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View Poll Results: Where would you rank the Cubs minor league system?

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  • 7, 8 or 9

    16 28.07%
  • 10, 11 or 12

    31 54.39%
  • 13, 14 or 15

    10 17.54%
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  1. #901
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    Eh, I don't think you can justify putting Almora ahead of Baez. The young man had 2 total walks in something like 145 PA. Sure, sample size alarms are blasting, but they are going to be doing that for all of the good numbers you'd throw back at me like his .320 BA. But 2 walks in more than one month is alarming.

    For me, I think I'd probably say Vizcainio is my top prospect. Easily the most advanced and has the longest track record, and I'm definitely in the camp that leans more toward the TJ surgery being a small blessing rather than a huge red flag, especially since we got him months after the surgery.

    I think mine goes:

    1. Vizcaino
    2. Baez
    3. Soler (would be higher if he'd played more)
    4. Almora
    5. (distantly) Vogelbach

    After that, who knows. A lot of interesting guys with a lot of warts too. Jackson, Vitters, Szczur, Lake, Villanueva all would round out my top 10 in some order, but I still think the sample sizes on players like Maples, Underwood, Panigua etc. is too low and they're so far away to seriously consider them at this point. I imagine the mid season list will shake things up quite a bit.

    OOTP TKO League Milwaukee Brewers 2010-2032:
    2011-1655, .549 Win %
    10 NL Central Titles, 2 Wild Card 12 Total Playoff Appearances
    1 World Series Title (2021)



    Now you can luxuriate in a nice jail cell, but if your hand touches metal, I swear by my pretty floral bonnet: I will end you.

    -Malcolm Reynolds


  2. #902
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    Sample and "you're talking about walk totals in rookie ball" alarms are blaring.

    Heavy emphasis on proximity there.

  3. #903
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    I tend to agree with Str1fe5's thinking on Vizcaino.

    I love me some Baez, but color me unimpressed with his Daytona and AFL numbers. I'm all for trading Baez while he's hot.

    1. Almora
    2. Soler
    3. Vizcaino
    4. Baez
    Last edited by Theriot2; 12-23-2012 at 10:50 AM.

    And...here...we...go...

  4. #904
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    Quote Originally Posted by Str1fe5 View Post
    Eh, I don't think you can justify putting Almora ahead of Baez. The young man had 2 total walks in something like 145 PA. Sure, sample size alarms are blasting, but they are going to be doing that for all of the good numbers you'd throw back at me like his .320 BA. But 2 walks in more than one month is alarming.

    For me, I think I'd probably say Vizcainio is my top prospect. Easily the most advanced and has the longest track record, and I'm definitely in the camp that leans more toward the TJ surgery being a small blessing rather than a huge red flag, especially since we got him months after the surgery.

    I think mine goes:

    1. Vizcaino
    2. Baez
    3. Soler (would be higher if he'd played more)
    4. Almora
    5. (distantly) Vogelbach

    After that, who knows. A lot of interesting guys with a lot of warts too. Jackson, Vitters, Szczur, Lake, Villanueva all would round out my top 10 in some order, but I still think the sample sizes on players like Maples, Underwood, Panigua etc. is too low and they're so far away to seriously consider them at this point. I imagine the mid season list will shake things up quite a bit.
    I had Almora ahead of Baez until Baez reached Daytona. And if you don't want to give Baez credit for reaching a level he pretty clearly wasn't yet ready for(understandable though I'd disagree with it) then it's pretty easy to have him ahead of Baez.

    I mean Baez's plate discipline is arguably worse than Vitters' was at the same stage. Not crazy to have a more well-rounded talent who's not too far behind developmentally ahead of him.


  5. #905
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jilly Bohnson View Post
    I had Almora ahead of Baez until Baez reached Daytona. And if you don't want to give Baez credit for reaching a level he pretty clearly wasn't yet ready for(understandable though I'd disagree with it) then it's pretty easy to have him ahead of Baez.

    I mean Baez's plate discipline is arguably worse than Vitters' was at the same stage. Not crazy to have a more well-rounded talent who's not too far behind developmentally ahead of him.
    You can make the same argument about plate discipline and Almora at a similar age too (obviously a year behind). I just think that Baez has shown more and has developed a little farther than Almora at this point.

    @ Gato, sample size is a problem with all three of everyone's favorite prospects in the system currently. There's no way to get around it.

    OOTP TKO League Milwaukee Brewers 2010-2032:
    2011-1655, .549 Win %
    10 NL Central Titles, 2 Wild Card 12 Total Playoff Appearances
    1 World Series Title (2021)



    Now you can luxuriate in a nice jail cell, but if your hand touches metal, I swear by my pretty floral bonnet: I will end you.

    -Malcolm Reynolds


  6. #906
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    Baez also had strikeouts to go with his lack of walks, Almora only had a lack of walks. The emphasis on walks as the only aspect of plate discipline is really throwing the whole conversation off.

    There's also a difference between 400+ PAs this year for Baez being a small sample size and the sub-200 over 6 weeks or so for Almora and Soler. There is enoug sample there to know that the low levels could K Baez, and it shot up once he saw High A and AA (AFL comp is mostly AA guys) pitching.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-23-2012 at 11:04 AM.

  7. #907
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    Quote Originally Posted by Str1fe5 View Post
    You can make the same argument about plate discipline and Almora at a similar age too (obviously a year behind). I just think that Baez has shown more and has developed a little farther than Almora at this point.

    @ Gato, sample size is a problem with all three of everyone's favorite prospects in the system currently. There's no way to get around it.
    I don't really think that's true. There've never been questions about Almora's discipline except by people who just look at his BR page and assume it's an issue.

    And I think Baez has shown more too, but I don't think it's so much that you couldn't put Almora above him.


  8. #908
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    Exactly. The whole post is spot on actually, but I do not understand the emphasis on numbers at such a low level of ball.
    Even if you want to put zero emphasis on numbers, I've yet to see a single major talent evaluator in the minor leagues put Almora or Soler over Baez. And this includes Keith Law who was essentially blowing Almora during the draft.
    #WhyNot?

    People ask me, "Why here? Why Kentucky?", I said "Why not"? It can be done here. It will be done here. Lay the foundation. Recruit and develop. Prepare to win. Day by day. Play by play. A new era of high performance. Why Kentucky? Why not? -Mark Stoops

  9. #909
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    I don't want to put zero emphasis on numbers as that is equally ridiculous. I question using walks as the definition of plays discipline at such a low level of the minors, which requires looking at numbers. Prospectus has Almora over Baez, though I really don't care for that stuff. The opinions are always good to hear and have, but those people are wrong often enough where I know not to treat their rankings as gospel.

    The fact that Law reeeeeaaalllly liked Almora is far more significant to me than where he chooses to rank him on a list that will look very different by midseason anyway. The lists are more a form of organization than they are the final word anyway.
    Last edited by SenorGato; 12-23-2012 at 11:11 AM.

  10. #910
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    Dare I say with the change of regime in the FO some of these young guys are told about adjustments they are going to have to make but, success by all means is the key? I mean I understand the stress on them not taking walks but, if their abilities at this point are to tear the cover off the ball then wouldn't you just want them to sustain some success to get the gears going?

    I have a hard time coming up with a top 5 but, if I just use from a super star electric player stand point then I come out with Baez every time. Almora however is my safe bet and then not trailing far is Soler who I could think max out on both of them. Guy is a freak.

  11. #911
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    Quote Originally Posted by SenorGato View Post
    I don't want to put zero emphasis on numbers as that is equally ridiculous. Prospectus has Almora over Baez, though I really don't care for that stuff. The opinions are always good to hear and have, but those people are wrong often enough where I know not to treat their rankings as gospel.

    The fact that Law reeeeeaaalllly liked Almora is far more significant to me than where he chooses to rank him.
    Agreed, but at the same time, Law also really loved Baez, as he and Goldstein had a 20 minute discussion last fall about how amazing Baez is. So you can play both games.

    As much as I really think Keith Law is a poor talent evaluator because his only care seems to be "stars!!" and, essentially, he ignores everyone else, seeing him essentially gush over our two top prospects is a nice sign that these guys have that upper echelon "it". Which I would agree is the most important thing of all.
    #WhyNot?

    People ask me, "Why here? Why Kentucky?", I said "Why not"? It can be done here. It will be done here. Lay the foundation. Recruit and develop. Prepare to win. Day by day. Play by play. A new era of high performance. Why Kentucky? Why not? -Mark Stoops

  12. #912
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    I want to put Soler #1 because I think he is an absolute monster, but I'd like to see another half season to justify it.

    And...here...we...go...

  13. #913
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    The good news is this year will be such a HUGE step for this farm in terms of seeing where we really stand. These kids will be getting meaningful bats and full seasons to start to display and show their prospect status.

    And it helps we are also about to pick #2 in the draft. I just hope at that spot we have a can't miss spec whether it's another bat or a much needed arm. I just want whatever guy is the absolute best at the position could care less about org. need.

  14. #914
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    Quote Originally Posted by 1908_Cubs View Post
    Agreed, but at the same time, Law also really loved Baez, as he and Goldstein had a 20 minute discussion last fall about how amazing Baez is. So you can play both games.

    As much as I really think Keith Law is a poor talent evaluator because his only care seems to be "stars!!" and, essentially, he ignores everyone else,
    seeing him essentially gush over our two top prospects is a nice sign that these guys have that upper echelon "it". Which I would agree is the most important thing of all.
    I can imagine someone asking him about Ben Wells.. He probably has no idea who Ben Wells even is.

  15. #915
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    Quote Originally Posted by northsider View Post
    The good news is this year will be such a HUGE step for this farm in terms of seeing where we really stand. These kids will be getting meaningful bats and full seasons to start to display and show their prospect status.

    And it helps we are also about to pick #2 in the draft. I just hope at that spot we have a can't miss spec whether it's another bat or a much needed arm. I just want whatever guy is the absolute best at the position could care less about org. need.
    Unless someone like Austin Meadows absolutely, positively, murders H.S. baseball this year without a single hiccup, I think the best players this draft end up being the college arms. Appel, Stanek, Manaea, Whitson.....they've all got TORP stuff in them. And in the case that Meadows absolutely tears it up, he'll probably go ahead of us anyways.
    #WhyNot?

    People ask me, "Why here? Why Kentucky?", I said "Why not"? It can be done here. It will be done here. Lay the foundation. Recruit and develop. Prepare to win. Day by day. Play by play. A new era of high performance. Why Kentucky? Why not? -Mark Stoops

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