Boras: ‘Strong chance’ Soriano will opt out

[Chise]

You guys are crazy. Soriano was hugely important this year with Rivera out. And with Rivera talking retirement, it might be the best thing to let Rivera retire and re-sign Soriano for 3 years to be the closer. If Yanks let Sori walk and Rivera isn't able to come back fully, craps out, or decides closer to ST not to return, Yanks are screwed. Remember how bad Robertson was as a closer? Be careful what you wish for...

[theslick1]

You are making a large amount of assumptions... and we all know how that ends up...
Still, there are other things that are not assumptions. The Yanks want to get below 189 mil for the 2014 season. A few knowns enter that mix:

Doubtful that Andy and Hiroki will be sign for 2014 (~22 mil or so savings)
Derek's contract appears to drop to 8 mil for 2014... ~9 mil in savings
Mo is not signed, and if he does what he states, he might not even be around for 2013, let alone 2014... ~15 mil in savings.
Robbie Cano and Curtis Granderson are both UFA's after 2013. Not speculating on savings, because totally unknown if the Yanks will even try and succeed in signing one or both of them after 2013.
Burnett becomes a UFA, so his remaining salary is gone too ~8 mil.
Hughes may be a UFA, and Joba will be as well. Who knows if the Yanks will try to resign or no.
Soriano could opt out this season, and will be a UFA after this year. ~14 mil

What is comes down to is this: If the Yanks want to cut the payroll, there are quite a few areas they can do so. Heck, just leaving Pettitte and Kuroda off the list will be huge enough savings to be close... but Robbie and Curtis will command more as well.... We will just have to wait and see.

I don't disagree with any of that, but my assumptions were about 2013, and you're talking about 2014.

[theslick1]

You guys are crazy. Soriano was hugely important this year with Rivera out. And with Rivera talking retirement, it might be the best thing to let Rivera retire and re-sign Soriano for 3 years to be the closer. If Yanks let Sori walk and Rivera isn't able to come back fully, craps out, or decides closer to ST not to return, Yanks are screwed. Remember how bad Robertson was as a closer? Be careful what you wish for...

I think closers are a bit overrated. The job is basically to pitch one inning and don't give up a run. Is it really that difficult to do?

If Rivera retires and Soriano goes elsewhere, just try out one of the existing bullpen guys until someone consistently gets the job done.

[LeoYankee]

I'm pretty sure every single closer blew a save this offseason.

[Harry Dunn]

Math check assuming Soriano opts out:

2013 payroll:

A-Rod - 29 (signed)
Jeter - 17 (signed)
Cano - 15 (signed)
Tex - 23 (signed)
Martin - 7 (he made 7.5 last year and is a FA)
Gardner - 3 (assumes arbitration increase from 2.8)
Granderson - 15 (signed)
Ichiro - 8 (assumes he's re-signed with a pay cut)
Stewart - 0.5 (league minimum)
Nunez - 0.5 (league minimum)
[Jones or his replacement] - 2 (Jones made 2 last year)
[Ibanez or his replacement] - 2 (Ibanez made 1.1 last year)
[Chavez or his replacement] - 2 (Chaves made 0.9 last year)
TOTAL ON POSITION PLAYERS = 124M

CC - 23 (signed)
Andy - 10 (assumes re-signs for this amount)
Kuroda - 12 (he made 10 last year; assumes re-sign with raise)
Hughes - 5 (assumes arbitration raise from 3.2)
Nova - 0.5 (league minimum)
Phelps - 0.5 (league minimum)
Eppley - 0.5 (league minimum)
Rapada - 0.5 (league minimum)
Joba - 2 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.1)
Logan - 3 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.9)
Mariano - 15 (assumes he sign for the same as 2012)
D-Rob - 3 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.6)
Aardsma - 0.5 (league minimum)
Pineda - 0.5 (league minimum)
Burnett - 8 (the Yankees are picking up 1/2 of his 16M)
TOTAL ON PITCHERS = 84M

TOTAL PAYROLL = 208M

To get below 189M in 2014, at least one of the expensive players has to be replaced by someone inexpensive. That means either Granderson is replaced by a cheap option, Andy retires and is replaced by Phelps or Pineda, Mariano retires and is replaced by someone cheaper, etc.

Pretty bad that the Yankees could do absolutely nothing to improve their team and would still be over 200 million. I wouldn't give Rivera 15 though.