
Originally Posted by
DusG1988
Jets Offense:
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Sanchez is one of those Quarterbacks who will make a huge play for a touchdown one drive then give up a pick six on the next. He is also not very accurate, as he sits in 31st place in that category (accurate on 64.4% of "aimed passes"). Sanchez's accuracy then drops to 50.4% when he is under pressure. He has pretty good pocket awareness however and is only allowing 17% of his pressures to be sacks. He is being pressured on 31.3% of his dropbacks. The Jets use Play Action the 19th most in the league (16.7% of dropbacks, Phins are 20th at 16.3%). On the deep throw, Sanchez has been accurate on 41% of his attempts (12 of 29 attempts).
Pass blocking on the Oline is collectively a concern for the jets. They are rated 23rd in Pass Blocking efficiency with a score of 78.2. They have allowed 8 sacks, 14 hits, & 44 hurries through 7 games. Though Sanchez has been sacked 13 times, 3 of those are attributed to his poor pocket awareness. LT Ferguson has been a bit of a bright spot on their oline, so the Odrick/Vernon duo need to make sure to go hard against him. Ferguson is rated as the 9th best pass blocking Offensive Tackle. On the other side, Right Tackle Austin Howard has been a liability. He is rated 64th (out of 69). He has been beaten for 29 total pressures (including 3 sacks) and should pose no real issue for Wake. Their Guards are in the same realm as Incognito and Jerry. Slauson & Moore are both rated higher than Jerry by a few spots and lower than Incognito by a few spots (Slauson, 40th & Moore, 43rd). Center Nick Mangold is middle of the pack this year tied for 14th. He has allowed 5 pressures (including a sack)
As for Run Blocking, the Jets are rated collectively 30th by ProFootballFocus. LT Ferguson has a overall run block rating of -2.3. LG Slauson has a score of -5.1. Mangold has been a beast in run blocking as his score is +9.0. RG Moore is at -3.0, & RT Howard is rated at +2.2. TE Dustin Keller is rated -1.3 and TE Epps is rated -2.9. The fullbacks are not helping much either as Hilliard is rated at a woeful -7.9. Hard for anyone to think that this Jets team is going to have success against a Dolphins defensive unit that is rated 2nd against the run by PFF and 3rd when it comes to YPC allowed.
In the recieving game, Kerley, & Keller are the weapons. Kerley has been more productive than Holmes this year before his injury. 37 targets, 25 receptions, 435 yards (120 yac), and tied for 19th place with Davone Bess. Hill is very talented as well, but has dropped 4 passes out of 16 catchable passes. Needs to work on his hands.
Jets Defense:
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Right D-end Muhammad Wilkerson has been solid against the run. So has Left D-end Quintin Coples. Jets NT position has been a bit of a revolving door and the newest piece to be inserted (Devito) has done a decent job against the run. He was a LE before the previous 2 games and has had a very good game against the run and one slightly bad game (+2.1 colts, & -0.9 Patriots). He would still be the one I want to target If i were Bush/Philbin. Especially because Mike Pouncey is the best Center in the League right now. Also The trio of Inside LB in the Jets 3-4 defense (Scott, Davis, & Harris) are not particularly efficient at stopping the run. If our offensive line, namely Long, Incognito, & Martin, step their game up we should have no problem running the ball.
Jonathan Martin could have his hands full this week going up against Coples who has been decent at rushing the passer (+1.1). But Long should be able to dominate Wilkerson who has not been good at the task (-1.9). Pouncey should be able to handle Devito (-2.9) in the middle as he has applied only 4 hurries on the year (including his time at End, which probably prompted his move to NT). Outside LB's Pace (-7.9), Thomas (-2.3), & Maybin (-4.1) should not be very effective at disrupting Tannehill, so the Jets are going to have to Blitz a lot if they wish to penetrate our O-line (which is rated as the 11th best pass blocking o-line). Add in that Tannehill has shown remarkable pocket awareness by not being responsible for any of the 12 sacks against him and only being sacked on 18.2% of the plays he is under pressure. It all adds up to the Jets blitzing us and leaving a man open.
Coverage. Last, but certainly not least. Cromartie has been showing out allowing only a 46.5 overall QB rating, which is good enough for 9th best in the league. Qb's are completing only 39% of their passes against him and are only targeting him 15.7% of the time. Cromartie has allowed 2 TD's to be completed on him already, though he has 3 INT and 6 passes defended. 3rd year CB Kyle Wilson is also making a name for himself only allowing a 56.4 qb rating through 7 games and targeted on 14.6% of the plays hes in (0 TD, 1 INT, 1 defensed pass). Trufant in the Slot has not been as effective, allowing a 129.2 QB rating but he has not played a lot of snaps. Lankaster is the more likely CB we will see opposite Cromartie, while Wilson moves inside on the nickel packages. He has allowed a 70.6 qb rating and is targeted on 18.3% of the plays he is in coverage. He is also allowing a 55.6% completion percentage and a touchdown, with 1 interception.
Prognosis:
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20-10 Dolphins win.
I think the Dolphins have good momentum while the Jets just suffered a heartbreak against a division rival.
I think our run game comes back alive and we stop Shonn Green. I think we score at least 1 passing TD, and they do to. We should be looking to run, and go underneath, but go deep when they blitz a safety out of necessity. We should be able to apply ample pressure on Sanchez especially on Wake's side. Maybe a 3 sack game for Wake with another 2-3 coming from others. Jones, Smith, Carroll & J. Wilson should be able to contain Kerley, Hill, and Gates. Dansby, Burnett, and Misi may be able to limit Keller, but Keller will have his receptions and may be the receiver of the sole TD pass from Sanchez.