Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





View Poll Results: Verlander or Kershaw?

Voters
31. You may not vote on this poll
  • Justin Verlander

    15 48.39%
  • Clayton Kershaw

    16 51.61%
Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 35
  1. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    15,229
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Oh, and the NL scored about 900 more runs than the AL this year.
    Huh?

    The average NL team scored 683 runs this year and the average AL team scored 721 runs this year. How does that add up to 900 more runs for the NL? lol
    2014 Adopt-A-Lion: Golden Tate

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,073
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by FortDetroit View Post
    Huh?

    The average NL team scored 683 runs this year and the average AL team scored 721 runs this year. How does that add up to 900 more runs for the NL? lol
    two more teams in the NL


    But now the AL will have Houston, who scored 583.

    Would have made the averages
    AL - 711.4
    NL - 689.7

    Divided by game that is
    AL - 4.39
    NL - 4.26

    The leagues are much closer than you give them credit for.


    It's a little silly to say Kershaw has some huge advantage pitching in the NL.

    In fact, if we break this down by division, the AL Central is a crazy weak division, and you would notice an even closer disparity.


    The argument would be like giving David Price the AL Cy Young this year because he faced the AL East and better lineups this season than Verlander. And if you do league adjust, it is true.

    But it's a basically pointless argument, because there isn't enough of a difference to really make the case.


    Either way, Verlander wins this without having to resort to league adjustments.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    15,229
    vCash
    1500
    In his career (mostly AL batters) the #9 hitter has a .486 OPS against Verlander.
    In his career (most NL batters) the #9 hitter has a .293 OPS against Kershaw.

    Cumulative stats for all pitchers in the majors in this case are irrelevant. All it takes is one hit or walk by the #9 batter to extend an inning for an individual pitcher that could have easily been avoided with a 3-4 pitch strikeout of the pitcher. That one individual hit/walk isn't going to have a large impact on the pitcher's slash line against but causes the pitcher to throw more pitches and have to face another batter, both of which can lead to negative results.

    The pitchers who can most take advantage of facing a guy who can't hit, are great pitchers like Kershaw and Verlander. Huge advantage for Kershaw to get that 2-3 times a game and Verlander to never get that. That's not even taking into account pitches wasted against an actual #9 hitter versus a pitcher who swings at basically anything.

    Just look at how ridiculous Kershaw's SO/BB ratio is against the 9th batter (9.24) compared to Verlander (3.58). Come on. Just facing the pitcher in the 9th slot alone increases Kershaw's K%, decreases his BB% by a ridiculous amount. It's a huge advantage pitching in the NL and the ERA pitching leaders over the last 13 seasons prove it...and if I went back more seasons it would be the same story.
    2014 Adopt-A-Lion: Golden Tate

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    15,229
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    two more teams in the NL


    But now the AL will have Houston, who scored 583.

    Would have made the averages
    AL - 711.4
    NL - 689.7

    Divided by game that is
    AL - 4.39
    NL - 4.26

    The leagues are much closer than you give them credit for.


    It's a little silly to say Kershaw has some huge advantage pitching in the NL.

    In fact, if we break this down by division, the AL Central is a crazy weak division, and you would notice an even closer disparity.


    The argument would be like giving David Price the AL Cy Young this year because he faced the AL East and better lineups this season than Verlander. And if you do league adjust, it is true.

    But it's a basically pointless argument, because there isn't enough of a difference to really make the case.


    Either way, Verlander wins this without having to resort to league adjustments.
    Exactly, that should be taken into consideration. Price pitches in the AL East and Verlander pitches in the weak *** central. I hope voters take that into consideration when they vote...they damn well should. Just like when comparing pitchers in different leagues the competition they face should be taken into consideration, and part of that comparison is free strikeouts and outs every 9 batters.

    Sorry, no one is going to convince me that getting a free out or two isn't a big plus for a pitcher versus a pitcher who doesn't get a free out or two a game. Carry on.
    Last edited by FortDetroit; 10-24-2012 at 08:03 PM.
    2014 Adopt-A-Lion: Golden Tate

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    Illinois
    Posts
    8,853
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by FortDetroit View Post
    Tell me this Chris, do you think it's a huge coincidence that from 2000-2012, there has only been 1 season in which the AL had more pitchers than the NL among the top 20 in ERA?

    From 2000-2012, 61% of all pitchers (260 pitcher sample size) to finish in the top 20 of the league in ERA are from the NL. Is that another huge coincidence?
    If I told you the Giants offense is better than Detroit's because we scored 8 less runs than you without the aid of the DH, you'd be singing a different story.

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    15,229
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by giants73756 View Post
    If I told you the Giants offense is better than Detroit's because we scored 8 less runs than you without the aid of the DH, you'd be singing a different story.
    not really...the tigers O wasnt great this year and the giants play in a pitching park which supresses their numbers. i read they led the NL in scoring in away games by 40 runs. they probably are a better offense than detroit considering the black hole the tigers had at RF, DH, and 2B for most of the season.

    have no problem with someone saying that. tigers O is top heavy with bad depth.
    2014 Adopt-A-Lion: Golden Tate

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,073
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by FortDetroit View Post
    In his career (mostly AL batters) the #9 hitter has a .486 OPS against Verlander.
    In his career (most NL batters) the #9 hitter has a .293 OPS against Kershaw.
    In their respective careers

    The 2 hitter has posted a .589 OPS against Verlander
    The 2 hitter has posted a .680 OPS against Kershaw

    Meanwhile, the leadoff hitter
    Has a .712 OPS against Verlander
    and a .631 OPS against Kershaw

    The point is that it's overall fairly meaningless

    Also, weighing down those numbers are the 37 sac bunts against Kershaw, vs the 4 against Verlander

    Sac bunts hurt your OBP and Slugging, just not your batting average, so the OPS is being slammed down by it.




    Just look at how ridiculous Kershaw's SO/BB ratio is against the 9th batter (9.24) compared to Verlander (3.58). Come on. Just facing the pitcher in the 9th slot alone increases Kershaw's K%, decreases his BB% by a ridiculous amount. It's a huge advantage pitching in the NL and the ERA pitching leaders over the last 13 seasons prove it...and if I went back more seasons it would be the same story.
    Kershaw still has to execute the pitches.

    The league as a whole carries a .465 OPS against the 9 spot.

    And to top this off. I still don't know why you are arguing it. It is an advantage. It just isn't much of one. Of course it's easier for Kershaw to face opposing pitchers than for Verlander to face a weak hitting shortstop. But the point I am making is that it is minimal. It's so tiny that it's not even worth bringing up.

    It's that minimal.

    Let's remove Kershaw's opponent 9 hitters numbers this season against him
    and then let's remove Verlanders

    Verlander - 238.1 IP, 239 K, 60 BB, 3.98 K/BB
    Kershaw - 227.2 IP, 229 K, 63 BB, 3.63 K/BB

    After removal of the 9 spot
    Verlander - 215 IP, 214 K, 56 BB, 3.82 K/BB
    Kershaw - 203.1 IP, 193 K, 60 BB, 3.22 K/BB


    So their K/BB goes from being 91.2% apart to being 84.3% apart

    A difference.

    But the kicker.

    The difference in expected ERA
    Verlander - 3.06 turns into 3.18
    Kershaw - 2.53 turns into 2.80

    It helps, but it isn't that dramatic, which is all I have been arguing.

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Brea,CA
    Posts
    31,689
    vCash
    1500
    Kershaw
    Foam Party!

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,073
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by FortDetroit View Post
    Exactly, that should be taken into consideration. Price pitches in the AL East and Verlander pitches in the weak *** central. I hope voters take that into consideration when they vote...they damn well should. Just like when comparing pitchers in different leagues the competition they face should be taken into consideration, and part of that comparison is free strikeouts and outs every 9 batters.

    Sorry, no one is going to convince me that getting a free out or two isn't a big plus for a pitcher versus a pitcher who doesn't get a free out or two a game. Carry on.
    It should be taken into consideration, but the reality is that it isn't THAT much of a difference, and it isn't enough to really sway anything.

    Regardless, Verlander is the best pitcher in baseball, yes, even ahead of Kershaw. League and park adjusted or not. He is just the best.

    Just to add to this
    The 9 hitter:
    walks 5.3% of the time
    lays down a sac bunt 6.7% of the time
    Gets an extra base hit 3.9% of the time
    Gets a single 11.2% of the time
    And then adds a sac fly/hbp/dropped third strike etc an additional 1.2% of the time
    So it's not a 'free out' 28.3% of the time

    As opposed to in the AL where it's 30.6% of the time they are not a free out

    You have some misconceptions here.
    Last edited by Jeffy25; 10-24-2012 at 08:40 PM.

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    708
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball for two years now.
    Has he, though?

    Last 2 seasons:

    Kershaw (66 starts) - 6.98 INN/GS, 26.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, .61 HR/9, 2.40 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 2.71 tERA, 3.03 SIERA
    Verlander (67 starts) - 7.30 INN/GS, 25.4 K%, 6.1 BB%, .79 HR/9, 2.52 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 3.26 tERA, 3.13 SIERA

    So what makes you say that Verlander has been better? The numbers say Kershaw has been better.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    If I had to take one pitcher for 2013, I would take Verlander. Because he is a more dominating pitcher in a single game sample, and because he can eat innings like crazy. He is the best pitcher in baseball right now, much the way Roy Halladay was 12 months ago.
    I'm surprised to see you say this, Jeffy, as you're usually the one that preaches sample size and whatnot. Look at the samples of the last 2 and 3 years that I've provided, what points to Verlander actually being better? You say he's an innings-eater, the main argument that JV has over Kershaw, but he actually only averages about 1 more out per game than Kershaw, a pretty minimal advantage. Does that one extra out per game really make up for Kershaw striking out more batters, giving up less home runs and having significant advantages in ERA peripherals across the board?

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,073
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by iAugust View Post
    Has he, though?

    Last 2 seasons:

    Kershaw (66 starts) - 6.98 INN/GS, 26.3 K%, 6.5 BB%, .61 HR/9, 2.40 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 2.71 tERA, 3.03 SIERA
    Verlander (67 starts) - 7.30 INN/GS, 25.4 K%, 6.1 BB%, .79 HR/9, 2.52 ERA, 3.21 xFIP, 3.26 tERA, 3.13 SIERA

    So what makes you say that Verlander has been better? The numbers say Kershaw has been better.



    I'm surprised to see you say this, Jeffy, as you're usually the one that preaches sample size and whatnot. Look at the samples of the last 2 and 3 years that I've provided, what points to Verlander actually being better? You say he's an innings-eater, the main argument that JV has over Kershaw, but he actually only averages about 1 more out per game than Kershaw, a pretty minimal advantage. Does that one extra out per game really make up for Kershaw striking out more batters, giving up less home runs and having significant advantages in ERA peripherals across the board?
    a lot of Kershaws edge comes from his ballpark helping him out, especially ERA related and HR related.

    JV is the K/BB king at this point, and considering the things a pitcher can control, he has the edge. Plus Verlander has been doing this longer, and was better this season (although not as good as Kershaw in 2011)

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    708
    vCash
    1500
    Aren't xFIP and SIERA both park-adjusted? Kershaw still has the edge in those.

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    708
    vCash
    1500
    Also Cliff Lee is the true K/BB king

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Posts
    3,051
    vCash
    1500
    Kershaw, just because he is a Southpaw + is much younger.

  15. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    708
    vCash
    1500
    Also if you're going to use the AL/NL DH differences to make up for Verlander's deficiency in the ERA-based stats don't forget that Kershaw's innings are limited by being taken out of games prematurely by being pinch-hit for all the time. Two sides to that story
    Last edited by iAugust; 10-25-2012 at 11:10 AM.

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •