On a positive note for Waiters.. I did enjoy seeing him throw down a few dunks.
From Cavs the Blog:
Based on data available at hoopdata.com, through November 12 games, there are 62 shooting guards averaging ten or more minutes per game. Of those, Dion:
Making 50% at the rim against OKC
Takes the thirteenth most shots at the rim per forty minutes (4.5). Of all shooting guards who have made more than one such shot, he has been assisted on the fourth lowest percentage. He gets the ball to the basket. Unfortunately though, he converts a poor 50%, approximately 15% below NBA average this season. Kyrie struggled similarly early last season, and that turned out allright, so hopefully this tide also shifts for Waiters.
He jacks the nineteenth highest number of long-twos per forty (4.3), while nailing a robust 48%. This is 10% higher than current league average for SGs. These are the least efficient shots in the game, and ideally Dion learns this and quits showing a propensity for them.
From three, he hoists frequently (6.5 per 40, 19th for SGs), and makes them at a ridiculous rate of 53%.
He is only shooting 0.18 free throws per field goal attempt. This is below average for a shooting guard. His foul shooting of 60% sits well under the 75% from his two collegiate seasons.
Clearly the shooting from deep is unsustainable, but if everything else also ‘normalizes’, how does his production look for the first seven games? Well…
For a guy attacking the basket reasonably often, I will assume his ability to draw fouls eventually regresses to the league-mean. If he also drained three-quarters of his freebies; that adds six points through his first seven games.
If his shooting at the rim was only slightly below league average for an SG (59% compared to 65%), he makes two more field goals. So, four more points.
If his shooting on long twos reduced to 43% (compared to 38% average), he only loses one bucket over the first two weeks.
The huge aberration is the three point shooting. If his shooting from deep approached his collegiate level of 37%, he makes five less to date, or a 15-point reduction.
By subtracting seven total points and adding five more free throw attempts to his current seasonal output; his true shooting calculates as 54.4% – exactly league average for a shooting guard. That would rank 23rd of the 62 players, while using a relatively high distribution of possessions (19th most).
For what it’s worth, this occurred against a tough schedule. The defensive ratings of the Cavs opponents to date are: 2nd, 5th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 16th, and 26th. The team already braved a west-coast road trip, yet maintains a non-horrid offense (20th of 30 teams). Softer defenses should be forthcoming.
Overall, it is very reasonable to expect Dion to regress, but if he finishes with league average true shooting, high-usage, and an assist-to-turnover ratio above one; I will be thrilled. Performance to that degree from a pair of 20-year-old guards exceeds all expectations.
I do hope Waiters takes his conditioning seriously, hires a nutritionist, etc. A sleek Dion, moving a split-second faster and jumping a hair higher would be awesome. Work on this, young man. Your body is your temple, and if you do this right, a long NBA career, two max-contracts, etc, can be yours.
Smoke 'em if you've got 'em
Enes Kanter - 14 min/g, 4.6 pts/g, 3.4 reb/g - TOO RISKY
Derrick Favors - 24.3 min/g, 9.7 pts/g, 7.4 reb/g - Nice player...but not at a need position
Paul Millsap - 32.6 min/g, 16.1 pts/g, 9.7 reb/g - Nice player...but also not at a need position (and only 3 years younger than Andy)
Al Jefferson - 33.1 min/g, 15.0 pts/g, 11.8 reb/g - Very nice player...only signed for this year, though...do you want to risk a rental player in return for Andy?
Anderson Varejao - 35.0 min/g, 15.9 pts/g, 13.7 reb/g - would need to get back something that is CAN'T miss...I don't see any combination of two players coming back from Utah as can't miss. Kanter and Millsap or Favors and Jefferson would not improve this team much...and Utah's draft picks would be late lottery or outside of the lottery (Charlotte, Detroit, New Orleans, Washington, Orlando, Cleveland, Toronto, Philadelphia, Portland all worse than Utah at this point...and I'm sure I'm leaving someone off).
Again...in order to trade a player with the ability and the influence on this team that Anderson Varejao has...you have to get a can't miss package back in return...which would mean that it would have to be young 18+ point scorer and a sure lottery pick (in the top 5).
Now IMO Utah might actually be a very good trade partner if they think they are ready to contend right now and next year with Jefferson leaving via FA where they think Andy can take his spot. I would love an Enes Kanter plus thier 1st round pick in 2013 (Golden States #1 pick that was traded to them which is only top 6 protected). I don't see the Jazz trading Favors as he is from most of what I have read their major building block with Heyward but I would be intrigued if they would move Kanter. More than likely not but if they believe they can contend in the next two years it might make sense to move the developmental player and a first for a guy that they know what they are getting. Kanter isn't risky IMO but instead just young still learning which most of this team is and he would fill a need if Andy is moved to go with Zeller/TT and Samuels/Leuer. This is all hypothetical of course but I would love a move like this. Everyone needs to realize that this team is still a whiles away from actually competing and when Andy is off the books in 2014/2015 that is when the team will most likely start or be a year into their run if they do get one. Or the Cavs can hold on to him and hope he doesn't continue to become injury prone, the team starts to gel next year and is ready to take the 8 or 7 seed.
Just like the Indians this offseason, this season the Cavs are going to be in the same conundrum wondering if they are ready to compete soon or if they need to rid themselves of the one trading piece they have in AV to make their future bright when they believe this youngsters will all hit their prime together.
Last edited by ottograham14; 11-15-2012 at 09:43 AM.
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/20...n-to-top-spot/4. Dion Waiters (Last Week: 2)
Dion continues to be up and down to the start his NBA career. There is no reason to panic, just as there was no reason to get too high after some impressive games early on. Some days will be better than others, but the outcome will ultimately be positive. My favorite stat Waiters has in his favor is that Waiters is a member of the best five man unit in the NBA. Let me reiterate.
THE LINEUP OF IRVING, WAITERS, GEE, THOMPSON, AND VAREJAO LEADS THE NBA IN +/-.
The Cavalier starters have outscored their opponents by 55 points when on the court together. That’s good for best in the league, with the Heat and Lakers’ starters tied for second, a full 22 points worse than the Cavs.
Dion is third among rookies in scoring (14.5 PPG) and fifth in efficiency (10.5). Back to back games with under 10 points, and shooting 3-16 in his last outing have fans in a mini panic, but patience will be the key with Dion. Sit back, enjoy the ride, and pray to god it stays on track.
Dion 7-32 in his last two games. Yikes!
Smoke 'em if you've got 'em
On a bright note though TT has shown some flashes of consistency over the weekend. I'll take the last two games out of him all year if he can continue that trend.