Post-Mortem: Offseason Thread

[GeronimoSon]

Dewitt acknowledged yesterday that they will let the payroll grow in coming seasons from the 115 million it will be around this year.

I'm assuming this doesn't mean the next few years so much as it does in 3-5 years when the big guys like Miller, Tavares and Wong are getting bigger money but also to keep other quality players also.

The Cardinals are actually in a pretty good position from a long term player contract cost perspective. There are only three or four contracts of any note going through/onto the 2014 season and beyond.. Holliday, Yadier and Jaime Garcia are the only ones that I can recall. Otherwise, there are significant contracts ending after the 2013 season. Names and contract values being what they are, the Cardinals should have approximately half of their 2013 projected salary unencumbered.. Some of those contracts will be increased.. some of the players will be released or permitted to go elsewhere. It's a certainty that Carlos Beltran, Wainwright and, maybe even Chris Carpenter will be offered extensions to be retained. Guys like Jake Westbrook & Rafael Furcal probably will be left off the Cardinals radar.. Otherwise, really don't have many players that are entering into the ARB III season where they can demand huge dollars, or, are becoming free agents..

So, the Cardinals should be pretty good from a salary perspective going into the 2014 season...

[Jeffy25]

The Cardinals are actually in a pretty good position from a long term player contract cost perspective. There are only three or four contracts of any note going through/onto the 2014 season and beyond.. Holliday, Yadier and Jaime Garcia are the only ones that I can recall. Otherwise, there are significant contracts ending after the 2013 season. Names and contract values being what they are, the Cardinals should have approximately half of their 2013 projected salary unencumbered.. Some of those contracts will be increased.. some of the players will be released or permitted to go elsewhere. It's a certainty that Carlos Beltran, Wainwright and, maybe even Chris Carpenter will be offered extensions to be retained. Guys like Jake Westbrook & Rafael Furcal probably will be left off the Cardinals radar.. Otherwise, really don't have many players that are entering into the ARB III season where they can demand huge dollars, or, are becoming free agents..

So, the Cardinals should be pretty good from a salary perspective going into the 2014 season...

Beltran won't be retained, regardless of his performance.

Taveras is taking his job. Beltran, if he performs well will be extended a qualifying offer and we'll take the draft pick. If he doesn't perform well, we'll consider it is his decline and let him walk.

Carpenter can only be given one year deals at this point and age.

Wainwright is the only one in line for a 4-5 year deal. And it might not be necessary and it might not happen.

Only Motte and Freese are coming up on raises that could matter at all, and neither will approach 10 million or anywhere close.


We should be around 75 million for the 2014 season. They might spend big on a free agent shortstop if they continue to be frustrated with what is out there, but I highly doubt it. They refuse to give money to outside free agents.

[JoeDirt05]

yep beltran is all but gone that job belongs to oscar

[Skippy15]

Yeah Beltran is gone. Only way Beltran is kept around is if something happens to Tavares like an injury that puts 2014 in jeopardy or his career in jeopardy. In 2014 I fully expect our line up to look something like

1. Wong 2B
2. Tavares RF
3. Holliday LF
4. Craig 1B
5. Molina C
6. Freese 3B
7. Jay CF
8. Shortstop
9. Pitcher.

Obviously, we don't know who will be SS and that could be a line up changer but also with so much free money I wouldn't be surprised to see us being in a guy of bit higher quality.

Rotation I'm expecting

1. Wainwright (yes, I think we will resign him to a reasonable deal. No real reason not to with all the youngsters)
2. Miller
3. Lynn
4. Garcia
5. Several possibilities. If Carp pitches good this year and wants to come back I think it's him. If he retires I think it could be Rosenthal, Martinez or Wacha. Personally I think it would be best to put Rosenthal and Martinez in the bullpen where they will be absolute studs but both have alot of starting potential. I think Wacha should stay at AAA in 2014 as a 6th man and join the rotation in 2015. They are all 21 so there's no rush at all. They could all probably be ready for 2014 but there's no reason to rush them up and let them have a full year of AAA. I think Rosenthal is ready for he role of back innings reliever. Wacha and Martinez could use some more time, all depending on the upcoming season

[Jeffy25]

Yeah Beltran is gone. Only way Beltran is kept around is if something happens to Tavares like an injury that puts 2014 in jeopardy or his career in jeopardy. In 2014 I fully expect our line up to look something like

1. Wong 2B
2. Tavares RF
3. Holliday LF
4. Craig 1B
5. Molina C
6. Freese 3B
7. Jay CF
8. Shortstop
9. Pitcher.

Obviously, we don't know who will be SS and that could be a line up changer but also with so much free money I wouldn't be surprised to see us being in a guy of bit higher quality.

Rotation I'm expecting

1. Wainwright (yes, I think we will resign him to a reasonable deal. No real reason not to with all the youngsters)
2. Miller
3. Lynn
4. Garcia
5. Several possibilities. If Carp pitches good this year and wants to come back I think it's him. If he retires I think it could be Rosenthal, Martinez or Wacha. Personally I think it would be best to put Rosenthal and Martinez in the bullpen where they will be absolute studs but both have alot of starting potential. I think Wacha should stay at AAA in 2014 as a 6th man and join the rotation in 2015. They are all 21 so there's no rush at all. They could all probably be ready for 2014 but there's no reason to rush them up and let them have a full year of AAA. I think Rosenthal is ready for he role of back innings reliever. Wacha and Martinez could use some more time, all depending on the upcoming season

There is the chance, although I don't see it happening...


They could trade Jay and give center to Taveras, and keep Beltran around.

It's an inefficient and stupid move. But they could do it.

Holliday will eventually have to go to first. But Craig probably has first for the next 4 years. So that means Holliday at first for 2017 only. Taveras will have right for 2014-2019 assuming all goes well. Jay will have center from 2013-2016.

Beltran doesn't have a role, and we have plenty of backup outfielders, and actually a few guys coming along that are going to push for jobs. Jay could be traded honestly before 2016 just because of the talent in the system. But outside of Taveras and Wong, everybody is at least 2 years away.


And I still believe in Greg Garcia. I hope he will be our shortstop.

[Jeffy25]

Grooming Martinez into a closer isn't the worst idea in the world.

The problem is that you might be cutting off his potential if you do that. And what if other starters don't pan out? Pitching is something you can really never have too much of. If Rosenthall needs TJ, and Garcia never improves, and Wainwright walks....and Carpenter is done after this year.....were gonna wish Martinez could turn into an ace.

I still think he will face many shoulder issues eventually. Maybe not for 10 years, maybe this year. I don't feel safe with his delivery. That's why limited innings as a closer would be ideal to me.

If he could learn how to throw a cutter off his fastball, he could be one of the best closers in baseball. And his curveball is just unfair. He would be very dominant in the 9th.

[Skippy15]

There is the chance, although I don't see it happening...


They could trade Jay and give center to Taveras, and keep Beltran around.

It's an inefficient and stupid move. But they could do it.

Holliday will eventually have to go to first. But Craig probably has first for the next 4 years. So that means Holliday at first for 2017 only. Taveras will have right for 2014-2019 assuming all goes well. Jay will have center from 2013-2016.

Beltran doesn't have a role, and we have plenty of backup outfielders, and actually a few guys coming along that are going to push for jobs. Jay could be traded honestly before 2016 just because of the talent in the system. But outside of Taveras and Wong, everybody is at least 2 years away.


And I still believe in Greg Garcia. I hope he will be our shortstop.

I agree that they could trade Jay to keep Beltran but I don't think it's their style.

The have a very talented CF in Jay, not a perennial allstar by any means. But a very good player offensively and defensively. He will never be overly expensive. The only flaw I see in his game is lacking power.

But like you said its a stupid move. It hurts your outfield defense, its more expensive and we would be trading away a good young player to give the job to Beltran, who is a great player but expensive, old and injury prone.

Only way I see Beltran staying is if they come out and say they are adding the DH to the NL for 2014 and beyond lol (sadly not impossible)

[JoeDirt05]

id rather keep jay he is edmonds like when it comes to patrolling center field

[Skippy15]

id rather keep jay he is edmonds like when it comes to patrolling center field

Agreed and I never thought he would be that good.

He isn't the same level of talent in the outfield as Jimmy was but he commands the outfield, anything he can get get to is his.

He would be a star if he had more power. Also has a weak arm

[Jeffy25]

id rather keep jay he is edmonds like when it comes to patrolling center field

Oh absolutely (although he isn't quite that good defensively )

Just saying something they could do. Not something they should do.

Taveras belongs in right, and he should replace Beltran full time after this season.

[rapjuicer06]

What do you do if Tavares has an insane Spring Training?

[Jeffy25]

What do you do if Tavares has an insane Spring Training?

You still have to send him down to start the season until about June.


The only reason he starts the season with the team is if there is a significant injury to one of Jay, Holliday, or Beltran.

You want to delay his clock until June, which gives us one more year of control over him, and another year until arbitration begins. And if he is going to be in the big leagues, he needs to be starting. The kid hasn't even been to AAA yet. Not that he necessarily has to. But it's good to let him get adjusted there first.


If he has an insane ST, and say Beltran or Jay looks really bad. Then you can call him up and let Beltran or Jay be a bench player who super subs. But I think that's a very highly unlikely scenario.


It's ideal if we can delay that clock another year though. That's the best situation for us.

[Skippy15]

You still have to send him down to start the season until about June.


The only reason he starts the season with the team is if there is a significant injury to one of Jay, Holliday, or Beltran.

You want to delay his clock until June, which gives us one more year of control over him, and another year until arbitration begins. And if he is going to be in the big leagues, he needs to be starting. The kid hasn't even been to AAA yet. Not that he necessarily has to. But it's good to let him get adjusted there first.


If he has an insane ST, and say Beltran or Jay looks really bad. Then you can call him up and let Beltran or Jay be a bench player who super subs. But I think that's a very highly unlikely scenario.


It's ideal if we can delay that clock another year though. That's the best situation for us.

And him. It would be very bad for a 20 year old to come up after an insane spring and struggle. Total confidence killer and as we all know, you have to be sure of your ability in baseball. If you have doubt in your mind going up to the plate your almost basically out before ever getting in the box.

Best to let him play in AAA for a few months, let him get somewhere between 100-200 at bats before calling him, let him do some platooning with Beltran/Jay/Holliday the first couple weeks. Get himself acquainted with the big leagues and then getting some significant time in CF and RF

[Skippy15]

Mo said today he considers Wainwright the face of the franchise and he hopes to have him signed by opening day

He also said How carpenter feels after 2013 will decide if he pitches in 2014

It's unlikely Lohse will be back with cards

Pretty much stuff we knew. But thought I'd throw it all out there

I still think a fair deal gets done for us both when it comes to Wainwright.

I think this is why he should have waited on Westbrook, he is a solid 5th starter but when we could have had a year of Lohse for a little but more money I would have rather done that.

No clue about Carp, he's probably the biggest question mark next off season but if he has another good year I'm totally open to another year of carp. A rotation of

Wainwright
Miller
Carpenter
Lynn
Garcia

Would be extremely talented and fun haha

[Skippy15]

Cardinals and motte agree to 2 year deal

No dollar figures yet