Boras: ‘Strong chance’ Soriano will opt out

[jojofry]

Thanks for freeing up that 14 million...

[JobaRules26]

Glad he was with us this year but he can move on now =)

[ERod]

I bet he will. After the numbers he put up this year, he knows he got a big payday coming.

[LeoYankee]

Yanks should get sourpuss a Mazda as a parting gift.

[Pinstripe pride]

that is excellent news!

[Yankee Clipper]

Glad he was with us this year but he can move on now =)

Absolutely. That money would be more useful in other places.

[bfrap]

hmmm, let's do the math shall we...
From what I have been able to put up, 2012 salary for the NYY was in the neighborhood of $198 million.
subtract 14, you get 184... sounds like we are below next years threshold already.
We just call betances or another rookie up to take his place and we are that much closer to the 2012 goal.

On top of that, the best closer of a year ago only got ~11 mil... Go ahead Scott... Let's see you get a better than 14 mil elsewhere... PLEASE!!!

[Pinstripe pride]

hmmm, let's do the math shall we...
From what I have been able to put up, 2012 salary for the NYY was in the neighborhood of $198 million.
subtract 14, you get 184... sounds like we are below next years threshold already.
We just call betances or another rookie up to take his place and we are that much closer to the 2012 goal.

On top of that, the best closer of a year ago only got ~11 mil... Go ahead Scott... Let's see you get a better than 14 mil elsewhere... PLEASE!!!

thats not counting any of the raises and re-signing we need to do. everyones contract doesn't simply stay the same year in and year out

[theslick1]

hmmm, let's do the math shall we...
From what I have been able to put up, 2012 salary for the NYY was in the neighborhood of $198 million.
subtract 14, you get 184... sounds like we are below next years threshold already.
We just call betances or another rookie up to take his place and we are that much closer to the 2012 goal.

On top of that, the best closer of a year ago only got ~11 mil... Go ahead Scott... Let's see you get a better than 14 mil elsewhere... PLEASE!!!

Math check assuming Soriano opts out:

2013 payroll:

A-Rod - 29 (signed)
Jeter - 17 (signed)
Cano - 15 (signed)
Tex - 23 (signed)
Martin - 7 (he made 7.5 last year and is a FA)
Gardner - 3 (assumes arbitration increase from 2.8)
Granderson - 15 (signed)
Ichiro - 8 (assumes he's re-signed with a pay cut)
Stewart - 0.5 (league minimum)
Nunez - 0.5 (league minimum)
[Jones or his replacement] - 2 (Jones made 2 last year)
[Ibanez or his replacement] - 2 (Ibanez made 1.1 last year)
[Chavez or his replacement] - 2 (Chaves made 0.9 last year)
TOTAL ON POSITION PLAYERS = 124M

CC - 23 (signed)
Andy - 10 (assumes re-signs for this amount)
Kuroda - 12 (he made 10 last year; assumes re-sign with raise)
Hughes - 5 (assumes arbitration raise from 3.2)
Nova - 0.5 (league minimum)
Phelps - 0.5 (league minimum)
Eppley - 0.5 (league minimum)
Rapada - 0.5 (league minimum)
Joba - 2 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.1)
Logan - 3 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.9)
Mariano - 15 (assumes he sign for the same as 2012)
D-Rob - 3 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.6)
Aardsma - 0.5 (league minimum)
Pineda - 0.5 (league minimum)
Burnett - 8 (the Yankees are picking up 1/2 of his 16M)
TOTAL ON PITCHERS = 84M

TOTAL PAYROLL = 208M

To get below 189M in 2014, at least one of the expensive players has to be replaced by someone inexpensive. That means either Granderson is replaced by a cheap option, Andy retires and is replaced by Phelps or Pineda, Mariano retires and is replaced by someone cheaper, etc.

[Webslinger]

I don't see how the yankees can justify giving 7 million dollars to a .200 hitter. His situational hitting is even worse! I'd rather take my chances with Yorvit Torrealba for like a million or maybe mike napoli for 5 or 6 million.

[theslick1]

I don't see how the yankees can justify giving 7 million dollars to a .200 hitter. His situational hitting is even worse! I'd rather take my chances with Yorvit Torrealba for like a million or maybe mike napoli for 5 or 6 million.

Neither Torrealba nor Napoli is cut out to be a full time catcher. Torrealba has never caught more than 112 games in a season (and that was in 2007), and Napoli's high water mark was 96 games back in 2009. Plus, neither guy hits much anymore.

If they want to go cheap at catcher, they'd be better off letting Chris Stewart catch, but I think they'll bring Martin back.

[Yankees90.]

Na na na na, na na na na...........HEY HEY HEY....GOODBYEEEEE!!!!!!!!

[6cadi6]

Glad he was with us this year but he can move on now =)

[bfrap]

Math check assuming Soriano opts out:

2013 payroll:

A-Rod - 29 (signed)
Jeter - 17 (signed)
Cano - 15 (signed)
Tex - 23 (signed)
Martin - 7 (he made 7.5 last year and is a FA)
Gardner - 3 (assumes arbitration increase from 2.8)
Granderson - 15 (signed)
Ichiro - 8 (assumes he's re-signed with a pay cut)
Stewart - 0.5 (league minimum)
Nunez - 0.5 (league minimum)
[Jones or his replacement] - 2 (Jones made 2 last year)
[Ibanez or his replacement] - 2 (Ibanez made 1.1 last year)
[Chavez or his replacement] - 2 (Chaves made 0.9 last year)
TOTAL ON POSITION PLAYERS = 124M

CC - 23 (signed)
Andy - 10 (assumes re-signs for this amount)
Kuroda - 12 (he made 10 last year; assumes re-sign with raise)
Hughes - 5 (assumes arbitration raise from 3.2)
Nova - 0.5 (league minimum)
Phelps - 0.5 (league minimum)
Eppley - 0.5 (league minimum)
Rapada - 0.5 (league minimum)
Joba - 2 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.1)
Logan - 3 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.9)
Mariano - 15 (assumes he sign for the same as 2012)
D-Rob - 3 (assumes arbitration raise from 1.6)
Aardsma - 0.5 (league minimum)
Pineda - 0.5 (league minimum)
Burnett - 8 (the Yankees are picking up 1/2 of his 16M)
TOTAL ON PITCHERS = 84M

TOTAL PAYROLL = 208M

To get below 189M in 2014, at least one of the expensive players has to be replaced by someone inexpensive. That means either Granderson is replaced by a cheap option, Andy retires and is replaced by Phelps or Pineda, Mariano retires and is replaced by someone cheaper, etc.

You are making a large amount of assumptions... and we all know how that ends up...
Still, there are other things that are not assumptions. The Yanks want to get below 189 mil for the 2014 season. A few knowns enter that mix:

Doubtful that Andy and Hiroki will be sign for 2014 (~22 mil or so savings)
Derek's contract appears to drop to 8 mil for 2014... ~9 mil in savings
Mo is not signed, and if he does what he states, he might not even be around for 2013, let alone 2014... ~15 mil in savings.
Robbie Cano and Curtis Granderson are both UFA's after 2013. Not speculating on savings, because totally unknown if the Yanks will even try and succeed in signing one or both of them after 2013.
Burnett becomes a UFA, so his remaining salary is gone too ~8 mil.
Hughes may be a UFA, and Joba will be as well. Who knows if the Yanks will try to resign or no.
Soriano could opt out this season, and will be a UFA after this year. ~14 mil


What is comes down to is this: If the Yanks want to cut the payroll, there are quite a few areas they can do so. Heck, just leaving Pettitte and Kuroda off the list will be huge enough savings to be close... but Robbie and Curtis will command more as well.... We will just have to wait and see.

[bfrap]

The Yankees probably will make the qualifying offer, but do have to think about the risk of Soriano taking it and potentially turning from a $14 million setup man to a $15.1 million setup man and also removing the possibility of using those dollars elsewhere.

The beauty of this system is this. The Yankees will have to make the qualifying offer within 5 days. Soriano will then only have 7 days to either accept or reject the offer. That means that Scott Boras, will have to make a decision in November, which I have never seen him make any decisions until January. He won't be able to play the shop around and if nothing better comes up, take the Qualifying offer.... it is a take it or leave it EARLY deal.

I would not expect any Boras client to accept the Q-Offers.