Our Record is 18-26: Are We Making the Playoffs?

[sixer04fan]

Just made this point in the game thread, but I figured I'd parlay into a new thread to get people's views. I think we will make the playoffs, but it's going to be tough. Here are my thoughts:

Unless Boston blows it up (trades away KG and/or Pierce, Terry, etc.) I still see them as a .500 team. I believe that Milwaukee has been playing solid and can finish at least at the .500 mark too. So I figure that we need to be around .500 to be in the discussion for 8th seed at least.

So let's do some math here... We're 8 games under .500 (18-26), with 38 games to go. The "goal" is to finish 41-41 to be in playoff contention.

To get there (41-41) we have to finish 23-15, that's a .605 winning clip. There are currently only three teams in the East with a .605 or better winning percentage (Heat, Knicks, and Bulls). It's going to be tough to get to that point, especially since Bynum is still out for 7-8 more games. We have to start winning now, or it's going to be too late very soon.

We have the Wiz, Kings, Magic, Pacers, Bobcats up next. I think we need to win at least 4 of the 5. This stretch before the break is pretty much our season right here, barring Boston blowing up their roster or a collapse from Milwaukee.

So what do you think? We're 8 games below .500, and would have to finish 23-15 just to get back to .500. Not that we have to be .500 to make the playoffs, but I think that's a good measuring stick for a typical 8th seed. Who knows, maybe we'd to be better than .500 to make the playoffs. And at best, Bynum is missing about 7 more games. But we have a very winnable stretch of games coming up to get us off to a good start on that quest for a 23-15 finish.

Are the Sixers making the playoffs?

[bholly]

Voted yes on the balance of probabilities, but it's certainly not a lock by any means.

The worst bit is that it's likely going to be close and 12 of our last 16 are on the road, so there's a real good good chance we get right up to, or even above, the 8th seed and then fall back late, which is the most painful way to go.

[bholly]

Worth noting that we're 2-1 against Boston and have a home game left, so there's a decent chance we win the tiebreaker against them.
In the off chance it comes down to it, we're 0-2 vs Milwaukee with a home and a road game remaining, 1-1 vs Detroit with a road game remaining, and 3-1 vs Toronto.

I guess at some point in Feb, assuming it's still a close enough race, I'll do the playoff chase and tiebreakers thread I did the last couple of year.

[sixer04fan]

I guess at some point in Feb, assuming it's still a close enough race, I'll do the playoff chase and tiebreakers thread I did the last couple of year.

Nice. Sounds like a sticky to me. Hopefully we're still in the race at that point.

[ryguy553]

Do you really think Boston will finish at or above .500? They are below .500 right now. I see no way that team without Rondo will play above a 500 clip the rest of the season.

[bholly]

Yeah, if I had to guess I'd put them finishing at somewhere like 36 wins, which would mean .500 ball from here on would get us in - that was part of why I voted yes.

Still, I think .500 is a good starting point for asking the question. That's the point where we'll be right in the conversation even if Boston surprise.

[sixer04fan]

Do you really think Boston will finish at or above .500? They are below .500 right now. I see no way that team without Rondo will play above a 500 clip the rest of the season.

I guess I still see them, with KG, Pierce, the depth that they have, and Doc at the helm, they still can fight their way to a .500 record at the end of the season, or at least around there. I don't think they're just going to roll over and die that easily. And for the purposes of the discussion, I do think .500 is a good target benchmark in general when talking about an 8th seed.

[bholly]

I don't think it's politically correct to say 'roll over and die' when talking about the elderly, man.

[Justsomeguy76]

Despite my better judgement, I voted yes because I really want to see this team in the playoffs with Bynum. I think we have the capability to get there if Boston fumbles without Rondo and we play like we have the last two games, but I'm not sold on that yet. A lot depends on the next two to three weeks before the break. If we draw even or within a game of Boston, I think we have a decent shot. If we are still 2.5 games back or below, I don't think so.

That ending road stretch could be a killer.

[bholly]

For what it's worth, Boston are -1.9 per 48 minutes with Rondo, and -0.1 without him. Who knows, maybe they will actually be better without his constant focus on his stats. If they could get Lowry this could end up being a blessing for them.

Last year they were +4.8 per 48 minutes with him and -1.2 without, and the year before it was +8.3 with and +0.1 without, so maybe this year is just an anomaly.

[EvanTurner]

Yup, when bynum comes back well lose, probaby 5-8 games rest of the way

[EvanTurner]

For what it's worth, Boston are -1.9 per 48 minutes with Rondo, and -0.1 without him. Who knows, maybe they will actually be better without his constant focus on his stats. If they could get Lowry this could end up being a blessing for them.

Last year they were +4.8 per 48 minutes with him and -1.2 without, and the year before it was +8.3 with and +0.1 without, so maybe this year is just an anomaly.

I dont know where they come up with these numbers but doc rivers face gave off pure OH **** when he soke about
Losing rondo. What pieces do they have to trade for a rondo type pg? Losing rondo is huge, despite these little percentages that dont really matter. Pierce knees are buckling every other night, there main guys are just too old to work as hard as there goina have to work for shots now.

[EvanTurner]

Do you really think Boston will finish at or above .500? They are below .500 right now. I see no way that team without Rondo will play above a 500 clip the rest of the season.

THIS! they arebt that good anymore with rondo, and now there goina be better without him with the old guys shots cgetting harder and harder? Please

[bholly]

I dont know where they come up with these numbers but doc rivers face gave off pure OH **** when he soke about
Losing rondo. What pieces do they have to trade for a rondo type pg? Losing rondo is huge, despite these little percentages that dont really matter. Pierce knees are buckling every other night, there main guys are just too old to work as hard as there goina have to work for shots now.

It's +/-. If you score 10 more points than your opponents then you're +10. If you score 15 less than your opponents you're -15.

The particular numbers I gave are the Celtics' +/- per 48 minutes when Rondo is and isn't on the floor.

[sixer04fan]

They can still put up a fight at least. They're still at least mediocre on paper with KG, Pierce, Jeff Green, Bradley, Terry, Sullinger, etc., they have a very good coach who gets the most out of his guys when it counts and when people count them out, they have great experience and veteran leadership, and they play tough defense. And they might even be better off on defense with Rondo out now. That's about all you need to be a .500 team in the East.

We're 8 games under .500. We still have a long way to go. I think we can do it, I voted Yes on the poll. And I think we're starting to turn a corner already. And we have the best center in the conference potentially coming back very soon. I'm just saying its going to be tough. We have to show drastic improvement in our record, and soon. The teams ahead of us probably aren't just going to suddenly drop dead like you think they are. We're going to have to keep playing better and earn it, and potentially have to play at a winning percentage that only 3 other teams in the conference are playing at right now.

Again, not arguing with those who also think we're making the playoffs. I agree with you on that. I'm just saying we've put ourselves ina tough hole and it might be difficult. It's certainly not a guarantee like EvanTurner thinks it is.