the value is not good you get bad results.

    Anibal Sanchez= career 48w-51 L --3.76 ERa 16 mil --- 16 mil per year for 5 years. (add he has had health issues)

    Vance Worley = career 18w-13L ---- 3.51 ERA at 495 k

    Mike Pelfrey = career 50w-54 L --- 4.37 ERA ---- 4 mil one year deal

    Kevin Correia = career 60w-65 l ----4.55 ERA --- 5 mil for two years.



    for a 11 or 12 mil and 3 or 4 more years we can have a bit better or we can pay for a bit less and get about a 1/2 run more per game diff. This is what Ryan is looking at while he tries to establish the staff from within. Cornering yourself for minimal improved numbers is not worth the value.

    Again we are a value team and that is the reality - those that don't accept that are just going to work themselves up until they accept the "Twin's way".
    I guess what you are saying is that the Twins need to play "moneyball" and I was thinking the same thing. That's why I asked about players we should target in my last post. Are there any that could really make a difference? Are we better of hoping Deduno somehow learns to find the strike zone or taking a flyer on Jurrjens. Pelfrey was once a top prospect. I don't think they should do anything over 3 years. We can't afford to have a $15M Nick Blackburn 4 or 5 years from now.

  7. #97
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    To be fair, I didn't list Sanchez because I was never too high on him and you're right, the Twins do bargain shop, but it doesn't work. This team isn't going to compete if it doesn't aim higher than signing these kind of pitchers. The payroll is there, not using it only benefits the Pohlads not the team.

    Regardless, I've put this stuff on the backburner and I'm not going to let myself get worked up over it. I just read a touching article about a sheep/cat freindship that has put this silly baseball stuff in perspective.

    http://www.inforum.com/event/article/id/383820/

  8. #98
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    IMO it doesn't benefit the Pohlads either. They don't have a NY market to generate revenue from, but the market is strong enough to justify a larger payroll than they've had the last couple years. In business it's a losing and defeatist's attitude to say 'hey, we didn't make the money we should have last year...we need to cut costs'....more often than not, that mindset just continues to keep your bottom line stagnant. From a baseball perspective, if you want fans to keep filling the stadium and buying merchandise, you gotta do your best to improve the team every year.

    Ya gotta spend money to make money. No, not $200mil in this market, but not $80mil either.
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  9. #99
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    Sorry to go on a rant but i have to say it, What has the twins way gotten us over the past few years? We haven't been contending in a while. do you think other teams have gotten successful by just what the twins are doing now? No they don't they spend money to improve there team and hope some of there prospects develop and to come up and produce winning shouldn't be put on all these prospects backs we need to get out our wallets and start spending so we can contend.

  10. #100
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    The Cubs signed Carlos Villanueva to a 2 year $10 million deal. The same the Twins gave to Kevin Correia. I think most people would have much preferred Villanueva as there is some potential with him. Additionally, Villanueva has proven to be a useful bullpen arm should he not work out as a starter. With Correia's awful K/9 rate, he would only be used as a long man. You can't (or shouldn't) bring him in with runners on in a high leverage situation seeing as he'll most certainly let the batter put the ball in play and let the runners advance.

  11. #101
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    we know why Ryan didn't go after Edwin Jackson....we weren't going to give him $13mil/per like the Cubs are offering him
    gotta love 'referential' treatment

  12. #102
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    Ya gotta spend money to make money. No, not $200mil in this market, but not $80mil either.


    I do believe we need to spend the money when it is right but more importantly is the actual moves and who we moving and getting to strenghthen our team. Just last year .......

    Oakland - 49 mil payroll

    Tampa - 65 mil

    Reds 75 mil

    Washington 80 mil

    Baltamore 80 mil

    Braves 82 mil.


    Again it is what we do with our money that counts. What we need to do is get a "super" minor league system especially pitching and keep exchanging like TB. It can be done but it is just not easy.

    I to think 100 to 120 "should" be our payroll but you and I are not cutting the checks! Boy I wish I was

  13. #103
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    We have been linked to Freddy Garcia according to mlbtraderumours.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/1...dy-garcia.html

  14. #104
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    La Velle, says the Twins have been talking with Rich Harden. He'd likely only get a minor league deal with a spring training invite. I'd take a flier on him in a heartbeat. With the shambles the rotation is in, it would be nice to take a chance on a fireballer to take the mound every 5th game, but perhaps this is the year that he finally converts to the bullpen.

    He really seems like the kind of guy who might stay healthy and rediscover a second career if he makes that move. He's injury prone but can shut anyone down when he's on his game. Whichever role he takes, I like a low money/low risk gamble on him much more than the other signings the Twins have made.

  15. #105
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    Anyone hoping for a Liriano reunion has had their Christmas ruined. The Pirates signed him for 2 years and $14 million. That's pretty pricey for a guy who's had an ERA +5.00 the last two years. They have more pitching depth than the Twins however, and if he fails, he'd likely still be a better bullpen option than someone like the soft-tossing Kevin Correia.

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