Would you trust a blind scout? Of course you wouldn't but that's what you do when you only use stats.
WAR is fact
Pythagorean records and win expectancy have value
Strikeouts are overrated
Best regular season record = best team
Regular season > Post season
For the record I also think you are underestimating Shoppach's offensive ability. From 2009-2011 AJ had a wRC+ of 88 and Shoppach's was 87. Now Laird is a very valid point as his was only 62. Shoppach has a huge K problem which makes him far from an ideal addition but there is reason to believe that his offense wouldn't be hugely worse than AJ and would be far better than what we got from Barajas this season.
Still for the right price an all AJ battery on opening day would be great.
Twins fan here, I think I remember Span's name coming up around the deadline in some of the Pirates speculation to get a top of the order guy to hit in front of McCutchen and Alvarez etc. With that being said, who would you guys see as possible chips to move for Span? Obviously the Twins need pitching badly, but Taillon and Cole would be out of the question for sure. Im not sure where that leaves the two teams as being a match however. Names like Marte, Hansen, Polanco sound nice, but they are all position players, and Marte is the only close to contributing. James McDonald seems like a piece that could match up, but I think the Twins would want a bit more than that. Prospects like McPherson, Locke, Owens, Morris, Wilson just don't have the upside to be a centerpiece, but would make good secondary pieces... Is there anything that you guys see? This is something that I just threw together on the spot.
MIN gets: Alen Hanson, Kyle McPherson
PIT gets: Denard Span
McPherson would fit into the Twins 2012 rotation and could be a nice #3/4 starter for a while. Meanwhile Hanson would give the Twins a very exciting infield in 2014 with Sano at 3rd and Eddie Rosario at 2nd... Perhaps by shedding a few more million from Span's salary the Twins could look to put that money towards a bigger named free agent pitcher, or maybe sign two pitchers. Adding a big name starter or 2 average starters and McPherson would improve the Twins rotation quite a bit in my opinion.
Meanwhile Span would fit well in left field in Pittsburgh. He plays a good defensive center field, but his arm might even play better in left. He would be a near perfect fit atop the Pirates lineup and his contract is very team friendly for a player of his caliber and age. An outfield of Span, McCutchen, Marte would be very exciting to watch both offensively an defensively for a while in Pittsburgh.
Also on a completely different, unrealistic, fantasy note. Would you guys be happy with a trade like this?
MIA gets: Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte, Jose Tabata
PIT gets: Mike Stanton
Last edited by trevhipp7; 11-14-2012 at 11:08 PM.
You mentioned McDonald and I think he would make more sense as a center piece for Span (from the Pirates perspective) if the Twins had interest in him. He wouldn't be enough in his own right of course but I think coupled with one of our second tier pitching prospects (McPherson, Clay Holmes, Tyler Glasnow or Nicholas Kingham) and a lesser hitting prospect (say Gift Ngoepe or Willy Garcia) depending on what the Twins are looking for could work.
I've heard a lot of speculation about Stanton. My thought has been that any trade for him would need to start with the foundation of 1 of Cole/Taillon and 1 of Polanco/Bell/Hanson. A third good prospect (outside of the Pirates top 6 but probably in their top 15) would also need to be included. I figured that would be a good starting point. Including Marte instead of say Polanco is another possible way to go that I haven't really considered. Tabata's value is irrelevant in a trade of this magnitude so essentially its Marte and Cole for Stanton. My initial reaction is no but that is because I have a special attachment to our 4 (now 3) big arms and want to see it rode out but for a player like Stanton it is intriguing. I would still probably pass though, not because the value is well off but because I believe that for the Pirates to ever be truly competitive they need to develop their own legitimate ace and Cole seems like the best chance of that happening anytime soon.Also on a completely different, unrealistic, fantasy note. Would you guys be happy with a trade like this?
MIA gets: Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte, Jose Tabata
PIT gets: Mike Stanton
Its been a while since something was posted so I thought I'd post the only loose rumor I've heard and that is the Pirates possibly being interested in Brandon McCarthy. It would be great to get him for the rotation but until we get something firmer I'm not putting too much stock into it.
Looking for some feedback on something i've been thinking about. Huntington has to realize that if things don't start out well this coming season, he could very well be out of a job. I understand not trading the farm unless it makes sense but if he doesn't do something, he isn't going to be around to see Cole, Taillon, Hansen, etc, in a Pirate uniform.
I feel that this franchise needs to do something different to succeed and that means taking a chance and trading away a Taillon or some other blue chip prospect. Due to the economics of the game right now i feel we have small windows to make a run. We need to draft well then have some of those drafted be legit major leaguers and trade other prospects and make a run. Maybe take on a contract through a trade and hope that we hit it right with the young guys and add in the legit major leaguer we acquired and see what happens. Then repeat the process.
An example of this would be take our top 6 prospects, keep 3 when they are ready, trade 3 for legit, established major league ballplayers, add that mix with Cutch, Alvarez, Walker, etc... and see what happens. We know the time will come when the acquired guys go to free agency and Cutch, Alvarez, and Walker will all get too expensive and will move on but we take our shot and when everyone leaves and we start losing we draft high and get some blue chip prospects and continue the process. I think we can live with taking a shot for 2 years and hoping we make a playoff run then re-load for 5 years and make another run. Make sense?
As far as Wandy I can get your poin there but dealing a prospect like Robbie Grossman for a nice dependable middle of the rotation lefty who you control for 2.5 years isn't a bad thing. However for the most part I agree with the rest that adding a solid free agent is probably the best way to go but Jason Bay? I think the Pirates could likely find better alternatives. A strong push for Napoli or a pitcher like Brandon McCarthy should have a greater impact that Bay.
Just an FYI tomorrow I believe is the deadline to set the 40 man rosters in advance of the RUle V draft. The Pirates have plenty of openings so no releases should be coming but expect a few players to be added. Phillip Irwin, Victor Black and Tony Sanchez seem like pretty much no brainers but Gift Ngoepe (who may not actually be eligible), Ramon Cabrera and even the surging Kyle Kaminska are ones on the borderline.
Update: The deadline is indeed tomorrow should be interesting to see if anyone besides the obvious 3 are added.
Last edited by burgh_fan66; 11-19-2012 at 12:24 PM.
The Pirates signed Felix Pie to a minor league contract. More OF depth for AAA.
Liek I stated earlier the Pirates will be adding players to the 40 man roster today to protect them from the Rule V draft. They have 6 openings on their 40 man roster but I don't expect that many to be added.
Phillip Irwin, Tony Sanchez and Victor Black all seem like obvious adds as I suspect if any of the 3 were left unprotected they would be selected.
The rest of the group is a bunch of borderline candidates to be selected who have varying degrees of upside. I thought I'd go over the best of that bunch.
Gift Ngoepe - There are conflicting reports wether he is eligible or not. Assuming he is there is a chance he would be selected as his glove work is good enough to hold down a bench job right now and his bat while not developed at all still holds some potential due to his unique situation.
Ramon Cabrera - A good offensive prospect at catcher but typically catchers aren't selected in the Rule V draft as they are not easily hidden. If they are teams prefer to select defensive oriented catchers who can at least provide that from a backup and Cabrera isn't that.
Carlos Paulino - I don't think he is likely to be selected but he has the good defense usually associated with catchers who are Rule V picks and his bat does have some upside as shown but his 2011 campaign.
Jarek Cunningham - Good power potential from a middle infielder makes him an intriguin choice but injury concerns, defensive ability and a horrible showing in AA makes it unlikely he would be selected and less likely he would be kept
Jeff Inman - Live arm reliever who can crank his fastball up into the high 90s. His type seem to be amongst the most common Rule V selections because of his good arm and the relative ease of being able to hide him in the bullpen. Still poor performance makes his selection unlikely
Nathan Baker - Upper level left handed pitcher who showed a bit of success when he went to the bullpen at AA this season. Left handed relievers are another popular choice because teams can generally hide them as a LOOGY. Probably won't be added to the roster but I see a decent chance of him being selected.
Andrew Lambo - He was eligble last season and wasn't selected and although he did well this past season he didn't play much due to injury. Not much has really changed with Lambo so if teams passed on him last year they will probably do the same this year.
Eric Avila - Also eligible last year but not selected. He has some good power potential but is likely too far away from being ready for the majors to be a realistic selection by anyone
Hunter Strickland - Like Inman, Strickland has a good live arm but unlike him he doesn't come with the prospect reputation or the decent results. Probably won't be selected but I see a better than 0 chance that he is added today. He too was passed on last season but he is now healthy so things may be slightly different
Kyle Kaminska - He seems to be turning some heads in the AFL. The Pirates thought enough of him to acquire him from the Marlins so its possble they might think enough of him to protect him. Also the good results in the AFL make him a possible selection.
Quincy Latimore - Pirates are known to be high on Latimore and he has a ton of raw power. He is coming off a decent AA season but outside of the power he is probably too raw to stick on a major league roster. He was passed on last season and really little has changed.
Tim Alderson - The potential is still there but at some point you need results and they haven't come with enough consistentcy. He was eligble last season and not selected and little has changed.
So of that group listed I think Ngoepe, Cabrera, Inman, Strickland, Baker and Kaminska are all possibilities for the Pirates to add to the roster. Strickland probably wouldn't be selected but the Pirates always seem to make one odd protection every year. I see Cabrera and for that matter Paulino as unlikely selections largely because they are catchers and that is rarely done. Ngoepe is an interesting case as he might be selected and has a reasonable chance of being a solid major leaguer but yet if added the Pirates would have to use at least 2 and quite possibly all 3 of his options before he was ready for the majors. Hopefully he is not eligible this season. That leaves Inman, Baker and Kaminska as the ones I see as the most likely to be selected. My guess is the Pirates add one of those 3 though I'm not really sure which one. My gut tells me it will be Kaminska though and I also think they will likely have Baker selected if he is left unprotected but like Adcock and Lorin that is not really a major loss.
So my prediction is we will see Sanchez, Irwin, Black and one more player added. I'm leaning towards it being Kaminska or Ngoepe (if eligible) but it could really go a lot of ways including another catcher (Cabrera or maybe even Paulino) or more likely in my mind a different pitcher.
Jeremy Guthrie just got 3yrs 25mil from the Royals. The Royals certainly didn't do us any favors setting the market for a lower tier starting pitcher, just like the Dodgers signing of Brandon League hurt our chances of resigning Grilli with that ridiculous deal.