2012 Minor League Thread 10.0

[1908_Cubs]

Here's the quote.

Sounds like a Scott Baker type of arm if everything goes well, though I think Baker's a little overrepresented by his WAR as far as stature is concerned. I think a mid-rotation 3-4 is a fair projection for his ceiling.

Yeah, that's about where I'd expect him to be.

[KyleJRM]

Hitting 93mph as an 18 year old gives me the confidence that with a little seasoning, conditioning, and a little more growing into his body, 93 consistently is obtainable.

Anything's possible. Pitchers are weird. But velocity is just as likely to go down as up in that age range.

[SenorGato]

True...while his conditioning and strength should go up, so will his innings and the level of competition...

[JBears79]

I think it's too early to be projecting a guy like Blackburn already. He's young, has good mechanics and polished control. His strength and conditioning will get better as he matures and he still has room to fill out. I could see him adding some mph on his fastball easily.

I think its a rather poor idea to start projecting pitchers a when there that young because you really just don't know what will happen.

[SenorGato]

You could just change the projection if something new comes up.

[KyleJRM]

*shrug* I'm fine either way. I don't care for doing that much projecting, because it usually ends up being irrelevant, but if others enjoy it, I'm sure there's something there.

I just figure I'll pay attention to which of the live arms turned into something when they hit AA.

[JBears79]

You could just change the projection if something new comes up.

Well yeah... but I just don't like jumping to early assumptions on young pitchers or even hitters for that matter. I would rather wait a year or two before projecting.

[SenorGato]

NSBB doing a top 30...through 16:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples
#10: Josh Vitters
#11: Pierce Johnson
#12: Junior Lake
#13: Jeimer Candelario
#14: Duane Underwood
#15: Matt Szczur
#16: Arismendy Alcantara

[WOwolfOL]

Oh it should look so wonderful after the draft.

Also, Law said "IIRC" so I take it with a grain of salt, regarding Blackburn's velo.

[cubsbullsbears2]

That NSBB list is nearly spot on to mine.

[Brad IBCB]

I fully support Soler at number two, ahead of Almora.

[SenorGato]

There's a decent case that Soler should be #1, but we do not know him well enough yet.

[Jack the Ripper]

Soler already has a major league build. Physically he's way ahead of everyone else on the list.

[terencem]

Soler already has a major league build. Physically he's way ahead of everyone else on the list.

It wouldn't surprise me if Soler and Almora reach the majors before Baez. I think Baez is always going to be the pick of scouts who love tools because his bat speed and power are so rare for a guy who has middle infield potential. Just for reference, I think Jason Parks wrote an article a while back that has re-thought the way he ranks prospects after evaluating how often high risk prospects bust and that factored into the BP ranking.

I really don't like lists outside of Law, Sickels, BP, and BA because they're not just relying on stats and their own eyes: they're also getting reports from scouts and front office employees all over the game. They have a reach that is very deep and wide. I really have a distaste for aggregators other than just appreciating a different opinion.