NBA ReDraft Playoffs 2nd Round: 1) Westwood vs. 4) Bondi Beach

[phlp_bj]

Welcome to the 2012 NBA ReDraft voting process. The redraft is exactly how it sounds. The rosters of every NBA team are cleared and then drafted again from scratch. Posters from the site draft full rosters under a salary cap and then there is a voting process to make the playoffs. We are now in the playoffs and the head to head matchups have begun. Please remember to vote for the roster and write-up you believe would win a 7 game series. Also remember that every player is considered as healthy for these playoffs. Thank you and enjoy the playoffs!

Westwood:
PG: George Hill | Kirk Hinrich | Alexey Shved
SG: Wesley Matthews | Daequan Cook
SF: Lebron James | Martell Webster
PF: Ryan Anderson | J.J. Hickson
C: Marcus Camby | Timofey Mozgov | Darko Milicic

Bondi Beach:
PG: Kyrie Irving / Shaun Livingston
SG: Thabo Sefolosha / JJ Redick
SF: Mike Dunleavy / Linas Kleiza / Aminu
PF: Zach Randolph / Jason Smith
C: Marcin Gortat / Ian Mahinmi / Ben Wallace

Westwood Writeup

Congrats to MHC, PSK and Swashcuff for advancing to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

Bondi Beach possesses a solid offensive trio in Kyrie, Z-Bo and Gortat. Defensively, they don’t really measure up to their offensive standards. Gortat is an ok shot blocker but he is not an elite overall defender. He has definitely improved ever since playing with Nash in Phoenix, and while Kyrie is a great up-and-coming PG he doesn’t possess nearly the same playmaking abilities that Nash does. Gortat will have to work harder to create scoring opportunities for himself in this series, something we have yet to see much out of the Polish Hammer.

His frontcourt teammate, Zach Randolph, had a poor year shooting wise in 2012, posting a pedestrian 50.0 TS% and 46.7eFG%. Yes he wasn’t healthy last year, but you cannot simply look past an injury as serious as a torn ligament (MCL) in the knee. Many big men do not fully recover from such an injury and we saw his production decrease heavily after the knee surgery, in particular during the playoffs. Randolph has never been a good defender so we expect Ryan Anderson to have a great series. Ryan Anderson is a great offensive rebounder and shooter, and is much more mobile than Z-Bo. His ability to play the PnR with either Lebron or Hill will give him easier looks on offense. At best both players will get theirs but coming back from a knee injury, Randolph may have trouble being as efficient as his team will need him to be in order to advance to the next round because one thing Randolph loves doing is putting them shots up. One more thing, should Randolph start to get hot we will assign Lebron James to defend him. By doing this, Ryan Anderson will switch to the likes of Thabo or Dunleavy, who will be camping in the corner for the spot-up 3.

The third head of this offensive trio is 2012 ROY Kyrie Irving. He showed great poise last year, particularly in the 4th quarter where he was among the most clutch players (You may see the other team mention this a lot ). In their one meeting last year, Hill held Kyrie to 42.1 FG% and forced 3 TOs. I am aware it is only a 1 game sample, but Kyrie showed a lot of inconsistency and poor decision-making at times during the regular season. Being a young player, sometimes he wants to do too much and is prone to commit stupid mistakes. Last season Kyrie had a 1.74 AST/TO ratio and 3.1 TO per game. To put those number into perspective, Gortat’s former teammate Nash had a 2.89 AST/TO ratio and 3.7 TO per game. These turnovers will come back to bite Bondi Beach because Lebron is one of the best, if not the best, running the fastbreak. Running alongside speedy players such as Matthews and Hill will allow Westwood to get some separation. George Hill is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and will force plenty of turnovers. The IUPUI alumni allowed 0.62 Points Per Play (PPP) in isolation plays last year and 0.79 PPP overall, 91th best amongst all NBA players.

The other two starters for Bondi Beach are interesting to analyze. Mike Dunleavy had a great year shooting wise but doesn’t offer much outside of that. He is a poor defender and is better suited as a sixth man because his defense will get exposed by the likes of Lebron and Wesley. Bondi Beach might decide to roll with Reddick in their starting 5 switching Thabo to SF, but it won’t make much difference because Reddick isn’t much of a defender either. Thabo will have one job: to guard Lebron. We saw them match up already in the greatest stage in the world, the NBA Finals. Lebron had an amazing Finals performance averaging 28.6 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 7.4 AST while shooting 47.2% from the field and 82.6% from the free throw line. They won’t be able to stop Lebron in this series, the 2012 Finals MVP defeated a much better defense in the Finals so we don’t expect anything different in this playoff series.

The bench is another factor in this series. Outside of JJ Reddick, Bondi Beach’s bench does not scare anyone. There is no reliable scoring in the frontcourt with Jason Smith and Ian Mahinmi. On the other hand, JJ Hickson is more than capable of relieving both Camby and Anderson, and provide scoring off the bench. Kirk Hinrich will see a lot of time at SG in order to guard Bondi Beach’s only option off the bench in Reddick.

This is bound to be a great series and I have nothing but respect towards the GMs of Bondi Beach. May the best team win.

Bondi Beach Writeup

Kyrie Irving v. George Hill
Like our last match up, we are pleased to see that we once again have a significant edge at PG. While Hill is an average defender, he simply does not have the lateral quickness to stay in front of quick guards like Irving. Last year Hill showed he was effective defender against the pick and roll but struggled to defend the spot up shot. Last season Hill gave up close to a full point per possession on spot up shots and we plan to take advantage of that. Irving shot close to 40% from beyond the arch last year so it is imperative that Hill gets out on him but when he does, Irving has the quickness and speed to get by him and beat him to the basket. On defense we admit Irving is not a good defender at all but at the same time he is simply not going up against a strong offensive player to make any significant impact on the series. Hill shot 36% from beyond the arch last season which is not a good enough number to warrant Irving playing him tight on the perimeter. We expect Hill will post his typical averages in this series and not much more than that as his past track record has yet to suggest otherwise
Advantage: Bondi Beach

Thabo Sefolosha v. Lebron James:
I am not going to try and argue we have the answer to shutting down Lebron James in this series; that is simply an argument that we are not prepared to make. With that being said, we do feel that we have a perimeter defender in Thabo who at the very least can help slow him down. Thabo has the right combination of agility, quickness and size on defense to stay with Lebron and contain him as much as possible. The one benefit we have with Lebron in this series is the lack of perimeter scorers on Westwood. On offense, Thabo will be expected to knock down his outside shots. Last season he shot 43% from the outside so we feel confident in his abilities in that area.
Advantage: Westwood

Mike Dunleavy v. Wes Matthews:
Like our PG match up, we feel very confident about this one as well. Last year Wesley Matthews was simply an average basketball player. He struggled at times offensively and it showed in his percentages. Last year he shot a .539 TS% and a .496 eFG%; both numbers are below the league average. He also posted a very pedestrian 14.1 PER last season after having much more productive seasons in his first two years in the league. Perhaps the most alarming number about Matthews last season was his struggles to hit anything inside the arch. Last year, Matthews shot 43.4% on 2s which was the worst percentage amongst all shooting guards. He simply has difficulty finishing anything near the rim and converting on much of anything around the key. He is also is not a threat to get to the line either (averaging only 2.3 attempts per game) which makes us even more comfortable about this match up.
On the other side we have the extremely efficient Mike Dunleavy. Last year Dunleavy posted terrific shooting percentages posting a .597 TS% while converting on 40% of his 3 point attempts. Dunleavy also happens to be a good defender as well as evidence by the fact that the Bucks gave up 5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Also last year, Dunleavy held his check to a 11.7 PER last season and is more than capable of holding down the one dimensional Matthews.
Advantage: Even

Zach Randolph v. Ryan Anderson
This is where we win the match up. No matter how you cut it, both Randolph and Gortat are going to post big numbers in this series. We will get to Anderson’s offense shortly but we have to discuss just how badly Anderson will get abused in the post in this series. Last year, Anderson simply could not defend the post for the life of him. He gave up 0.96 PPP on post up plays which was good for 220th best in the league and he is going up against one of the league’s best low post scorers in Randolph. We plan to get Randolph involved early in the offense and get him his looks against Anderson throughout the game. We feel that Anderson simply does not have the size and strength to bang with ZBO or Gortat down low. Also consider that Anderson is poor rebounder as evidence by his low defensive rebound rate which placed him 61st amongst power forward. Also it just so happens that both Gortat and ZBo are strong offensive rebounders which should create a lot of second chance opportunities for our team. Defensively we will be putting Gortat on Anderson. Yes Anderson was a very good offensive player last season but he also does not have the luxury of having Dwight Howard anymore. Also most of Anderson’s offensive plays are off spot up shots (35%). But it just so happens we have Gortat to defend Anderson in this area and last season Gortat posted terrific numbers against spot up shooters yielding only .81 PPP. We feel we have a terrific player in Gortat to neutralize the effectiveness of the spot up shooting Anderson.
Advantage: Bondi Beach

Marcin Gortat v. Marcus Camby
As we just showed, Ryan Anderson leaves a lot to be desired defensively. So no matter who he defends (Gortat or ZBO), that player is sure to have a big series. In this match up, we have a talented two way center going up against the aging and slow footed Marcus Camby. Yes Camby is a good post defender but it is the rest of his defensive game that is the issue. We plan to get Camby to defend a lot of P&R plays due to the massive success Gortat has in that area. Last year Gortat posted 1.23 PPP last season on P&R which was good enough for 30th best in the league. Irving also happens to be a great pick and roll guard which makes this match up all that much more exciting an in our favor due to fact that Irving can come close to replicating the same success Gortat had in Phoenix. We also expect that Gortat will see lots of opportunities on isolation plays where he had good success last season. Additionally; Gortat also happens to be a great rebounder finishing among the top 12 amongst centers in defensive rebound rate so we know we our rim is well protected. Defensively we are putting ZBO on Camby which we are very pleased about. ZBO continues to improve as a defender but will have an easy time with the offensively limited Marcus Camby.
Advantage: Bondi Beach

Bench
We have a great sixth man in Redick who back-ups Thabo (similar situation to Thabo’s real life situation in OKC). Redick was simply fantastic last season on offense. He shot 41.8 percent on 3s and as Per Hollinger he actually became a great ball handler as well.” At this point he's almost a point guard, ranking fifth among shooting guards in pure point rating while sporting one of the lowest turnover rates at his position”. Redick is really the big difference on the bench in this series as he is the only on either team capable of making a significant impact in the series. Additionally we also have Ian Mahinmi who was very avlauble to Dallas’s defense after the loss of Tyson Chandler. He is capable of guarding any big on Westwood. We also have Jason Smith at our disposable in this series who posted 10 and 6 last year for the Hornets. Kleiza and Livingston round out the bench and both offer additional bench scoring and defense. Westwood conversely has Cook and Webster on the wings that were not even a part of their respective team’s rotations. I don’t know who is going to step up for Westwood in this one as nobody is as consistent offensive threat on their bench.
Advantage: Bondi Beach

Overall we feel we have the team that can knock Lebron and company put of the playoffs. We have two low post scorers in Gortat and ZBO who will dominate the low post and the rebounding differential in the series. We also have the perimeter defender in Thabo to slow down Lebron and a star PG in Irving that can create offense and take the game in his hands if need be.

Good Luck Westwood.

[PatsSoxKnicks]

I'll continue with our write-up tomorrow when I have a bit more time.

[phlp_bj]

bump

[Mile High Champ]

1800 Stfu is once again trolling the crap out of any PSD game match up I have ever been a part of. He only votes in the match up I am a part of and never once has posted an explanation for his vote. I request his vote be ignored due to clear evidence of foul play as this is simply complete BS.

[Raidaz4Life]

I'll take Bondi because I really like the build. It reminds me a lot of Hartford's and those are two of my favorite teams in this.

[Swashcuff]

1800 Stfu is once again trolling the crap out of any PSD game match up I have ever been a part of. He only votes in the match up I am a part of and never once has posted an explanation for his vote. I request his vote be ignored due to clear evidence of foul play as this is simply complete BS.

Dude really needs to get a life

[Mr. Baller]

Except he voted in the other matchup...

[roshan3ai]

I think he's voted in both my matchups...

[Mile High Champ]

Except he voted in the other matchup...

For the first time he did. He likely saw my complaint in the lounge thread. I have seen this happen way too often already so I know it's happening.

[DR_1]

Bondi in 7. Too big of a paint advantage for me to ignore.

[baller101200]

Great move putting Thabo on Lebron, but he still butt****s this series. Really like Beach's team though.

[knicks=love]

Bondi didn't congratulate Westwood

[PatsSoxKnicks]

I'm going to address a couple of things mentioned in the Westwood write-up. First, Kyrie isn't really turnover prone as they're trying to suggest. Using assist to turnover ratio doesn't really say much (it's not a good stat but I won't get into why) but if you look at Kyrie's turnover ratio, it's actually above average.

http://www.hoopdata.com/passingstats...2&gp=0&mins=10

The league average turnover ratio for PGs is 17.47% of all possessions ending in a turnover. Kyrie's turnover ratio is less at 16.11. PGs like Deron, Rondo and Nash turned the ball over on a greater % of their possessions than Kyrie did. If you aren't concerned with turnovers for those PGs, then why should you be concerned about Kyrie turning the ball over? And again, he's above average in turnover ratio for PGs.

The other thing I would like to address is the fact that Mike Dunleavy is a poor defender. This isn't true and its supported by all of the numbers. Last year, Dunleavy ranked 218th in points per play allowed, which is not great but its not bad/poor either. This is middle of the pack. He was also middle of the pack in isolation defense and guarding spot up shooters. However, using just 1 year isn't a big enough sample. When you look at Dunleavy's 10-11 stats, he finished 188th overall in ppp allowed, again middle of the pack and his iso and post up d were also middle of the pack. But he proved to be very good at guarding the P&R in 10-11, ranking 37th in the league. He was also very good at guarding players coming off screens, ranking 29th and finally, was in the top half of the league in guarding spot up shooters. In 09-10, Dunleavy based on synergy's numbers was a flat out good defender. He ranked 91st overall in ppp allowed on defense, ranked 119 in isolation defense, 14th in guarding the P&R, 85th in guarding post ups, 7th in guarding players coming off screens and was middle of the pack in guarding spot up shooters. So to sum it up, over the last 3 years, he's been an average defender who at times is capable of being above average. He has been very good at defending players coming off screens (which I'm sure Westwood will have Wes doing) and he's been decent on guarding the spot up shooters.

The synergy data on Dunleavy is also supported by the counterpart data on 82games. Over the last 3 years, Dunleavy has allowed a PER of 12.4 this year, 12.9 in 2010-11 and 12.4 in 2009-10. This is pretty consistently good. Obviously, its partly a product of the wings being weaker overall then other positions but he'll be guarding wings so thats irrelevant.

Finally, Dunleavy's defense is supported by his +/- numbers, whether its adjusted or not. For those who don't trust RAPM (Adjusted +/-), Dunleavy's raw +/- on-off court defensive numbers have been good over the last 3 years. This year, the Bucks were 5.71 points per 100 possessions better defensively when Dunleavy was on the court as opposed to when he was on the bench (team had a 101 DRtg when he was on the court vs. a 107 DRtg when he was on the bench). Last year, on a different team, Dunleavy's Pacers were 3.87 points per 100 possessions better defensively when he was on the court vs. when he was on the bench. And the year before, the Pacers were basically even when Dunleavy was on the floor vs. on the bench (team was .34 pp100p worse when he was on the court, basically break even). As for Dunleavy's RAPM, also known as adjusted +/- (because it adjusts for teammates and opponents), if you use the less stable version of 2012 RAPM (the margin of error will be higher), Dunleavy was a +0.3 on defense (+ is good defense, - is bad defense). If you use the more stable version of 2012 RAPM, which uses 2011 as a prior, Dunleavy was +1.3 on defense. In 2010-11, Dunleavy was +1.6 on defense and in 09-10, Dunleavy was +0.4 on defense.

The thing to keep in mind is that Dunleavy changed teams from the Pacers in 10-11 to the Bucks this past season. And he managed to have a positive impact on BOTH teams defensively. This is telling because his teammates would've changed and yet he's still a positive player on defense. So there's no, "well he played with so and so, so thats why his +/- is good" because he has had different teammates.

In addition, Dunleavy takes a ton of charges so while he might not pile up blocks or steals, he does pile up the charges.

Via Hollinger's player profiles who scouts each player and gives an eye test to go with the stats- "Defensively, Dunleavy also had renewed juice. He's not a gambler, finishing in the bottom 10 at his spot in both blocks and steals per minute, but opposing small forwards had just a 10.1 PER against him according to 82games.com and the Bucks gave up 5.6 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. While the Bucks monitored his matchups and rarely let him within hailing distance of an elite scorer, he has shown he can defend the 3 position competently."

Cumulatively, between all these stats, it's unfair to call Dunleavy a poor defender when he's had decent individual defensive numbers as well as his team being better defensively when he's on the court.

Westwood is wrong in saying Dunleavy is a poor defender. Early in his career he was but he's improved on that end to the point where he's at the very least average defensively but more accurately, above average.

[Mile High Champ]

Anyone who voted, can you at least defend your vote.

Baller what about you, I know you have hated our team from the start but maybe you care to share.

[Mile High Champ]

Bloomis and thornz votes do not count due to the 100 post rule making it now 11-7.