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View Poll Results: Where would you rank the Cubs minor league system?

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  • 7, 8 or 9

    16 28.07%
  • 10, 11 or 12

    31 54.39%
  • 13, 14 or 15

    10 17.54%
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  1. #1081
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    This is the same kid who put up a 50 BB/42 K line at 17 in the DSL. That is a huge part of why he is one of the very, very, very few 18 year old players the Cubs allowed to come to America to play.

    You're not going to get a good scouting report on Candelario online for at least another year or two...That said, here's his BP snippet in the preseason:
    Cool. Thanks a lot. I would have googled it but lazy and I have family that I don't want to talk too but have too over.

  2. #1082
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    Sickels also mentioned his plate discipline pre-season 2012:

    12) Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Grade C+: Outstanding performance in the Dominican Summer League. Scouting reports are good, too. Unfortunately DSL performance is not particularly predictive, but he has good plate discipline and scouts are impressed with him. May face position switch. Could rank much higher once we see him in North America.
    BA after his first HR at Boise:

    Candelario is a switch-hitter with a mature approach to hitting and power from both sides of the plate. He has work to do to remain at third base, but the Cubs have a potential breakout prospect on their hands here.
    The guy is universally praised for his plate approach in the small snippets you can find online...He's one of the hugest upside guys in the system. Said it yesterday but come 2016 he could be the guy we're talking about that is pushing Rizzo and not Vogelbach.

    Not out of nowhere either, as he was a 500K bonus baby when he signed IIRC.

  3. #1083
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Candelario, more than almost any other young player in the system, has consistently shown strong plate discipline despite being pushed up to leagues someone his age with his experience level would usually be overmatched in.

    I just have a problem with the way you're looking at this altogether. Why should what he did in the DSL be some benchmark for what he should do in America? His K rate barely rose 4% jumping up 2 levels of ball as one of the youngest players in the league....Why is this of any negative significance? This is a return to FanGraphs scouting...

    The only reason to knock Candelario right now is that so much can go wrong between Kane County and Chicago in the next 3-4 years. Other than that the guy has every sign of being one of the absolute best bat prospects in this system and someone who has barely scratched the surface.
    The slightly higher K rate was to be expected, it's the other two things that are a bit concerning. They concern me because Candelario is pretty much an all bat type of guy. If he's not providing value with his bat that's worrisome. The secondary reason for my concern is that given his abnormal patience for his age I thought he'd come over and have a considerably better season. I'm still very high on him. He's a guy I had inside my top 10 going into this year and I'll have right around 10-12 this year even after the farm has much improved.

  4. #1084
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    The slightly higher K rate was to be expected, it's the other two things that are a bit concerning.
    They're really not that concerning. Candelario right now is at 3B, so while the bat will carry him we're not talking a non-athlete. You overrate the crap out of the walk at that level of baseball, and holding an 18 year old jumping two levels to his DSL line as fully predictive of what he'd do...Sorry it's just a little amateur, and I mean that in the least offensive way that can be taken on the internet.

  5. #1085
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    They're really not that concerning. Candelario right now is at 3B, so while the bat will carry him we're not talking a non-athlete. You overrate the crap out of the walk at that level of baseball, and holding an 18 year old jumping two levels to his DSL line as fully predictive of what he'd do...Sorry it's just a little amateur, and I mean that in the least offensive way that can be taken on the internet.
    If I was expecting him to put up his DSL line that would be ridiculous, but I wasn't expecting that. I was expecting an OPS around .810 to .820 and an ISoD around .80-.85.

  6. #1086
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tryptamine View Post
    If I was expecting him to put up his DSL line that would be ridiculous, but I wasn't expecting that. I was expecting an OPS around .810 to .820 and an ISoD around .80-.85.
    Why are those numbers so important? What's wrong with the .65 IsoD he put up as an 18 year old playing 19 and 20 year olds during his first showcase in America in his first full pro season?

    I think too much of your analysis is based on things that don't matter...arbitrary walk totals and randomly selected expected OPS...push those aside and this is a very impressive long term prospect.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-29-2012 at 11:52 PM.

  7. #1087
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Why are those numbers so important? What's wrong with the .65 IsoD he put up as an 18 year old playing 19 and 20 year olds during his first showcase in America in his first full pro season?

    I think too much of your analysis is based on things that don't matter...arbitrary walk totals and randomly selected expected OPS...push those aside and this is a very impressive long term prospect.
    Again, I'm not saying I don't like him long term. I like him a lot, I just found his 2012 a little disappointing. You never want to see a guy who is going to rely almost entirely on his bat put up a mid .700OPS. If Vogelbach started in Daytona this year and put up a .741OPS I'd be quite disappointed.

  8. #1088
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    You never want to see a guy who is going to rely almost entirely on his bat put up a mid .700OPS.
    I like a little more context and information when looking at my 18 year old minor leaguers. Not all .700 OPSs are the same, especially at that level of ball.

  9. #1089
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    I like a little more context and information when looking at my 18 year old minor leaguers. Not all .700 OPSs are the same, especially at that level of ball.
    Hence why I mentioned the sub .400 SLG and a walk rate that decreased more than I expected it too.

  10. #1090
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tryptamine View Post
    Hence why I mentioned the sub .400 SLG and a walk rate that decreased more than I expected it too.
    Something that still makes zero sense to me. It's one of the most irrational knocks I've ever seen on an 18 year old with his track record of performance I have seen so far. It's a clear instance of the walk being way overvalued...

    He came across states and slugged 3 less XBHs than he did in the DSL in roughly the same number of plate appearances...Doing this two levels above the DSL as the youngest player on his team by a full year before Almora showed up.

  11. #1091
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    The only concern I have on Candelario is his ability to stick at 3B. Thats a legit question. His offensive numbers as an 18 year old don't bother me whatsoever.

  12. #1092
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    I'm already viewing him as a 1B prospect by the time his prospect-dom is all said and done. A switch hitting 1B who can hit for average, power, make consistent contact, and draw a good amount of walks....

  13. #1093
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    I'm already viewing him as a 1B prospect by the time his prospect-dom is all said and done. A switch hitting 1B who can hit for average, power, make consistent contact, and draw a good amount of walks....
    1B Chipper Jones.

    Will never be a thing the Cubs have a version of.

    And then. He made them pancakes.

  14. #1094
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    For more Candelario optimism...Chipper at 18 at the rookie ball level coming off being a tippy top draft pick put up a .529 OPS. He walked 14 times in 164 PAs (8.5% hem hem) and 25 Ks (15.3%)...He broke out big time the next year, something I don't expect Candelario to do but wouldn't be stunned by either.

    This guy Candelario seriously has every bit the ceiling of a Rizzo or Vogelbach (all around). He's the furthest away from it of the bunch THO, but Vogelbach is within the range for him to pass sooner.

  15. #1095
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tryptamine View Post
    The slightly higher K rate was to be expected, it's the other two things that are a bit concerning. They concern me because Candelario is pretty much an all bat type of guy. If he's not providing value with his bat that's worrisome. The secondary reason for my concern is that given his abnormal patience for his age I thought he'd come over and have a considerably better season. I'm still very high on him. He's a guy I had inside my top 10 going into this year and I'll have right around 10-12 this year even after the farm has much improved.
    But but but... isnt it fairlylogical for a player in his first fullseason of baseball in a much more demanding atmosphere to fall off. Hell look at those that make it to the majors. The Majority fall off. I think Candymans first 2 months is a true indicator of his ability rather than his last.

    His numbers were damn good until he went into the slump. Yet, looking at his numbers he still wasnt overmatch by higher levels of experience. This to me is an indication of him getting tired, rather than being worried.

    If he started to strikeout at a insane rate in addition to his bb%(was not bad by any means) dropping then i would worry. As it stands now thre only knock on candy is his defense. Which is usually the case at such a early stage of any players career.

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