Official offseason thread

[mikeydady]

I think you are really over valuing these cubs. Honestly, Soriano is the worst defensive outfielder in the game. If we made a list, he may be the worst all around defensive player in the league. Considering his salary, he has close to no trade value. The cubs have been trying to dump him for years and have gotten no takers. The Giants completed a trade that involved two prospects that were not on their top 20 prospect list. He nixed the deal. That's a year ago and including the cubs eating most of his deal. I'd say he's worth about that. His only value would be as a DH and only if he's willing to accept a trade which he's had no interest in doing. So let's get real on him. The cubs have NO proven pitching at all. They are one of the worst teams in baseball. The moves they made really didn't address this problem much. The only reason I would say we would be including them in a trade is to take a flier on their overpaid guys. As for Garza, they are paying him a ton and he not pitch next season. He will not be ready for ST unless you meant 2014. I think I may currently have more trade value. So what do you think the cubs would want for him? The Os eat some cash and throw the cubs some prospects. That's it. What do you think he's worth? Jones, Manny, Bundy, Both these guys have been widely considered two of the worst FO deals of the last 10 years.

As far as Porcello, the cubs don't need the Os to get him really, Marmol and one of the SS prospects (I was thinking about them moving one of those (Baez) more than Castro) for Porcello and the Tigers 3B prospect (Castellanos).

Or the Os could do it without the Cubs. Say Jim Johnson and Hardy for Castellanos, Boesch and Porcello.

So why are they even talking a three way deal?

[mikeydady]

Wait? The cubs were offered Porcello straight up for Barney? And they didn't jump on it? Then there is no question that they have the most overrated GM in the game. Look at these stats I just looked up- Are these good numbers? I'd say Avery and a BP arm are far more valuable than this: The cubs need an 2B worse the the Os do.
Barney- Age 26
G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG
SEASON 156 548 73 139 194 26 4 7 44 33 1 58 6 1 .254

OBP SLG OPS GO/AO
.299 .354 .653 1.25

If all the Os have to do to get Porcello is to do better than this boarder line mlb pro, I think I was offering too much in my ridiculous trade senario.

[terp12354]

Since we are playing GM for a day, this is what I think I would do if I was DD this offseason.

1. Try and trade Patton/Matusz and a minor league prospect for Morse. The nats are a good team but have no lefties in the bullpen so this addresses a position of need for them.
2. Sign Joe Saunders, hopefully to a one year deal with a club option for a second year. Worst case scenario is we trade him at the deadline but you can never have enough pitching depth.

That would make the roster look something like this:

1. Reimold-LF
2. Hardy-SS
3. Markakis-RF
4. Jones-CF
5. Davis-1b
6. Weiters-C
7. Morse- DH
8. Machado- 3b
9. Roberts- 2b

Bench: Mclouth, Teagarden, Betemit, Casilla

1. Hammel
2. Chen
3. Gonzalez
4. Tillman
5. Saunders

BP: Johnson, Strop, Patton (or Matusz whoever isnt traded), O'day, Ayala. Wada, Hunter

The starting lineup would have speed at the tope and bottom and power throughout. The bench would be experienced and versitile. The starting staff proved solid to good the second half of last year and the bullpen would be pretty similar except Wada would become the second lefty and would give us some versitily as a lefty specilist or a long relief option. That would still leave Arrietta, Britton, Johnson, and Bundy as insurance starts should anyone struggle or get hurt.

I think this is definetly possible stuff for DD to accomplish, thoughts?

[OsfaninFlorida]

I agree with your line-up, and pitching. Though Flaherty might be someone who pushes for a bench position along Mcfarland sneaking in the BP this year. I see this as a solid line up and ok pitching.

[rkelly7]

I think it is a great lineup with suspect pitching. I really like what some of our guys did last year, but I'm not sold on Hammel being anything above a number three and Tillman had a great stretch of starts, but I think that will regress as well. I think Chen can keep it up and maybe even improve. I am on the fence about Saunders. I like his durability, but I don't want to pay 8 mill a year for him for at least 2 years. We have Bundy and Gausman waiting in the wings.

Lineup awesome, bullpen good, rotation suspect. That's my take. Would love to take flier on Jurjenns (spelling?) or Marcum though.

[rkelly7]

And I really liked the trade idea with the Tigers mikeydaddy mentioned.

Detroit gets:

Jim Johnson
JJ Hardy

Orioles get:

Rick Porcello
Brendan Boesch
Nick Castellanos

As much as I love Hardy, he is 30 and we can maximize his value now and shift Manny to SS. I love Jim Johnson too, but he will soon be a luxury we cannot afford.

Castellanos would be our new 3B of the future. He has also been playing RF as the Tigers have the corners jammed with Fielder and Cabrera,. Here is his scouting report from fangraphs.com. He is the tigers #1 prospect.

#1 Nick Castellanos (3B/OF)
Age PA H 2B HR BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG wOBA
20 694 196 38 11 46 149 10 .308 .356 .432 .358
Castellanos has been the Tigers’ best hitting prospect since being selected in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. Originally a third baseman, he was moved to right field in 2012 in an effort to find a spot for him on the big league club with veteran Miguel Cabrera currently manning the hot corner.

He still has a chance to play regularly at either position, depending on what the future holds for him. A talent evaluator said Castellanos has embraced the move. “Nick’s taken to it quite well… He’s working very hard at it. He’s a good athlete… it’s just going to take some time.”

Castellanos has consistently hit for average but he has yet to tap into his power, which projects to be at least average. The contact said the prospect is a good hitter who knows the strike zone. “He barrels the ball as well as anybody… He has a good body to add power.”

After hitting .264 in 79 double-A games (after a promotion from high-A), he then hit .242 in 24 Arizona Fall League games which increases the likelihood that Castellanos could return to the level to begin 2013. Despite potentially returning to double-A, he could reach the majors this coming season. I’m told he’ll open the year playing right field while taking grounders at third base.

[rkelly7]

Then, we trade Patton and Avery for Morse, and sign brian Wilson to be our closer

beginning 2013

C Wieters
1B Davis
2B Casilla/Flaherty/Roberts
SS Machado
3B Free agent, Brandon Inge?
LF Reimold/McClouth
CF Jones
RF Markakis
DH Morse

Bench: Boesch, Casilla/Flaherty/Roberts, Hoes

*** Castellanos would be ready to man 3B come the All Star Break I would assume.

SP1 Hammel
SP2 Chen
SP3 Porcello
SP4 Tillman
SP5 Gonzalez/Johnson/Arrieta/Matusz

CL Wilson (1 year, 7 mill)
SU Strop
SU O'Day
LHS Matusz
Lefty McFarlane
Ayala
Wada/Hunter

[hoosiercubsfan]

I think you are really over valuing these cubs. Honestly, Soriano is the worst defensive outfielder in the game. If we made a list, he may be the worst all around defensive player in the league. Considering his salary, he has close to no trade value. The cubs have been trying to dump him for years and have gotten no takers. The Giants completed a trade that involved two prospects that were not on their top 20 prospect list. He nixed the deal. That's a year ago and including the cubs eating most of his deal. I'd say he's worth about that. His only value would be as a DH and only if he's willing to accept a trade which he's had no interest in doing. So let's get real on him.

Soriano is not the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. He is actually a very decent defensive left fielder. You cannot go by what is said in the media. If you take the time to look at his stats he has done very well and did even better last season with some actual coaching from Dave McKay. It was stated towards the end of last season the reason for Soriano's uptick in defense was that was the first time he had actually gotten any coaching on playing outfield. That he was just thrown out there to figure it out on his own. Now there is no way to confirm or deny that but to call him the worst defensive outfielder is patently false.

He has stated that he preferred to stay in the midwest or east coast and that was why he nixed the deal to SF. The Cubs have constantly said they would eat good portion of his contract though expect something decent in return.

The cubs have NO proven pitching at all. They are one of the worst teams in baseball. The moves they made really didn't address this problem much. The only reason I would say we would be including them in a trade is to take a flier on their overpaid guys. As for Garza, they are paying him a ton and he not pitch next season. He will not be ready for ST unless you meant 2014. I think I may currently have more trade value. So what do you think the cubs would want for him? The Os eat some cash and throw the cubs some prospects. That's it. What do you think he's worth? Jones, Manny, Bundy, Both these guys have been widely considered two of the worst FO deals of the last 10 years.

The Cubs have something like 7 starters right now under contract. How is it they have no proven pitching? They have signed Scott Feldman, Scott Baker, Edwin Jackson to go along with Garza, Samardzija. Not to mention they have Travis Wood and Carlos Villanueva sitting out there also as quality ML depth for the rotation. So to say they have no pitching is pretty laughable. Really the only over paid guys at this point on the team are Marmol and Soriano though neither grossly over paid with the current market set with massive amounts of TV money. And Garza may not pitch next season? Are you his doctor or something? He has already started offseason throwing and by all accounts should be ready for ST. So what is your basis on him not being ready for ST or being able to throw at all in 2013? He isn't being paid a ton being he is just now reaching his final season of arbitration. He should come in around 10-11 million for next season as he was paid 9.75 for last season. Not to mention money is the last thing the Cubs are worried about. They would rather pay for prospects coming back than worry about saving payroll. You may currently have more trade value now as teams are waiting to see Garza pitch in ST. If he comes out strong in ST he will go for a package just south of what was given for James Shields. And if he does come in still injured he would most likely just be extended and not traded. The Cubs are not just going to give up Garza for nothing. They are either going to get their asking price or keep him.

As far as Porcello, the cubs don't need the Os to get him really, Marmol and one of the SS prospects (I was thinking about them moving one of those (Baez) more than Castro) for Porcello and the Tigers 3B prospect (Castellanos).

Or the Os could do it without the Cubs. Say Jim Johnson and Hardy for Castellanos, Boesch and Porcello.

So why are they even talking a three way deal?

Your right the Cubs don't need the O's though the Tigers seem to want to find a way to get Hardy. So I think that was the insistience on their part to bring the O's in. Being they need a good defensive piece for a putrid defensive infield. Two things I am not certain the Tigers are going to move Castellanos for anything and I don't think that package in return for the Cubs is enough to include Baez. It is already being rumored that with another strong season from Baez that he might be the center piece for a David Price trade next off season.

And with that trade proposal I think you are drastically over rating the pieces coming back for the O's. Your not getting Castellanos for Hardy and Johnson let alone Porcello also.

[hoosiercubsfan]

Wait? The cubs were offered Porcello straight up for Barney? And they didn't jump on it? Then there is no question that they have the most overrated GM in the game. Look at these stats I just looked up- Are these good numbers? I'd say Avery and a BP arm are far more valuable than this: The cubs need an 2B worse the the Os do.
Barney- Age 26
G AB R H TB 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB SO SB CS AVG
SEASON 156 548 73 139 194 26 4 7 44 33 1 58 6 1 .254

OBP SLG OPS GO/AO
.299 .354 .653 1.25

If all the Os have to do to get Porcello is to do better than this boarder line mlb pro, I think I was offering too much in my ridiculous trade senario.

Barney is a borderline pro? If you only look at his offensive stats I could see how you got there. But that completely ignores the fact that he is pretty damn good defensively at second base. I know they don't mean as much anymore but there is a reason he won the GG at second last season. And the Cubs are really trying to build up the defense up the middle so them not being willing to trade Barney straight up for Porcello makes sense. Especially trading a major part of your infield defense for a pitcher who is going to rely on that very defense.

[mikeydady]

I am loyal to the Os players as much as the next fan so I appreciate your valuing your cubbies but this is crazy. You were right about Garza having a chance to make ST. But that's about it. Lets be real. Theo tried to trade Garza before he even got the job. He over valued Garza and thought he could get a Shields type deal. It wasn't happening then, it will never happen now that he's injured. If the cubs get a Myers type prospect for Garza, I'll pay you his salary. Save Jeff S and his one full season of 170 innings. Everyone else in that rotation is either coming off huge injury and bad seasons. That's not depth. Not at all.
The difference between Hardy and Barney Hardy is a multiple GG SS with power. On almost any other team than the cubs, he's a minor leaguer at best a bench player. Barney is a defensive specialist. He is very easily replaceable on the wavier if they could have gotten Porcello. So as far as Hardy and Johnson not being worth the package I suggested is comical. If Soriono is a good defensive OF by your scouting every other scout in the mlb must be wrong. A few weeks of better defensive doesn't change a career in the contrary. It's not as if he's young and he's not playing in front of cubbies fans. He's horrible. A throw in player on frankly a team of throw-ins and prospects (be them promising). I love baseball so I'm rooting for the cubbies to be good. Great fans, the best park atmosphere but this this just delusional. Price for Baez and others? The rays have Hu (just about as good as Baez). Why trade for Baez? If they want to go for Price why not just spend for him as a FA rather than loose prospect just to lose Price any way when he's a FA?

[hoosiercubsfan]

I am loyal to the Os players as much as the next fan so I appreciate your valuing your cubbies but this is crazy. You were right about Garza having a chance to make ST. But that's about it. Lets be real. Theo tried to trade Garza before he even got the job. He over valued Garza and thought he could get a Shields type deal. It wasn't happening then, it will never happen now that he's injured. If the cubs get a Myers type prospect for Garza, I'll pay you his salary. Save Jeff S and his one full season of 170 innings. Everyone else in that rotation is either coming off huge injury and bad seasons. That's not depth. Not at all.

Theo tried and is still trying to trade Garza. Had him traded last season to Texas for a package centered around Olt. Then Garza turned up injured and torpedoed the deal. That is just how it works in baseball had he not turned up lame he would be a Ranger right now and we wouldn't even be discussing it. His injury is not severe therefore it is not going to limit by very much what they are going to get in return assuming he is healthy. Also didn't say that they expected the return Shields got but something just south of that. Jeff S had an outstanding season last year as a starter and was a pretty damn good reliever before that. The question for everyone is can he repeat it? It isn't his fault it was his first full season at 170 innings it was the first time he was in the starting rotation. As far as the rest of the rotation none of them are coming in injured except Baker. The rest are quality depth for the Cubs on 1 year contracts. If they pitch and pitch well they will be flipped for prospects. Any true Cubs fan isn't expecting the team to compete next season looking more towards 2014 when much of the good specs in the minors will then be in the high minors.

The difference between Hardy and Barney Hardy is a multiple GG SS with power. On almost any other team than the cubs, he's a minor leaguer at best a bench player. Barney is a defensive specialist. He is very easily replaceable on the wavier if they could have gotten Porcello. So as far as Hardy and Johnson not being worth the package I suggested is comical.

I am not comparing Hardy and Barney. The proposed deal is not Hardy for Porcello. And It is not comical in suggesting that your not going to get Porcello and Castellanos for the package you suggest. That just isn't going to happen with how high the tigers are on Castellanos. They are as high on him as the O's are on Bundy.

If Soriono is a good defensive OF by your scouting every other scout in the mlb must be wrong. A few weeks of better defensive doesn't change a career in the contrary. It's not as if he's young and he's not playing in front of cubbies fans. He's horrible. A throw in player on frankly a team of throw-ins and prospects (be them promising). I love baseball so I'm rooting for the cubbies to be good. Great fans, the best park atmosphere but this this just delusional. Price for Baez and others? The rays have Hu (just about as good as Baez). Why trade for Baez? If they want to go for Price why not just spend for him as a FA rather than loose prospect just to lose Price any way when he's a FA?

Soriano is a good defensive OF by judging his advanced defensive stats. And he is not a throw in player and would make an excellent DH playing a few times a week in the field. He would be a better DH than several that are out there as we speak.

Baez was rated at #5 at the end of the year by Sickels for the top 50 and Hu wasn't even on the list. How is it that he is as good as Baez? And why trade for him? Because next season he is going to be to expensive for the Rays to keep with their limited payroll and he will be traded somewhere. Once he is traded he most likely will not make it to the FA market. And if the Cubs trade for him they will lock him up for mulitple years. The Cubs are a major market team who would be able to afford such a deal.

[hoosiercubsfan]

Save Jeff S and his one full season of 170 innings. Everyone else in that rotation is either coming off huge injury and bad seasons. That's not depth. Not at all.
?

To kind of follow up after giving this more thought. The reason I call it depth is because of what I have had to watch run out there as starting pitching the past few years. When you have had to sit through the likes of the Rodrigo Lopez and Ramon Ortiz's of the scrap heap. Having pitchers who have been actual legit starters would constitute depth in pitching. They are signed mostly on one year deals being used almost as a lottery ticket. With the hopes that a few of them become legit pitchers which are most likely flipped at the deadline. Or having the chance the first chance to sign them longer term if they do bounce back enough to warrant it.

[rkelly7]

To kind of follow up after giving this more thought. The reason I call it depth is because of what I have had to watch run out there as starting pitching the past few years. When you have had to sit through the likes of the Rodrigo Lopez and Ramon Ortiz's of the scrap heap. Having pitchers who have been actual legit starters would constitute depth in pitching. They are signed mostly on one year deals being used almost as a lottery ticket. With the hopes that a few of them become legit pitchers which are most likely flipped at the deadline. Or having the chance the first chance to sign them longer term if they do bounce back enough to warrant it.

Exactly, these signings by the Cubs (minus EJax) are in hopes of improving the minor league system by trading them at the deadline. Or to stay competitive if they start winning with some miracle, like us last year.

[hoosiercubsfan]

Exactly, these signings by the Cubs (minus EJax) are in hopes of improving the minor league system by trading them at the deadline. Or to stay competitive if they start winning with some miracle, like us last year.

Exactly. I am not delusional into thinking that the Cubs are going to contend for the division this coming season. They have a enough pitching for the upcoming season to at least run out a decent starter even if/when someone goes down during the season. They are still in process of building the farm system while trying to obtain cost controlled young players to add to the core. That is the reason I believe they are interested in bringing in Porcello. Getting him out of the AL and away from the butchers that are the Tiger's infield very likely would do him a world of good.

[mikeydady]

Don't disagree with the FA signings and they really do have some high prospects but besides Jeff they really don't have pitching. They need to trade for young pitching. This brings me back to my original question.

PS- Rizzo is good I like him too.