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  1. #1
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    Update: Dodgers sign Greinke to 6 yr/$147MM Contract Post #106

    I figure we'll likely be getting a lot of news and rumors this off-season about Greinke so we might as well have a thread dedicated to him. Additionally, I wanted to write about my view on the Greinke issue and spent enough time on it that I didn't want it to be jumbled into the Off-Season thread.

    Here's my take:

    While most of us seem to think the Angels have a good chance at re-signing Greinke, it's still far from a foregone conclusion. Greinke is likely to get heavy interest from teams such as the Rangers, Tigers, White Sox, Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Braves, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and likely others. This could drive up his price to about six to seven years at a price between $120-150 million. While I would love to bring Greinke back, I believe giving him a contract in excess of six years and approximately $105 MIL would be a mistake.

    There's no doubt that the rotation is a major weakness for the Angels right now, but I believe it might behoove the Angels to pass on Greinke if the bidding gets out of hand and aim to sign two mid-level starting pitchers instead, Anibal Sanchez and Shaun Marcum come to mind. While I understand that the Angels are a large market team with no shortage of resources, they have a lot of future payroll tied up already and signing Greinke would only add onto that load. Additionally, assuming Trout has another god-like year in 2013, the Angels will likely have to explore the possibility of signing Trout to a mega contract similar to the one Pujols signed one year ago. While the Angels may have no shortage of resources, they do have limits on payroll if they don't want to get hit with the luxury tax.

    It seems almost pointless to say this given the past year, but spending excessively does not instantaneously push a team into the playoffs. The Angels spent over $300 MIL in new contracts last winter and didn't make the playoffs. The Red Sox, Rangers, Phillies, and Marlins all had payrolls in the top ten and didn't make the playoffs or got eliminated in one game. I'm not proposing that we try to cut payroll, but I think we need to spend more wisely. The Cardinals are a good example of what I'm trying to say. They lost Pujols to the Angels because they weren't willing to go beyond years and salary figures that they weren't comfortable with. They then went and signed Carlos Beltran to a contract worth less than 1/10 of what Pujols got and received similar, if not better, production.

    The same logic holds for the situation the Angels find themselves in with Greinke. Let some other team overspend on years and money while the Angels sign two players for much less and receive similar production. While signing Greinke would make a great 1-2-3 punch of Weaver, Wilson and Greinke, I would prefer a fuller rotation of Weaver, Wilson, Sanchez and Marcum/Haren. That rotation seems more reliable and allows for less pressure to be put on three people. Additionally, they wouldn't be paying as much and wouldn't be taking as much of a risk since neither pitcher is likely to ask for more than a three to four year deal.

    Obviously the strategy of outspending almost everyone hasn't been working the past couple years. Yet, instead of changing our strategy, we've simply tried to outspend our opponents even more. I'm not saying I don't appreciate the signings of Pujols and Wilson, but it is an undeniable fact that the Angels took big risks with both of those deals. My proposal is that we stop taking high priced risks. Zack Greinke is a high priced risk. The Angels already have enough uncertainty looking at them in the future and do they really need more?

  2. #2
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    I have a feeling Greinke won't recieve the $120-$150M. I have no idea what that's based on, but it's just a gut feeling I have. Maybe he will, though. I don't know. Greinke is a really good SP and the top FA this offseason, so a six to seven year deal at that dollar amount would be deserved for himself/his career. I just hope Dipoto holds onto Haren until they re-sign Greinke (hint: re-sign him!) Obviously not at any cost, but I think it's really important that they have him behind Weaver in the #2 or #3 spot of the rotation. Once the Greinke/Haren situations are handled, then the bullpen needs to be second priority. On a side note: any update regarding Hunter? At first I read an article linking him to the Tigers, but now I'm seeing the Yankees getting involved.
    Last edited by RaiderNation24; 11-01-2012 at 10:53 PM.

  3. #3
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    Cole Hamels got a 7 year deal worth $157 MIL. Imagine if he had hit the open market. Of course, he's a left handed SP, so I don't expect Greinke to necessarily get that much, but crazier things have happened. But he'll definitely receive a deal around $120 MIL.

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    Seems more than likely that will happen. Do you have an honest opinion or guess as to the Angels' chances of re-signing Greinke based on that dollar amount range?

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    Quote Originally Posted by RaiderNation24 View Post
    Seems more than likely that will happen. Do you have an honest opinion or guess as to the Angels' chances of re-signing Greinke based on that dollar amount range?
    Based on everything Dipoto is doing to clear money for Greinke, I think it's highly likely he'll be with us next year. And I'll be happy if he is, but you have to wonder if it's the best move for the franchise long term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GA16Angels View Post
    Based on everything Dipoto is doing to clear money for Greinke, I think it's highly likely he'll be with us next year. And I'll be happy if he is, but you have to wonder if it's the best move for the franchise long term.
    Given that Dipoto has declined Haren's option, traded Santana, and is highly unlikely to re-sign Hunter, I wonder how that affects the Greinke situation. Assuming the Angels do re-sign Greinke, what means does Dipoto have to address the bullpen? On a side note: I've read articles (mlbtraderumors.com) linking the Angels trying to begin talks with the Red Sox regarding Wells for Lackey (a swap for bad contracts.) I can't see a team dumping enormous contracts near the end of last season to make room financially only to pick-up a bad one from another team. If Cody Ross doesn't remain in Boston, then hopefully this would be a trade their organization would begin to seriously consider if they need an outfielder.

  7. #7
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    I really see the Dodgers signing him Zack Greinke and throwing crazy money at him. It will be a bidding war with Arte versus Guggenheim, I am afraid Arte is going to lose this one. Can we say 6 years at 140 million?

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    He wants 25 mill per year...

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by popo85 View Post
    He wants 25 mill per year...
    If that report is true, I say screw that. Sign Anibal Sanchez and Shaun Marcum/Edwin Jackson to make up for it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by popo85 View Post
    He wants 25 mill per year...
    Where do you see that?

    Quote Originally Posted by GA16Angels View Post
    If that report is true, I say screw that. Sign Anibal Sanchez and Shaun Marcum/Edwin Jackson to make up for it.
    Just because he wants 25M per doesnt mean he will get it.

    Hamilton wants 175M over 7 years. Guthrie wants 34M over 3 years. No way either guy gets that.

    25M is likely Greinke's starting point. I think he will settle in somewhere between 20M-22M
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  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by vladdy#27 View Post
    Where do you see that?



    Just because he wants 25M per doesnt mean he will get it.

    Hamilton wants 175M over 7 years. Guthrie wants 34M over 3 years. No way either guy gets that.

    25M is likely Greinke's starting point. I think he will settle in somewhere between 20M-22M
    I get that, but look who we're up against. The Dodgers. The team that seemingly equates one billion dollars to a penny. And the report was on ESPN I believe, I'll look for the link.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by GA16Angels View Post
    I get that, but look who we're up against. The Dodgers. The team that seemingly equates one billion dollars to a penny. And the report was on ESPN I believe, I'll look for the link.
    The Dodgers already have 192M in salary not including their arb guys. Are they really going to push there salary to 220M?

    Im more worried about the Rangers.

    I just hope if he doesnt sign here that we dont make a panic signing and give Hamilton 150M+
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by vladdy#27 View Post
    The Dodgers already have 192M in salary not including their arb guys. Are they really going to push there salary to 220M?

    Im more worried about the Rangers.

    I just hope if he doesnt sign here that we dont make a panic signing and give Hamilton 150M+
    The Dodgers have already made it clear that they don't care about paying a luxury tax and will let payroll go as high as it needs to to win. I'd be surprised if they don't offer him a mega-deal. The Rangers I'm not too concerned about since I think we can outbid them on almost any free agent.

  14. #14
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    Vladdy it was on the mlb page on the forum

    http://forums.prosportsdaily.com/sho...d.php?t=777775

    And it looks like the Dodgers are willing to spend

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/st...w-york-yankees

  15. #15
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    I am not too concerned with the Rangers but the Dodgers scaries the hell out of me. There like a new kid on the block and is let loose in a candy store.

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