2013 Offseason Discussion

[lolPhillies]

http://www.ibtimes.com/sportsnet/san...-sabeans-plans

Dominic Jimenez-

The San Francisco Giants have completed their improbable playoff run with the ultimate prize: a World Series Title. After a period of 56 years without a championship, the Giants now have two titles in three years. While the city of San Francisco and its fans are still celebrating, it is already time to start looking towards next season and where this Giants team is headed.

Free Agents:

The Giants have ten players who are scheduled to become free agents. Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan, Marco Scutaro, Jeremy Affeldt, Clay Hensley, Xavier Nady, Brad Penny, Freddy Sanchez, and Ryan Theriot will all be unrestricted free agents. The Giants will more than likely re-sign Pagan, Scutaro, and Affeldt. All three of these men had more than solid seasons this year, and all had key roles in their World Series run. Each will likely garner multi-year deals, with Pagan's likely to be the longest and worth the most. Something along the lines of a 3-year, 16-20 million dollar range sounds right. Expect Scutaro and Affeldt to sign two-year deals. Scutaro will be a tricky one, given his age (37). Despite his phenomenal play in a San Francisco uniform, there is reason to believe Scutaro won't be able to repeat his play next year. General Manager Brian Sabean can't give another aging veteran too big of a contract (Edgar Renteria and company).

The most interesting of the bunch is Melky Cabrera. Prior to his 50-game suspension for use of performance-enhancing drugs, he was leading the National League in hitting, was the All-Star Game MVP, and a leading candidate for regular season MVP. There is no denying that Cabrera’s success over the first half of the year was a key factor in getting the Giants to the playoffs. He lied to the Giants about the positive test, then fabricated a story involving a phony website that offered the product that caused the positive test. It’s within reason to think he could be back next year on a one-year, $4 million dollar ballpark deal. But it all comes down to his relationship with the club, something only they know.

The rest of the free agents are question marks. It looks like the Giants liked Hensley out of the bullpen, so he should be back. It's hard to expect Mota, Nady, and Penny back. Sanchez might be signed to a one-year deal, but that is all dependent on his shoulder's health. And Theriot will probably be back in a backup infielder capacity.

Arbitration Players: Emmanuel Burriss, Santiago Casilla, Tim Lincecum, Jose Mijares, Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Sergio Romo, Pablo Sandoval, Eli Whiteside, and Brian Wilson.

Sandoval and Lincecum signed extensions last season so won't be going to arbitration this year. Look for big paydays coming for Romo, Casilla, and Posey. Pence was already making $10 million+, so his salary shouldn't budge much. Romo made $1.5 million this year. After a dominant regular season and then near-flawless postseason, Romo's salary might end up near $4 or $5 million. Casilla made $2.2 million this season, accumulating 25 saves while helping fill in for Brian Wilson. With a 2.22 ERA with the Giants, look for Casilla's salary to bump up to near $4 million. And then there's the likely NL MVP Posey. Making just $615 thousand dollars, a HUGE payday is in his future. He was the unquestioned leader of this team and offense, and had a monster season. When this year's arbitration is over, Posey's salary could easily be around $10-$13 million. Burriss and Whiteside didn't do much of anything this year and spent a lot of time in AAA. Their respective salaries should remain the same. Mijares pitched well, so he'll get a minor salary bump.

Then there is Brian Wilson. Wilson isn't a free agent until after the 2013 season. But the Giants should start figuring out what they plan on doing with him now. He missed 99 percent of the season after undergoing 'Tommy John' surgery, but is expected to be ready for next season. With that said, Wilson will command a sizeable salary as a free agent, and the Giants must decide if they'll commit at least ten million dollars per year to retain their closer long term. What makes the decision all the more difficult is the way the bullpen was able to step-in and replace his production (the team had over 50 saves this season). Bullpen by committee is a formula that rarely works, but when you're a team with a bunch of very solid arms, it can actually be used to a team's advantage. The closer position is a vastly overrated position, and things did not work out well the last time the Giants spent a lot of money on a closer (see Armando Benitez). Now with that said, it would be ill advised for the Giants to allocate a large sum of money on a closer who is incredibly shaky at times and has a history of injuries. A smaller contract would best suit the Giants, it would just be a matter of Wilson wants to stay in SF or go to where the money is. With the emergence of cheaper options like Casilla and Romo, Wilson may have closed his last game as a Giant.

Free Agent Market:

The Giants will be linked to guys like Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn, but Sabean needs to err on the side of caution with free agent signings. That area seems to be his only real weak-link as a GM. If he pursues a top-tier hitter, he cannot afford to sign them to too long of a deal. While a guy like Hamilton or Bourn would undoubtedly bolster the Giant’s lineup and defense, don’t expect any big signings. After the 2010 championship, Sabean made sure to put his attention into signing his free agents. Since Sabean has plenty of “in-house” signing to take care of, the Giants should have a relatively quiet offseason as they gear towards yet another title in 2013.

Dynasty is a word thrown around all of the time by sports media. But two titles in three years is definitely something worth discussing. They won this year just like they did in 2010: with phenomenal pitching, timely hitting, and catching most conceivable breaks. The lineup should maintain, the rotation and bullpen will be the same, and expectations will remain high. This team was built to a long-term contender. As Market Street hosts another championship parade, there’s reason to believe it could happen again next season. With a stellar nucleus, this team is built to win again. 2013 might not be their year, but expect more titles to land in San Francisco in the near future.

[SFrush90]

BR has us sending Wilson to the Yankees lol.

for what?

[lolPhillies]

for what?

I didn't click the link it was a headline or something, I was just glancing at the latest Giants hits lol.

[Giants-49ers-Ws]

The #1 priority needs to be resigning Affeldt, obviously going any higher than $7 million annually is nonsense but we can offer him a 3-year contract with a 4th year option...

The main reason for our two championship trophies is the pitching top to bottom...

The very close #2 priority is getting Scutaro resigned, he's extremely invaluable both on the field & in the clubhouse...(resign Theriot as well to backup)

After that I trust the FO to figure out the OF situation...

Personally, I'd probably let Pagan walk; he's going to command more than he's worth... yes he was a big part of WS championship but he's too streaky to be paid like a highly above average player

of the elite FA's, Nick Swisher is the one that intrigues for he'd bring consistent power & OBP & would be a great fit in clubhouse...

other FA's (non big names) to keep an eye on: Juan Pierre (he could start in LF & leadoff; could be replaced late in game by Blanco for defensive purposes), Shane Victorino (would be great to have if he'd accept a part-time role against lefties, though highly unlikely)...If we go the older route, Torii Hunter & Ichiro Suzuki could both fill LF nicely on potential one-year deals

On the trade front, a couple names that pop to mind are Shin Soo Choo & Denard Span, of whom could fill LF & CF respectively...there are other likely acquirable options as well for the outfield....If we do end up going the trade route our best trade chips include Santiago Casilla (due to for a pay raise plus with Wilson working way back & Hembree/Brett Bochy in the wings), Hector Sanchez (capable MLB starting C), Francisco Peguero, Jose Mijares, one of the young SP prospects...

[sfgiants5518]

I honestly doubt we sign Affeldt, we'll more than likely just retain Choate or go with King Paco

I bet you doubted that you'd sign Uribe.

[Giants-49ers-Ws]

1 *_____ (CF/LF)
2 *Scutaro (2B)
3 Posey (C)
4 Sandoval (3B)
5 Pence (RF)
6 *_____ (LF/CF)
7 Belt (1B)
8 Crawford (SS)

Bench: Blanco (OF), *_____ (1B/OF), *Theriot (IF), Arias (IF), H. Sanchez (C)

SP: Cain, Bumgarner (L), Vogelsong, Lincecum, Zito (L)

Pen: Romo-CL, *Affeldt (L), *Wilson (declined arb & resigned), Casilla, Lopez (L), Kontos, *_____ (Long Reliever)

[LASportsFan1996]

I bet you doubted that you'd sign Uribe.

If that guy was in my presence right now, I'd knock him the **** out

[LASportsFan1996]

Pen: Romo-CL, *Affeldt (L), *Wilson (declined arb & resigned), Casilla, Lopez (L), Kontos, *_____ (Long Reliever)

Wilson wouldn't close?

[Sweetleaf]

Lincecum's going back into the rotation.

And that highlights the problem. It's not a matter of intentions, as the results can end that move very abruptly, and they quickly find themselves back where they are now. Reghetti and Gardner proved they had zero control over Timmy for the entire year. Zero, as in none! His success as a reliever wasn't constructed, but more of a stroke of luck by the grace of the ball gods. They had run out of options and really had no idea what else to do with him. I think we all know that throwing him back into rotation offers very little in the way of any kind of guarentee, if it even happens at all.

I think Tim's play in the WS may have redeemed some of whatever value he carried into the 2012 season. From a business perspective, see what his market value is now, because next year might not be so kind. Of course this whole post is moot, with an expected 22 mil payout this coming year, I imagine no one would even give him the time of day, let alone give up something for him.

If Rags and Gardner cannot get control of him this winter, there will be no starting rotation, period. That I can see. I think there is a strong contingency that points to Timmy becoming a full time bullpenner. The question, in keeping with the current discussion, is how does that effect any possible deal with Affeldt? I think it may strengthen his chances as an early out for Timmy

[spliff(TONE)]

Haha! Yeah, I'm pretty old...

This might not be the most popular subject, but what to do with Lincecum??? All, Affeldts aside (ahem..)

I mean, he's like the white elephant and nobody's lookin' at him...

Don't know if you are older than me (don't matter much regardless), but I'm a big Sabbath fan too.

Lincecum? I think he'll have every chance in the world to right his ship in 2013. Management and players seem to love him and it's obvious the fans are nuts about him. I doubt he'll ever be the Lincecum we saw win consecutive Cy Young Awards, but I fully believe he can still be a very strong starting pitcher.

[sfgiants5518]

Giants are probably hoping that Lincecum re-dedicates himself in the offseason.. both to his conditioning and his mechanics. Maybe if he comes in better shape, and he fixes his impossible mechanics, we'll see more 93's than 89's.

[spliff(TONE)]

But Affeldt isn't a LOOGY.

Well....replace LOOGY's with "left handed relievers" and my point remains the same. It was a recurring joke on this site throughout the season.

[SFrush90]

And that highlights the problem. It's not a matter of intentions, as the results can end that move very abruptly, and they quickly find themselves back where they are now. Reghetti and Gardner proved they had zero control over Timmy for the entire year. Zero, as in none! His success as a reliever wasn't constructed, but more of a stroke of luck by the grace of the ball gods. They had run out of options and really had no idea what else to do with him. I think we all know that throwing him back into rotation offers very little in the way of any kind of guarentee, if it even happens at all.

I think Tim's play in the WS may have redeemed some of whatever value he carried into the 2012 season. From a business perspective, see what his market value is now, because next year might not be so kind. Of course this whole post is moot, with an expected 22 mil payout this coming year, I imagine no one would even give him the time of day, let alone give up something for him.

If Rags and Gardner cannot get control of him this winter, there will be no starting rotation, period. That I can see. I think there is a strong contingency that points to Timmy becoming a full time bullpenner. The question, in keeping with the current discussion, is how does that effect any possible deal with Affeldt? I think it may strengthen his chances as an early out for Timmy

Lincecum will not start the season in the bullpen next year. Lincecum's and Affeldt's situation will have no effect on each other. I'm 100% positive about that.

[Sweetleaf]

Well, just so there is no confusion.. I'm pullin' for Timmy. A full recovery in 2013 would be a dream season. But there is a part of me that would be ok with letting his mechanics become someone else's headache for a while.

And I think the ONLY way he gets a start next season is if Raghetti and Gardner agree to it. If they cannot gain complete 100% confidence in Timmy this winter, it won't happen. The same exact formula that got Bumgarner the start in game 2.

Saying that Lincecum is guarenteed a spot in the starting line up next year is the same as saying Rags and Gardner will have complete and unconditional confidence in Tims abilities by then. Hope you are right, of course, but not sure I'd put my paycheck on it

But, I do hear ya. At 22mil, I would be tempted to just throw him in as well.. I hope it don't go like that

[SFrush90]

He's just had one bad year and will be making 22M next season, I don't think they'll send him to the bullpen to start the year. Who knows, maybe if he continues to struggle during the season, but they'll for sure allow him some time at the beginning of the year to set things straight.