1. Castro is set for life, and will be eligible for a new big time deal during his peak.
2. It's fair to the Cubs, because they are getting control over him during the years they are likely to be a great team.
This is not a steal for the Cubs, they basically paid him his near market value. Remember, he was going to be a Super 2 and you were going to have to pay him in arb, and you bought out 4 years of free agency at basically market value.
You have to break the deal down into two separate contracts
The arb years
He was due 1.2-2 million in 2013
4-6 in 2014
6-8 in 2015
8-10 in 2016 (assuming he stays on track with current production)
So all together, about 22.5 in arb pay was coming to him regardless over the next 4 years
The Cubs went ahead and controlled those potentially escalating salaries by giving him 23 million for those 4 years.
So fair deal for both parties.
But the Cubs guaranteed that money in order to have control over his free agent years
What Castro would get on the open market is open for speculation, but if he just simply maintained his level of play from the past two seasons (no improvement, no regression) he would probably be worth a 6/70 deal as a late 20's shortstop.
cubs promised him 31 million over 3 years, with the upside of 46 million over 4 years.
Pretty much in line with his overall production. Castro will earn this contract if he simply stays healthy and doesn't regress. But it's also not a total steal for the Cubs, and it won't be without some serious improvement.
Castro isn't likely to turn into a Troy Tulowitzki, but he should be a top 5 shortstop moving forward. Which helps make this deal a nice peace of mind for the Cubs.
he also has to stick at shortstop, and I think he can, and Baez will simply get third base when that time comes.
Btw, league market rates should be compared to the position, he is a shortstop, a 3 WAR shortstop does not cost the same as a 3 WAR First Basemen. Going by the assumption that 1 WAR = 5 million on the open market is false. For a shortstop, 1 WAR actually equals about 2.75 million based on the pay the position receives.
Castros needs to average 4 WAR per year to really earn this deal, but fortunately, he is very likely to do that.
It was a fair deal for both sides.
Sorry just jumping in Gaughan.
for the cubs, this was worth it on two fronts. You have a shortstop that is worth something locked up and under team control for 8 seasons. You don't have to worry about that position for almost a decade, and if he regresses, he can likely move to second base without much issue. It also tells the fans the plan. And it was worth it to them because they wanted to buy out a few seasons of free agency.
But it's not a steal unless Castro becomes one of the best shortstops of all time during this deal. I'm not so sure that happens. He isn't a 20 million a year player likely. Maybe he could become one, but I doubt it personally.