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  1. #1
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    Here's my problem with advanced stats.

    1) A hit/walk/home run effects the outcome of a game much less when you're down big or up big in a game near the end. Yet in advanced metrics they are weighted the same as a two run homer when you're down by 1 in the 8th inning, etc etc.

    2) A single with a guy on second base with two outs should be valued higher than a single with nobody on base. 90 percent of the time that single creates a run.

    3) Advanced stats calculate if the season were one big 162 game, "game." It reality, their are 162 individual games and the object is to win each one, one at a time.

    4) Whether you agree or not, their is such a thing as being clutch. Guys press all the time.Ever been at the plate in a high pressure situation? Totally different. It's a different beast. If you don't get timely hits, you very rarely can win a game. Advanced stats disregard clutch situations and value each situation the same.

    5) Being able to create runs on your own, i.e. hitting home runs, should be valued much higher in advanced stats than what it currently is. Hitting home runs means you rely on nobody to get you home. It also changes games dramatically.

    6) Defense - UZR is a joke. Every measure tool is. If you know the stat and analyze it, it's one of the most flawed things in baseball. It's very circumstantial and why anyone would take that stat seriously is beyond me.

    7) RBI's DO MATTER. They matter a lot. They are ultimately what puts runs up on the board. You need to have good situational at bats at the least to get them 99 percent of the time. Situational baseball = winning baseball.

  2. #2
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    Oh boy here we go

  3. #3
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    3..............2................1...............


    Ariana Grande

  4. #4
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    30 Team Stadium Checklist: 10 to go

    1) Yankees 2) Orioles 3) Rays 4) Red Sox 5) Mets 6) Braves 7) Phillies 8) Nationals 9) Marlins 10) Pirates 11) Padres 12) Astros 13) Mariners 14) Twins 15) Cubs 16) White Sox 17) Cardinals 18) Indians 19) Tigers 20) Royals

  5. #5
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    This thread is a breath of fresh air! One of a kind genius from our boy, natsbats.

  6. 10-18-2012, 03:09 PM
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  7. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    5) Being able to create runs on your own, i.e. hitting home runs, should be valued much higher in advanced stats than what it currently is. Hitting home runs means you rely on nobody to get you home. It also changes games dramatically.
    Home runs are valued the most in all aspects of the game, saber metrics included. The more HR's you hit the higher your SLG thus the higher your OPS will be. Also your wOBA will be higher with the more HR you hit. You wRC will be higher because you are creating runs.

    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    7) RBI's DO MATTER. They matter a lot. They are ultimately what puts runs up on the board. You need to have good situational at bats at the least to get them 99 percent of the time. Situational baseball = winning baseball.
    RBI's are a team stat. It requires people to be on base in front of you. Look at Alfonso Soriano's 2007 season he hit 33 HR's but only had 70 RBI's. Someone with that many homeruns you would think would have somewhere between 90-100 RBI's but he batted leadoff. So he rarely had anyone on base in front of him and thats not his fault.

  8. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    1) A hit/walk/home run effects the outcome of a game much less when you're down big or up big in a game near the end. Yet in advanced metrics they are weighted the same as a two run homer when you're down by 1 in the 8th inning, etc etc.
    How is this an advanced stats problem, exactly?

  9. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    1) A hit/walk/home run effects the outcome of a game much less when you're down big or up big in a game near the end. Yet in advanced metrics they are weighted the same as a two run homer when you're down by 1 in the 8th inning, etc etc.
    What? That's not true at all.

    Advanced stats remove this information from being weighed the same with wOBA, wRC+, and WPA

    AVG/OBP/SLUG give them similar values, and we know that isn't the case.

    Are you arguing for or against advanced stats here?



    2) A single with a guy on second base with two outs should be valued higher than a single with nobody on base. 90 percent of the time that single creates a run.
    WPA, rLI

    It is weighed more, the information is readily available to you.

    3) Advanced stats calculate if the season were one big 162 game, "game." It reality, their are 162 individual games and the object is to win each one, one at a time.
    How is this different from traditional stats?

    4) Whether you agree or not, their is such a thing as being clutch. Guys press all the time.Ever been at the plate in a high pressure situation? Totally different. It's a different beast. If you don't get timely hits, you very rarely can win a game. Advanced stats disregard clutch situations and value each situation the same.
    Again, WPA

    5) Being able to create runs on your own, i.e. hitting home runs, should be valued much higher in advanced stats than what it currently is. Hitting home runs means you rely on nobody to get you home. It also changes games dramatically.
    They are.

    Advanced stats actually give a HR it's proper value, as opposed to traditional stats which weigh it the same as a single in batting average, or as the same as a walk in OBP.

    Advanced stats glorify the home run more than anything.

    Part of why Albert Pujols and Jose Bautista are such beasts according to Advanced stats, because of their home runs.

    6) Defense - UZR is a joke. Every measure tool is. If you know the stat and analyze it, it's one of the most flawed things in baseball. It's very circumstantial and why anyone would take that stat seriously is beyond me.
    Anyone looking at just one defensive stat isn't doing much thinking.

    It's better than fielding percentage, which is all your traditional stats will show. While UZR, TZ, DSR, and a number of other defensive stats exist, which you can use to help paint a brighter picture.

    7) RBI's DO MATTER. They matter a lot. They are ultimately what puts runs up on the board. You need to have good situational at bats at the least to get them 99 percent of the time. Situational baseball = winning baseball.
    they are a reflection of opportunity with men in scoring position



    Again, you need to look into WPA (win probability added).

    And it more so looks like you are arguing for advanced stats with your complaints. The things you are complaining about are measured and tracked.

  10. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    3) Advanced stats calculate if the season were one big 162 game, "game." It reality, their are 162 individual games and the object is to win each one, one at a time.
    This is my favorite.

  11. #10
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    lol i agree to an extent.

    instead of choosing either/or, i go by both advanced stats and reg stats.

    and most of the time i find myself to be correct from using both.


    LETS GO HEAT




  12. #11
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    One thing I've noticed, is that the "Advanced Stats," or at least a lot of the members here, take a lot of the human element out of the game. I understand both sides, and try not to get into the middle of it, thats just my take.
    Go Knicks!

    All time

  13. #12
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    I'm not an advocate for traditional stats either (aside from home runs and RBI's)

    I'm not saying those who don't get as many chances to bat with runners on base as others should be penalized either, obviously any sane person who knows any baseball knows a leadoff man won't have as many RBI chances as a 3 or 4 man.

    I'm saying RBI's in context of winning a baseball game is very important. It's what ultimately puts the run on the board, and conversely for pitchers.....getting out of jams is what usually wins/loses a game. It comes down to those key moments.

  14. #13
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    This should be fun.

  15. #14
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    i want someone to explain the diff between tradition stats and sabermetrics, and why i should care to use saber when traditional explains things just fine..


    LETS GO HEAT




  16. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    3) Advanced stats calculate if the season were one big 162 game, "game." It reality, their are 162 individual games and the object is to win each one, one at a time.


    you really don't understand advanced stats.

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