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  1. #1
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    Prospect Updates, Part 3

    Apparently the 1,000 post thing is still a, uh, thing.

    Baseball Prospectus has been on a bit of a hiatus from their prospect lists. The Phillies are third in line and I'd expect it to be up around the middle of next week (depends if they put the Padres out this week).
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  2. #2
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    Any thoughts on how BP's list may differ from BA or Sickel's (spelling?)? BA seemed to give a little more credit to the younger guys with high upside/potential, while Sickel seemed to value players who were more MLB ready than some of the others... Sickel also had a high number of relievers between 10-20 which surprised me. He left off guys like Gillies, Cozens, LGJr, etc. in favor of guys like Simon and Milner.

  3. #3
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    I haven't really looked into it.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  4. #4
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    Phillies are up next on the BPro docket. The DBacks ran today so I'm guessing the Phils will run on Weds/Thurs.

    The Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30 is live today with Jesse Biddle day. It's a fun process and the comments are often quite informative. The site has put in a good effort to stay relevant without James, although the quality of insight feels down.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
    Phillies are up next on the BPro docket. The DBacks ran today so I'm guessing the Phils will run on Weds/Thurs.

    The Phuture Phillies Reader Top 30 is live today with Jesse Biddle day. It's a fun process and the comments are often quite informative. The site has put in a good effort to stay relevant without James, although the quality of insight feels down.
    what happened to James??? Took a position elsewhere?
    Last edited by Synyster89; 01-07-2013 at 05:34 PM.
    Proud Temple University Alumni
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    I hate domes... Brees wouldnt have a Job if there were no Domes

  6. #6
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    He got tired of upkeeping the site and wanted to work on other projects.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  7. #7
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    1. Biddle
    2. Morgan
    3. Quinn
    4. Joseph
    5.Martin
    6. Pettibone
    7. Ruf
    8. Franco
    9. Asche
    10. Tocci

    My Top 10 at the moment. If Tocci's body develops as he ages and he can add some power, he could be a bonafide blue chip prospect. From all the reports, he could already play GG caliber defense in CF and he has Roman Quinn type speed. He is the hardest to project at this point because of his age, but I'm excited for his future.

  8. #8
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    My top 10 are:

    Biddle
    Morgan
    Quinn
    Ruf
    Joseph
    Tocci
    Pettibone
    Martin
    Gillies
    Franco

    I'm out on a limb with Ruf at 4, Tocci at 6, and Gillies at 9.

    For Gillies, I'm simply not penalizing him very much for his poor health. Maybe that's not a reasonable thing for me to do, but I'm going to assume he can get past his previous misdiagnosed injury.

    Reportedly, Tocci's defense is already so good that his empty batting line from 2012 would produce a 4 WAR CFer. A defense first prospect is not the sexiest thing, but if the bat comes along even a little bit, he will be very valuable.

    Ruf draws a good grade because I expect about 10 WAR from his club controlled years with the potential for a much higher number. None of our other prospects have a higher expected WAR.
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  9. #9
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    I've heard very little on Franco other than that he compares to Domingo Santana in his age at signing, height, and the fact that he'll have to fill out physically to reach his potential.

    Was Santana a more highly regarded prospect at the same point in his development, or is Franco just too young to make heads or tails of?

    Learning to love the bomb since 2009

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  10. #10
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    I think they're regarded pretty similarly. Santana garnered more popularity because he had a stronger stats line in his debut.
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  11. #11
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    Welcome back Kdol! Over two years since you last posted, but it seems like yesterday. The Phillies forum will rise again

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by The A Team View Post
    My top 10 are:

    Biddle
    Morgan
    Quinn
    Ruf
    Joseph
    Tocci
    Pettibone
    Martin
    Gillies
    Franco

    I'm out on a limb with Ruf at 4, Tocci at 6, and Gillies at 9.

    For Gillies, I'm simply not penalizing him very much for his poor health. Maybe that's not a reasonable thing for me to do, but I'm going to assume he can get past his previous misdiagnosed injury.

    Reportedly, Tocci's defense is already so good that his empty batting line from 2012 would produce a 4 WAR CFer. A defense first prospect is not the sexiest thing, but if the bat comes along even a little bit, he will be very valuable.

    Ruf draws a good grade because I expect about 10 WAR from his club controlled years with the potential for a much higher number. None of our other prospects have a higher expected WAR.
    Gillies was the hardest one for me to leave off along with Watson and Gueller. Right now I think that Gillies could be a fourth outfielder, and if he could stay healthy has the potential to be an above average center fielder. I just don't like seeing all the missed ABs over the last couple of years since he joined the Pharm. Watson and Gueller were easier to leave off simply because I haven't seen a full season yet from either.

  13. #13
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    I forgot that both Aumont and DeFratus are still eligible. Aumont slots ahead of Tocci on my list and DeFratus ahead of Martin.

    I ran some numbers on Ruf. I have him projected for about 9% BB/9, 22% K/9, .290 ISO, and .300 BABIP in roughly 475 PA. That shakes out to a .227/.297/.517 line. The OBP is obviously cringe worthy, but an .814 OPS is nothing to sneeze at from a free player.
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  14. #14
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    BPro's list is out, but behind the paywall.

    Here's the order, I'll drop more tidbits later.

    The Top Ten

    LHP Jesse Biddle
    3B Maikel Franco
    LHP Adam Morgan
    IF Roman Quinn
    C/1B Tommy Joseph
    RHP Ethan Martin
    3B Cody Asche
    RHP Jonathan Pettibone
    OF Carlos Tocci
    RHP Shane Watson
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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  15. #15
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    In addition to those 10, here are some others who were mentioned.

    Prospects on the Rise:

    1. OF/IF Andrew Pullin: A fifth-round draft pick in 2012, Pullin shows very good bat-to-ball ability, and if he can make the transition to second base, has the type of offensive profile to have value at the position.

    2. C Gabriel Lino: Loud tools, especially the raw power and arm strength, but so far the promising physical characteristics have yet to make an impact in game action. He’s a long shot, but a promising dream nonetheless, and if he can bring those tools to baseball life, he has a chance to become a very legit prospect.

    3. RHP Mitch Gueller: A supplemental first-round pick in 2012 and a promising two-way amateur player, Gueller has an excellent combination of present size and projectable stuff, including a fastball that already sits in the plus velocity range and could develop into a legit plus-plus offering.

    Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013

    1. OF/1B Darin Ruf: Ruf was the 2012’s season pop-up prospect of the year, trashing the minors before an impressive 12-game clip at the highest level. The scouting industry is mixed on his future, with the a vocal majority questioning his sustainability at the level, while others insist this is a legit major-league bat, one capable of 25-plus home runs.

    2. RHP Phillippe Aumont: It seems like Aumont has been a prospect for a decade, but the former first-round pick just turned 24, and after a major-league taste in 2012, will look to bring his heavy mid-90s bowling ball fastball to a late-innings role.

    3. LHP Jake Diekman: 95 mph from the left-side is always a thing of beauty, and when that heat is delivered from a lengthy 6’4’’, 200 lb. frame, along with a sharp slider that misses bats, you have yourself a prospect that should develop into a major-league force. The command needs to improve to find sustainable success, but as his 27-inning sample showed, Diekman can miss bats at any level of professional baseball.
    Now writing for FanGraphs, RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, and The Fake Baseball

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