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  1. #76
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    Will like to see my Diamondbacks make a push for Dan Haren, Supposedly they want to add a veteran arm to the rotation.

  2. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    A decent starter isn't worth two top 50 specs. Being top 50 means most people think they has a change to be much better than average.
    What does posting a K rate of 5 in AAA usually mean? Or striking out 101 times in 420 PAs in a fairly offense friendly AA league at 23? Why is the only thing we are working with here their PRE-2012 ranking on lists? Thats the only information available?

    Perez is a big project as a pitcher still, and is years from his ceiling unless huge leaps forward are taken. What can he land? By virtue of being a top 50 prospect, is it really that much? Is that how it works? Hell, Olt has a couple usable tools right now - some power, patience, and a good looking 3B glove - but is a project as far as putting the bat on the ball at the big league level.

    Decent is a pretty vague word obviously used for the negative connotation it allows for in this context. Well above average is what the numbers say. Not only that, but were still talking a starter who is still new to the starting game, owns an ideal starting frame (6 foot 6 inches 235 with elite athleticism for a pitcher as a former top two sport athlete), strong mechanics, and the second best average fastball velocity of any starter in the league last year.

    Two questions:

    Why doesnt Texas need another starter? Theyve been looking for another TOR arm for the past 3 years, and Darvish came only after they lost Wilson. Holland has yet to take the leap forward they hoped AND their offense could/should regress a little.

    What *is* fair value then, in whoevers opinion?
    Last edited by SenorGato; 11-01-2012 at 12:39 PM.

  3. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Yeah but the LH sporting an almost 1:1 K:BB with a K rate <5 per 9 in AAA is flawless, as is the 24 year old 3B with little AAA action, much Ks, worries about his hit tool, and no starting spot open are valued peeeerfectly fine.

    Cost controlled power pitching is cheap!

    Samardzija put up 3.3 fWAR, 3.55 FIP/3.38 xFIP, a K per inning, less than 3 BBs per 9, and all this in his first season as a starter. Those are not slightly above average numbers.
    Do you know what the NL League average starter posts?

    He had a 103 ERA+ (league average is 100)
    league average starter last season
    4.04 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 2.70 fWAR, 2.81 BB/9, 7.28 K/9

    Yes, slightly better than league average.


    Also, ShaunMarcum is completely irrelevant and Brett Lawrie was and is a significantly better prospect than both of those guys. As usual, you find a way to undersell what the Cubs have (despite your hopes that they become great through waiting!) and overrate the crap out of prospects.
    I would love for you to find an example of a deal that has happened in baseball history that shows a pitcher of Shark's numbers and cost control and age where the team trading him net a top 50 prospect.

    It hasn't happened. This isn't me over-rating anybody. I can't believe you think you could net a top 50 prospect for him (and possibly more).

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    What does posting a K rate of 5 in AAA usually mean? Or striking out 101 times in 420 PAs in a fairly offense friendly AA league at 23? Why is the only thing we are working with here their PRE-2012 ranking on lists? Thats the only information available?
    John Sickels updated rankings just now:

    Perez is the 33rd top pitcher
    Olt is the 16th top position player


    Why doesnt Texas need another starter? Theyve been looking for another TOR arm for the past 3 years, and Darvish came only after they lost Wilson. Holland has yet to take the leap forward they hoped AND their offense could/should regress a little.
    They would like a top of the rotation arm, but they don't NEED one, and if they are going to give up a top 50 prospect, they will go after someone....ya know.....good.

    Like Josh Johnson or James Shields


    If Shark joined the Rangers rotation at this moment, he would be their 3 or 4

    1. Darvish
    2. Harrison

    Shark's value is almost neutral with Feldman and Lewis, rounding out their top 5, and they are optimistic that Feliz can still start and can always go to Ogando in a pinch.

    If they are going to add someone, he needs to be clearly better than the Feldman/Lewis combo that already exists. Why would they give up a top 50 prospect (when they clearly didn't want to last year) for a guy that would in reality, be towards the back end of their rotation?
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 11-01-2012 at 04:02 PM.

  5. #80
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    John Sickels updated rankings just now:

    Perez is the 33rd top pitcher
    Olt is the 16th top position player
    Congrats. There are many more numbers involved in how you evaluate prospects. Rankings are nice, performance and context are much more relevant. Believe it or not - 33rd ranked pitching prospects and 16th ranked position player prospects have fallen below expectations in the past and will continue to do so.

    They would like a top of the rotation arm, but they don't NEED one, and if they are going to give up a top 50 prospect, they will go after someone....ya know.....good.
    Yes, like Samardzija. This isnt that complicated, but you have this habit of insisting things that arent true as true because you opine them that way. Despite being a numbers guy when its convenient, somehow Samardzijas performance isnt hitting you. Your choice, but it does not change that they were...ya know...very good.

    So two older, more expensive, closer to FA pitchers who are bigger names, one with a pretty significant injury history who lost over a MPH a year after losing almost a full MPH on his fastball are their only options? Yeah, I dont see that being wildly more appealing than Samardzija, particularly given that both of those pitchers will require an arm and a leg in a trade as well. Do they buy a name because of the name and the past or do they do what theyve been doing better than everyone else in recent years - scout out a still young talent who probably has not yet peaked? This is often the difference between franchises on the way up and the ones on the way down.

    If Shark joined the Rangers rotation at this moment, he would be their 3 or 4

    1. Darvish
    2. Harrison
    Um yes, the point would be to improve the depth of the rotation. The way to do that is to have your 3rd starter be a really good pitcher, making Holland an excellent 4th, and so on. That is how you build depth, by building on what is there. It is not a bad thing, or a knock on Samardzija, that he is not instantly their ace. It speaks to the Rangers talent level, which is kind of why they were one of the three or four best teams in baseball last year and have been the past 2-4 years.

    Shark's value is almost neutral with Feldman and Lewis,
    Lol no. Hes younger than both, cheaper than both, throws harder than both, is bigger than both, threw more innings than both, struck out more batters than both, gets more groundballs or gets them at a similar rate...

    If they are going to add someone, he needs to be clearly better than the Feldman/Lewis combo that already exists. Why would they give up a top 50 prospect (when they clearly didn't want to last year) for a guy that would in reality, be towards the back end of their rotation?
    Because, in reality, that makes a ridiculously deep, strong, and high velocity rotation. Crazy as it sounds - teams value that even more than non-elite prospects. It has the real life effect of making the team better now, rather than maybe in a few years when Perez and Olt figure out their game. Also, in reality, hes a bigger upside option than both of those pitchers as shown above, and performance better than both, in a widely significant fashion, last year.

    Seriously...Feldman and Lewis? What year are we in? Feldman hasnt even been a full time starter since 2009.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 11-01-2012 at 05:46 PM.

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    John Sickels updated rankings just now:

    Perez is the 33rd top pitcher
    Olt is the 16th top position player




    They would like a top of the rotation arm, but they don't NEED one, and if they are going to give up a top 50 prospect, they will go after someone....ya know.....good.

    Like Josh Johnson or James Shields


    If Shark joined the Rangers rotation at this moment, he would be their 3 or 4

    1. Darvish
    2. Harrison

    Shark's value is almost neutral with Feldman and Lewis, rounding out their top 5, and they are optimistic that Feliz can still start and can always go to Ogando in a pinch.

    If they are going to add someone, he needs to be clearly better than the Feldman/Lewis combo that already exists. Why would they give up a top 50 prospect (when they clearly didn't want to last year) for a guy that would in reality, be towards the back end of their rotation?
    LOL. Don't think so.

  7. #82
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    I see AJ Pierzynski signing with the Yankees. Yeah i know has nothing to do with the argument you guys got going on just thought i'd share that.

  8. #83
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    Do you know what the NL League average starter posts?

    He had a 103 ERA+ (league average is 100)
    league average starter last season
    4.04 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 3.98 xFIP, 2.70 fWAR, 2.81 BB/9, 7.28 K/9

    Yes, slightly better than league average.
    You realize that 3.38 xFIP is more than HALF A RUN lower? That 3.3 WAR is more than HALF A WIN better than the average? That 9.27 is TWO strikeouts higher than average...This is SLIGHT? 3.55 is almost half a run lower than the average FIP? Jesus...This is why numbers being in the hands of anyone who knows FanGraphs exists scares me btw - it still comes down to how you write about it and spin it.

    Slight lol...Half a run is the difference between David Price and Jon Neise in xFIP. .6 WAR is the difference between Cole Hamels and Matt Harrison (well, actually .7). 2 strikeouts the difference between Justin Verlander and Trevor Cahill. These are not slight in anything but your spin.

    As for an example...Dont care, I refuse to play your game on this. Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson netted top 50 prospect and another prospect turned major leaguer - there was no precedent for such a deal. Hell, theres more precedent for Samardzija netting some damn good prospects (Pineda for Montero, a top 10 prospect in the game, Garza for Archer/Lee/three others) than there was for that deal, which Im sure you would have told me were impossible at the time.

    More numbers:

    Samardzijas xFIP ranked 13th in all of baseball.
    His FIP ranked 26th in baseball.
    As stated earlier: 2nd hardest fastball velocity in baseball.
    4th highest K rate in baseball.

    But hey...you insist thats slightly above average. What could beat that?
    Last edited by SenorGato; 11-01-2012 at 06:08 PM.

  9. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by stlfan544 View Post
    I see AJ Pierzynski signing with the Yankees. Yeah i know has nothing to do with the argument you guys got going on just thought i'd share that.
    That would be comedy gold in NY. I could see it happening too, and I dont think its a bad thing for the Yankees.

  10. #85
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    I could see the Brewers trading Gomez. Depending on what happens with Josh Hamilton. Not saying we'll get him, but if we do, I would say Gomez would be on his way out. Maybe Hart. If we trade anybody significant it will be an outfielder, we need pitching, and have the most depth in the OF. Logan Shafer is gonna get his shot this spring, that would also have an effect on weather or not we see a trade.
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  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldStyleCubbies View Post
    LOL. Don't think so.
    2012
    Feldman - 123.2 IP, 6.99 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 5.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 89 ERA+, 2.3 fWAR, 0.0 rWAR

    Lewis - 105 IP, 7.97 K/9, 1.20 BB/9, 3.43 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 133 ERA+, 2.1 fWAR, 2.0 rWAR

    Shark - 174.2 IP, 9.27 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.03BB/9, 3.81 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 103 ERA+, 3.3 fWAR, 1.6 rWAR


    How is Shark a significant upgrade over Feldman and Lewis?

    They are all basically on par with each other.

  12. #87
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    Gomez is actually a decent player given his D, speed, and some power package. I would definitely be interested in what that nets the Brewers if he was out there.

    I might be more inclined to trade Hart than Gomez actually...

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    2012
    Feldman - 123.2 IP, 6.99 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 5.09 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.87 xFIP, 89 ERA+, 2.3 fWAR, 0.0 rWAR

    Lewis - 105 IP, 7.97 K/9, 1.20 BB/9, 3.43 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 133 ERA+, 2.1 fWAR, 2.0 rWAR

    Shark - 174.2 IP, 9.27 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 1.03BB/9, 3.81 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.38 xFIP, 103 ERA+, 3.3 fWAR, 1.6 rWAR


    How is Shark a significant upgrade over Feldman and Lewis?

    They are all basically on par with each other.
    Notice the full fWAR advantage, the half a run advantage in xFIP, the .25+ advantage in FIP, the Ks, the innings pitched, the 2-5 year age advantage Samardzija holds, the 3+ MPH advantage...but yeah besides that, theyre basically on par. I mean, a rope bridge is basically equal to London bridge - theyre both bridges right?
    Last edited by SenorGato; 11-01-2012 at 06:23 PM.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Gomez is actually a decent player given his D, speed, and some power package. I would definitely be interested in what that nets the Brewers if he was out there.

    I might be more inclined to trade Hart than Gomez actually...
    In my eyes, Gomez is underrated. He has never been an everyday starter. If he goes to a team that needs an everyday CF, i think he could do some damage. I wouldnt, just because Hart can play 1B. Having four outfielders on a roster and one of them being able to play 1B gives you a lot of flexibility and opportunities as far as off days, and injuries.
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  15. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    You realize that 3.38 xFIP is more than HALF A RUN lower? That 3.3 WAR is more than HALF A WIN better than the average? That 9.27 is TWO strikeouts higher than average...This is SLIGHT? 3.55 is almost half a run lower than the average FIP? Jesus...This is why numbers being in the hands of anyone who knows FanGraphs exists scares me btw - it still comes down to how you write about it and spin it.

    Slight lol...Half a run is the difference between David Price and Jon Neise in xFIP. .6 WAR is the difference between Cole Hamels and Matt Harrison (well, actually .7). 2 strikeouts the difference between Justin Verlander and Trevor Cahill. These are not slight in anything but your spin.

    As for an example...Dont care, I refuse to play your game on this. Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson netted top 50 prospect and another prospect turned major leaguer - there was no precedent for such a deal. Hell, theres more precedent for Samardzija netting some damn good prospects (Pineda for Montero, a top 10 prospect in the game, Garza for Archer/Lee/three others) than there was for that deal, which Im sure you would have told me were impossible at the time.

    More numbers:

    Samardzijas xFIP ranked 13th in all of baseball.
    His FIP ranked 26th in baseball.
    As stated earlier: 2nd hardest fastball velocity in baseball.
    4th highest K rate in baseball.

    But hey...you insist thats slightly above average. What could beat that?
    and he was 104th in rWAR and 293rd in ERA+ (74th among starters) and 73rd among starters in HR/9

    and there are only 88 qualifying starters (by Fangraphs rankings)

    Put those numbers in percentage form
    27th in FIP (30.6 percentile)
    14th in xFIP (15.9 percentile)
    30th in fWAR (34.1 percentile)
    48th in ERA (54.5 percentile)
    30th in the NL in ERA (out of 46 - 65.2 percentile)

    Especially when you league adjust, he is barely above league average.

    He is of near equal value of Lance Lynn, except he is 2 years older and has 3 less years of team control
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 11-01-2012 at 06:30 PM.

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