Justin Verlander vs. Clayton Kershaw

[iAugust]

It seems like it's nearly unanimous that Verlander is considered the best pitcher in baseball. I've thought so too. But I wanted to look at the numbers to see just how dominate he was yesterday and they surprised me

Over the last 3 seasons:

A: 98 GS, 665.1 IP, 25.9 K%, 7.4 BB%, 3.48 K/BB, .60 HR/9, .208 BAA, 2.56 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 2.79 tERA, 3.20 SIERA
B: 100 GS, 713.2 IP, 24.8 K%, 6.6 BB%, 3.77 K/BB, .72 HR/9, .210 BAA, 2.79 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 3.22 tERA, 3.24 SIERA

The numbers seem to suggest that player A is the more effective pitcher. Player A is Kershaw and B is Verlander. Verlander goes deeper into games (7.13 INN/GS to 6.78 INN/GS) but most of the peripherals actually favor Kershaw.

Also worth noting is that those 3 years are Verlander's 5th, 6th and 7th full seasons, right in the middle of his prime, while they're Kershaw's 2nd, 3rd and 4th full seasons and he is just now entering his prime.

Thoughts?

[Dodgerbluemmm24]

Verlander now, Kershaw going forward.

[CHRISDODGERS]

Kersh is THAT good.

[FortDetroit]

I wish Verlander could pitch in the JV league and get to face pitchers that kill rallies and help keep pitch counts down.

2012 vs. AL/ vs. NL:
Verlander - 2.84 ERA/1.62 ERA
Kershaw - 3.43 ERA/ 2.44 ERA

2011 vs. AL/ vs. NL:
Verlander - 2.58 ERA/0.75 ERA
Kershaw - 3.00 ERA/2.19 ERA

[CHRISDODGERS]

I wish Verlander could pitch in the JV league.

2012 vs. AL/ vs. NL:
Verlander - 2.84 ERA/1.62 ERA
Kershaw - 3.43 ERA/ 2.44 ERA

2011 vs. AL/ vs. NL:
Verlander - 2.58 ERA/0.75 ERA
Kershaw - 3.00 ERA/2.19 ERA

haha nice try. how many starts did Verlander and Kershaw have against the NL and AL respectively? 3 or 4? nice sample size.

[FortDetroit]

haha nice try. how many starts did Verlander and Kershaw have against the NL and AL respectively? 3 or 4? nice sample size.

you dont think facing a pitcher who cant hit vs facing a DH makes a difference? give me a break. one is a near automatic out that often kills rallies and helps keep pitch counts down.

[CHRISDODGERS]

5 starts for Verlander. 3 for Kershaw. If you think that makes Verlander better.... lol

[CHRISDODGERS]

you dont think facing a pitcher who cant hit vs facing a DH makes a difference? give me a break. one is a near automatic out that often kills rallies and helps keep pitch counts down.

I remember Jeffy posting the stats for both leagues and they were roughly similar. but like I just posted, a handful of starts doesn't make anyone better.

[natsbats]

Verlander has been the best pitcher in baseball for two years now.

There's nobody else you'd rather have on the mound in a big game than him.

[FortDetroit]

I remember Jeffy posting the stats for both leagues and they were roughly similar. but like I just posted, a handful of starts doesn't make anyone better.

it's not about cumulative statistics. a pitcher who gets essentially 2-3 free outs per game inherently has to work less and potentially has help getting out of jams if runners are on base when said pitcher comes to the plate.

its funny that you think that essentially giving a pitcher free outs doesn't help them though. pitchers rarely walk, they often strike out in 3-4 pitches, they often kill rallies if forced to bat and they help keep a pitcher's pitch count down. not rocket science. if you're a pitcher would you rather face david ortiz or barry zito at the plate?

tons of solid lifetime nl starting pitchers comes to the AL and cant hack it.

[FortDetroit]

Tell me this Chris, do you think it's a huge coincidence that from 2000-2012, there has only been 1 season in which the AL had more pitchers than the NL among the top 20 in ERA?

From 2000-2012, 61% of all pitchers (260 pitcher sample size) to finish in the top 20 of the league in ERA are from the NL. Is that another huge coincidence?

[StriveGreatness]

JV is the best pitcher in baseball so him...

[Jeffy25]

it's not about cumulative statistics. a pitcher who gets essentially 2-3 free outs per game inherently has to work less and potentially has help getting out of jams if runners are on base when said pitcher comes to the plate.

its funny that you think that essentially giving a pitcher free outs doesn't help them though. pitchers rarely walk, they often strike out in 3-4 pitches, they often kill rallies if forced to bat and they help keep a pitcher's pitch count down. not rocket science. if you're a pitcher would you rather face david ortiz or barry zito at the plate?

tons of solid lifetime nl starting pitchers comes to the AL and cant hack it.

the difference between the AL and NL offensively is minimal.

There is a reason why league adjusted numbers are very slight for each.

Yeah, the pitchers are supposed to be easy outs, but they only come up 2-3 times a game, usually bunt once a game, and overall, right now there are better top tier hitters in the NL than in the AL, which keeps it close.


It's amazing really, but the differences between both leagues is minimal, and calling the NL the JV league is a bad joke. Because honestly, if the NL was carrying around a DH, it would be destroying the AL offensively (in comparison)


2012 AL
.255/.320/.411
2012 NL
.254/.318/.400

Oh, and the NL scored about 900 more runs than the AL this year.

It's minimal.



There are a few additional reasons as well. There are some pitchers that are good hitters (but not many). And many DH's in the league aren't that great either (Ortiz and E5 are your exceptions, not the rule). And because pinch hitters come in fairly quickly and help stablize opportunities.

Also, there are just as many pitchers that switch to the AL and have success after struggling in the NL, it's for whatever reason, not talked about. But it's a myth that going to the NL will somehow help a pitcher.

[giants73756]

I wish Verlander could pitch in the JV league and get to face pitchers that kill rallies and help keep pitch counts down.

2012 vs. AL/ vs. NL:
Verlander - 2.84 ERA/1.62 ERA
Kershaw - 3.43 ERA/ 2.44 ERA

2011 vs. AL/ vs. NL:
Verlander - 2.58 ERA/0.75 ERA
Kershaw - 3.00 ERA/2.19 ERA

What is that, like 1-2 starts per year for each pitcher with or without the DH?

[Jeffy25]

Tell me this Chris, do you think it's a huge coincidence that from 2000-2012, there has only been 1 season in which the AL had more pitchers than the NL among the top 20 in ERA?

From 2000-2012, 61% of all pitchers (260 pitcher sample size) to finish in the top 20 of the league in ERA are from the NL. Is that another huge coincidence?

No one has denied that the NL pitchers have a small advantage. The argument is that it's MINIMAL. It's a very tiny edge.

Of course facing a pitcher a handful of times a game, and not David Ortiz is going to help a pitcher over the course of a season.

But the reality is that this edge is minute. It's so tiny that it's not even worth bringing up.

Kershaw's advantage in having a lower ERA has more to do with his awesome ballpark for pitchers. And while Verlander is a basically neutral park, Dodgers pitchers have enjoyed their stadium for decades. Kershaw is no different.


If I had to take one pitcher for 2013, I would take Verlander. Because he is a more dominating pitcher in a single game sample, and because he can eat innings like crazy. He is the best pitcher in baseball right now, much the way Roy Halladay was 12 months ago.

Kershaw has a long life ahead of him, and with his age, he should be a top 5 pitcher in baseball for up to another decade. He is an absolute beast, no problem in taking him....unless you are choosing to take him over Verlander.


But the idea that the AL is so much harder to pitch to than the NL just isn't true.

OPS by spot in the lineup
Order AL NL
1st .732 .700
2nd .703 .724
3rd .800 .824
4th .811 .813
5th .760 .756
6th .734 .748
7th .705 .712
8th .676 .674
9th .641 .467

The AL has the superior hitters in the 1, 5, 8 and 9 spots (and barely are ahead in 2 of those) (and Trout is almost single handedly responsible for the leadoff spot being that far ahead, it's kind of funny).
and the NL has the superior hitters in the 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7 spots

Overall, the offenses are crazy similar.

It isn't the JV league