We have some huge wholes to fill. 2nd, 1st and LF. There really doesn't seem to be anything out there at 2nd base better than our current options. That's why I think we go after Mike Moustakas and Hosmer rather than Butler. I'd involve Hunter, Hammel and Gonz. Then shift the infield. Moustakas 3B, Manny SS, Hardy 2B, and Butler 1B with Davis at LF or DHing. I heard a lot of good things about Robinson's defense in the outfield. Heard he swings and misses a ton though overall lots of upside.
We can refill our pitching depth by getting Lindstrom back, Jair, Pelfery, Lannan, Brian Wilson would all be good fits. Of course, Hamilton and LaRoche would be like winning the lottery. Marcum and McCarthy would be make me happy too.
Besides KC I think Texas, LA Angels, Washington would all be good fits for a trade. Olt, Moreland, Trumbo, Alberto Callaspo, Morse, Espinosa, all would help.
If it is Tillman for Garrett Jones- No way- I've been a fan for a while but he is really inconsistent and not worth Tillman or Hammel. I'd do it for Gonz.
I also could see the Marlins and LA Dodgers as fits involving Dee Brown, Puig or Escobar.
Not too sure you want to move Hardy since he just won a Gold Glove.
"Party Hardy? Hardly.by Brandon Warne - November 9, 2012
Iím rarely much of a political person ó at least publicly ó but the hardest Iíve ever campaigned was for the Twins to NOT trade J.J. Hardy after the 2010 season. It wasnít as though I had any emotional connection to Hardy; the closest I ever came to even speaking to the guy was that I stood a few lockers away from him while I interviewed a few of his teammates.
But what I never really understood was what went wrong in that relationship. Hardy had a very good second half with the Twins. He was finally healthy and started hitting the ball better, and was essentially what the Twins and everyone could have dreamed for: a solid shortstop on both sides of the field.
But when whispers turned louder that Hardy was going to be dealt due to his upcoming salary hike via arbitration ó note: I still donít know if this is actually true ó that really struck a nerve within me. Why would you trade for a guy in the first place if you donít want him to Ďsucceedí and Ďearní a pay raise? Why not forget it altogether? And how about DONíT trade him for a couple *redacted* *redacted* redacted* middle relievers?
But what has passed is in the past; Hardy went on to have a phenomenal 2011 while the Twins withered in just the second year of their beautiful, taxpayer-provided Targe Mahal. But like Mark McGwire, Iím not here to talk about the past. Well, I sort of am, but Iíll still be talking about the same calendar year here.
Like a lot of people, I drafted Hardy in fantasy leagues this year almost solely on the basis of power. When Hardy is going right, his batting average isnít really a stat killer ó four seasons over .265 and better earlier in his career ó but he doesnít provide any steals, walks, or do a whole lot of anything else to endear himself to a fantasy owner. It really is a shame his defense canít be accounted in leagues, but thatís neither here nor there.
Zach Sanders released his 2012 shortstop rankings earlier this week, and Hardy ranked 17th. Based on what most paid for him, Iíd have to believe his season ending value of $8 probably comes up short, perhaps by as much as half what most paid for him. And while only Alcides Escobar ó strangely, the player the Brewers moved Hardy in favor of ó is truly surprising ahead of Hardy on the rankings, how would you have felt knowing Hardy was only going to be slightly more valuable than Mike Aviles when you drafted him? Probably not great.
But what truly made Hardy struggle this season? Some of his hallmarks were in place. After all, he still popped 22 home runs, scored and drove in his share of runs, and played his typical brand of excellent defense. His walk rate slipped again, but thatís been a four-year tumble dating back to his cataclysmic 2009 season with Milwaukee. With a wOBA of .290, something is/was clearly broken with Hardy. Even that 2009 season ó which resulted in him spending ti.me in Nashville, for crying out loud ó resulted in a .294 wOBA for Hardy, who turned 30 late last season.
Itís not entirely discouraging for Hardy to go through rough patches; he certainly regrouped from the last one in Milwaukee. But at age 30, heís angling towards that final slump at some point; some guys mysteriously vanish from the game long before their primes are up, doomed by a slowing bat, an aching back, or an amalgamation of those and other things. Hardy has long battled injuries of various severities; could he be terminal?
Now letís not get so morbid. Again, he was still relatively productive in the fantasy sense with the home runs, where he finished fourth overall. He still had to generate enough torque and strength to generate those, and I donít believe anything would more signify the Ďendí of Hardy than a dip in home run production. Defense would certainly be close, but he could hang around as a thumper after that if there was a need.
Hardyís BABIP declined for the third-straight season in 2012, checking in at a meager .253. Glancing at his batted-ball profile really doesnít tell us a whole lot, as Hardy hit 16.x percent line drives for the third consecutive season, and thereís little to no deviation between his popup, fly ball, and ground ball rates in that time frame. Essentially, heís been good, great, and brutal in a three-year stretch despite doing pretty much exactly what he does with the stick consistently. He did peak with a little more flyballs in 2011, and a little better HR luck on those bird chasers, but to me this is still a head-scratcher.
One thing opposing pitchers did to Hardy more in 2012 than any time before was attack him with two-seam fastballs (3 percent or more than any previous year). For a perceived pull hitter like Hardy, Iím not entirely sure what that would do for him, though I should think not a great deal. Another thing Hardy has added is a chase-happy approach since heís moved to Camden Yards, as heís chased 5 percent more pitches out of the strike zone in each season in Baltimore versus his career marks. That seems awfully tough to do not only statistically ó since career numbers take on that seasonís swings ó but also repetitively, since pitchers and coaches will pick up on these things.
But again we find a head-scratcher in that Hardy made the most contact of his career percentage-wise, yet his BABIP dropped despite similar rates. On sheer counting stats alone, Hardy hit 70 (!) more groundballs in 2012 than he did in 2011. And while he played 30 games more, his GB/GM rate ó hand figured by me ó was 1.53 in 2012 and 1.37 in 2011. So basically every five games resulted in another groundball for Hardy (note: grounders resulted in outs 76.2 percent of the time in 2012, and almost exactly the same in 2011). This certainly accounts for the 3 percent uptick in his rates, but he was still below his career mark anyway. Still, Hardy batted .245 on grounders in 2012 anyway, well above the league-average BABIP.
A bit further digging though seems to have uncovered the primary difference from Hardyís 2012 and 2011: pulling the ball. And thatís going to sound funny; Hardy has ALWAYS pulled the ball. But in 2011, Hardy pulled the ball like a monster: .424/.418/.867, good for a .545 (!) wOBA. He still pulled the ball quite well in 2012 ó .321/.321/.638 (.406 wOBA) ó but he was rather Ďhumaní in that aspect. It almost appears as if Hardy tried to spread the field again; this was a popular belief for his initial struggle in Minnesota, as since-deposed batting coach Joe Vavra has been vilified unfairly for trying to take pull power away from otherwise-inclined hitters. In 2011, Hardy completely ignored the right side of the field (.202 (!) wOBA to the opposite field), and centerfield wasnít much better at .275. In 2012, his marks were .258 and .229, but with much higher rates of instance (i.e. batted balls in that direction).
This leaves me puzzled as to where we go from here. Keep an eye on where Hardy ends up; I canít imagine he isnít being shopped by the Oís so Manny Machado can settle in at shortstop. Then again, thereís really nobody to play third base either, so they could go that way while Hardy *hopefully* rebuilds his value in the offseason. The home runs should continue to be there for Hardy for the near future, but I just donít think heís capable of repeating that monstrous pull split in another full season. If you can grab him late for power, heís worth it, but donít reach. Iím thinking itís pretty unlikely, though."
I feel now is a good time to trade him. His value is not at an all time high, but he is 30 and signed for an affordable 2 more years and I believe 14 million. That's a bargain especially considering there are no SS's on the free agent market. Maybe we could look into Justin Upton. I know Arizo0na is seeking a SS.
Think they'd be interested in that? I know they would prefer to have Andrus or Profar of the Rangers, but they don;t seem willing to part with those guys.
I'm not high on Garret Jones either. He may be a slight upgrade over Reynolds, but he only had a 1.9 WAR this year according to fangraphs. It would be nice to get a better player than that.
If we are going to give real value in a trade (Britton, Arrieta, Matusz, Strop, Hardy, Bundy Machado, Delmonico, Esposito, Avery, Schoop, Gausman), I really want to get a pretty good player back.
I'll trade for garret Jones if it requires giving up Jake Arrieta and a toss in, but I don't want to give up multiple guys to get a <2 WAR player.
We seem to have interest in Morse. A share of their TV money for Morse!?!!?
Manchester City - Baltimore Ravens - Baltimore Orioles - Brooklyn Nets
Damnit! the Nats signed Dan Haren. He was my #1 offseason target. Shooooooooooooooot.
The Nationals have reached an agreement to sign Dan Haren, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The deal will be for one year and $13MM, pending a physical.
Haren hit free agency after a trade that would have sent him to the Cubs in exchange for Carlos Marmol fell through last month, with the Cubs reportedly concerned about Haren's medicals. When the Angels couldn't work out a trade, they elected to decline the right-hander's $15.5MM club option, paying him a $3.5MM buyout instead. That $3.5MM, combined with the $13MM from Washington, will ensure that Haren ends up coming out ahead overall, earning a total of $16.5MM.
After posting a 3.33 ERA in 170 games over the course of five seasons from 2007 to 2011, Haren recorded the worst full-season ERA of his career in 2012, with a 4.33 mark. If the 32-year-old is healthy in 2013, he could bounce back and be a steal for the Nats on a one-year deal, though that's no sure thing.
The Nationals won't give up a draft pick for signing Haren, since the Angels didn't make the righty a qualifying offer. As Rosenthal tweets, the signing figures to take Washington out of the running for the top arms on the market, including Zack Greinke.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#Xqh4U0QD2TPzy4ox.99
The Nats just keep getting better, if they dont win the NL this year Davey Johnson needs to go.
The Truth Hurts.
I'm starting to get the feel we aren't making going to see a move.
day two of the meetings and some crazy stuff going on. We have been rumored to be in on so much stuff.. need to get the rumors out and see what really happens.
DD is suppose to meet with Nate M's agent tonight.
I still see us trying to fill the 1st base gap by trading some pitching. Not sure who it will be. I just don't see us signing LaRoche.
Looks like we met with Swishers agents today.
Last edited by bdiddy74; 12-04-2012 at 09:29 PM.