Realistically, I'd say it's going to be Thole and Martin. The Mets don't seem to want to keep Shoppach and I don't think that Olivo likes New York, so to make up for the power we'd let go with Shoppach, we're going to sign Martin for somewhat cheap, maybe around 3 million.
Yeah Pena and Maldonado are so incredibly similar, they both started their pro-careers at 17.
Maldonado at 22(mostly High-A): .201/.295/.257, 9.7% BB rate and 17.6% K rate with 46% CS rate
Pena at 22 in High-A and AA: .228/.302/.377, 9% BB rate and 18.1% K rate with 45% CS rate
So Pena was actually better than Maldonado at the same age, so it's not a stretch to believe that Pena can develop into a solid starting catcher. Catchers always seem to develop their offense later than other position players.
I dunno, similar numbers in the minors, but Maldonado broke out a bit at age 24(though that could of been PCL aided). Catchers do take a bit of time to mature and develop and Pena could obviously get better still.
The comparison is not far fetch. I still have hopes for Pena, but again am not holding my breath.