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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    You can call my forumula pointless or anything else you wish.

    (Walk*0.25)+(Single *0.25)+(Double*0.5)+(Triple*0.75)+(HR*1)
    _________________________________________
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    But don't you dare say it ignores walks.


    Basiacally my forumula tells what a players bat is worth per plate appearance.

    If the player's PoA is 0.250, then the player is worth a single every at bat.

    The forumula pretty much tells you at what rate the player got to 1st, second, third and home when put into a forumula.

    Once you find out a player's PoA per plate appearance, you just need to find out how many plate appearances the player averaged per game.

    Multiply he player's PoA with the average plate appearance per game and you'll see what the player's production would average out per game.

    Cabrera averaged a PoA of 0.6816768 per game, or in other words, Cabrera's bat was worth somewhere between a double and a triple a game considering 0.500 would be averaging a double.

    Take the player's PoA per game and multiply it by the number of games the player played and it will tell you around how many runs the player should score in that season.

    Cabrera PoA for the entire season was 109.74513, he scored 109 runs. pretty damn accurate there.

    Of course scoring runs or producing rbi's has factors like how your team does as well. Like I said, the forumula would say around how many runs the player should score that season.

    Then there are cases like Andrew Jones, he scored 103 runs. Looking at his batting statistics this season do you believe his bat was worth 103 runs.

    The PoA was 0.1294835 per bat, 0.5570987 per game and over the season, his PoA was 90.249989.

    This means Andrew Jones SHOULD have scored closer to 90 runs on the season. Andrew Jones' bat was worth 90 runs this season.

    Again, the formula doesn't put a value on the hits themselves, it just tells you at what rate did the player reach all 4 bases when added up.

    You first find out the player's PoA, then you multiply it by the player's average plate appearances per game, and you'll find out what the player's bat's value is per game. Then you take that number and multiply it by the number of games played and you'll see how many runs the player's bat was worth over an entire season. Usually the PoA of a player for the season is near 5 runs compared to how many runs they actually scored.

    You can use PoA to estimate how many runs a player would score in a season.

    Go ahead, pick any player from this season and find out how accurate or inaccurate it is compared to how many runs they scored on the season.
    Again, why in the world are you dividing your stat by the # of Plate appearances, only to have to do more math to get back to the number you were originally at?

    It's like you're adding more steps to get nowhere just to make your stat seem more complicated.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    You just changed the meaning of your stat. If you want to know how many runs they created, look at wRC+.

    I dont know for sure, but Im fairly certain you stat does not tell us anything of value, or is very accurate.
    Well I never said it valued a single the same as a walk. Go look when I first talked about PoA. I all along said, when you reach first base you are 25% around the bases, second base, 50% around the bases, third base 75% around the bases, And finally when you reach home, you are fully around the bases.

    Therefor hitting a single or taking a walk, both have the player ending up at first.

    I understand that you disagree with it all but i'd like an actual example before people say that it is wrong. If you believe so, prove it, don't just say it's wrong show me how.

  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Driven View Post
    Again, why in the world are you dividing your stat by the # of Plate appearances, only to have to do more math to get back to the number you were originally at?

    It's like you're adding more steps to get nowhere just to make your stat seem more complicated.
    Well the original formula tells you how valuable a player is per bat.

    Take this number and multiply it by the player's average plate apparance per game and it will tell you how much value the player's bat is per game.

    Take that number and multiply it by the number of games and you will find how many runs the player's bat is worth.

    I have given examples already explaining how it works.

    Instead of just saying it's pointless, why not give me an example that shows my formula as being off base.

  4. #34
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    LOL at all of this. You are just completely wasting your time.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by 13Lawrie13 View Post
    wRC+ is an improved wOBA. I'm not sure how you can say wOBA is the best we have when wRC+ is better.
    Because, over the past 3 years, wOBA has actually correlated to runs scored than has wRC+.

    Park adjustments are nice, but they clearly need work. The biggest problem I have with park adjustments is they only adjust for home ballparks. Why aren't we adjusting Red Sox players for playing not only 81 games at Fenway, but another 9 or 10 at Yankee Stadium? Why don't San Diego players get adjusted for all of their road games in San Fran and Los Angeles? Or the AL West for having only one hitters park?

    I'm convinced that full-schedule park-adjustments would be a big improvement. As we're doing it now, it seems to not always be a real improvement. It is important in that it makes necessary adjustments for a snap shot, but as far as wOBA and wRC+ are concerned, wOBA has performed better over the last 3-5 years if my recollection is correct (I haven't looked any further).

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    You can call my forumula pointless or anything else you wish.

    (Walk*0.25)+(Single *0.25)+(Double*0.5)+(Triple*0.75)+(HR*1)
    _________________________________________
    PA

    But don't you dare say it ignores walks.


    Basiacally my forumula tells what a players bat is worth per plate appearance.

    If the player's PoA is 0.250, then the player is worth a single every at bat.

    The forumula pretty much tells you at what rate the player got to 1st, second, third and home when put into a forumula.

    Once you find out a player's PoA per plate appearance, you just need to find out how many plate appearances the player averaged per game.

    Multiply he player's PoA with the average plate appearance per game and you'll see what the player's production would average out per game.

    Cabrera averaged a PoA of 0.6816768 per game, or in other words, Cabrera's bat was worth somewhere between a double and a triple a game considering 0.500 would be averaging a double.

    ........

    Again, the formula doesn't put a value on the hits themselves, it just tells you at what rate did the player reach all 4 bases when added up.
    You've done nothing but offer us Secondary Average without the basestealing information. You haven't offered anything new. This is very old and it has been replaced by statistics which have been shown to correlate better to runs.

    You first find out the player's PoA, then you multiply it by the player's average plate appearances per game, and you'll find out what the player's bat's value is per game. Then you take that number and multiply it by the number of games played and you'll see how many runs the player's bat was worth over an entire season. Usually the PoA of a player for the season is near 5 runs compared to how many runs they actually scored.

    You can use PoA to estimate how many runs a player would score in a season.

    Go ahead, pick any player from this season and find out how accurate or inaccurate it is compared to how many runs they scored on the season.
    You have no methodology for determining your bases-to-runs conversion.

    Take the player's PoA per game and multiply it by the number of games the player played and it will tell you around how many runs the player should score in that season.

    Cabrera PoA for the entire season was 109.74513, he scored 109 runs. pretty damn accurate there.

    Of course scoring runs or producing rbi's has factors like how your team does as well. Like I said, the forumula would say around how many runs the player should score that season.

    Then there are cases like Andrew Jones, he scored 103 runs. Looking at his batting statistics this season do you believe his bat was worth 103 runs.

    The PoA was 0.1294835 per bat, 0.5570987 per game and over the season, his PoA was 90.249989.

    This means Andrew Jones SHOULD have scored closer to 90 runs on the season. Andrew Jones' bat was worth 90 runs this season.
    Like this, here. There is no methodology for your conversion from bases to runs. It also doesn't even begin to address the effects of walks and singles. How do those correlate to runs?

    Also, you're only discussing runs scored, not runs produced. That seems unhelpful.

    You're literally not offering anything of value at all.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wade>Kobe View Post
    You've done nothing but offer us Secondary Average without the basestealing information. You haven't offered anything new. This is very old and it has been replaced by statistics which have been shown to correlate better to runs.
    Well that's because it would measure how good a player is with the bat. PoA is a batting statistic.

    I never mentioned about offence including basestealing.

    As for everything else, I already admitted from the very start that the formula is probably flawed in some way (to which degree I don't know). However it's very interesting how when you add it all up a player's entire PoA for the season it matches very close to their runs that they scored, or might be even dead on.

    People are acting that the formula is way off base. If that was so, then why are the results are accurate? And I already gave you examples.

    As I said before, pick a player from this season, use my formula for the player and use it for the entire season.

    I would still like to see an example that absolutely proves my formula is trash.

    Put my formula to the test is all I ask.

  8. #38
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    Stat I made up called 'BaE' or Bat Efficiancy

    Let me ask you this question. If are trying to make a stat more accurate than runs, then why are you comparing it to runs and what what exactly is its benefit if were getting nowhere with it?

    Not to mention that both stats are cumulative stas as opposed to efficiency. Youre getting no where with this stat. Youve just created another way to inaccuratelu figure out how many runs a player scored.
    Last edited by Driven; 10-29-2012 at 02:17 PM.

  9. #39
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    Stat I made up called 'BaE' or Bat Efficiancy

    Edit: nvm
    Last edited by Driven; 10-29-2012 at 02:19 PM.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Driven View Post
    Let me ask you this question. If are trying to make a stat more accurate than runs, then why are you comparing it to runs and what what exactly is its benefit if were getting nowhere with it?

    Not to mention that both stats are cumulative stas as opposed to efficiency. Youre getting no where with this stat. Youve just created another way to inaccuratelu figure out how many runs a player scored.
    Simple, it will give you an estimate on how many runs the player should score in the compared to their production of the plate.

    Miguel Cabrera had a PoA for the season of 109.74513 and scored 109 runs. It means that his Batting production was very much responsible for the 109 runs he scored. He hit 44 home runs so automatically he's going to score 44 times. So if a Home Run will have the player scoring 1 run when hit you have the factor in the other 3 bases. This is what the formula does.

    If a home run is 100% a run every time it's hit then what are the other 3?

    Well Cabrera went 100% around the bases 44 times by his own abilities.
    He went 50% around the bases 40 times, and 25% around the bases 187 times with walks and singles.



    Now let's take the case of Andrew Jones who scored 103 runs, only 6 off of Cabrera. Right away he is guaranteed to score 32 runs on home runs. However his PoA for the entire season was 90.249989. It pretty much indicates that Andrew Jones was nowhere the hitter Cabrera was and also that he was being cashed in on a much higher rate when he got on base. Andrew Jones, based on his battting production he should have scored closer to 90 runs.

    Now let's say there was a player PoA of 0.05 per bat. This would be a very poor hitter. For the sake of the argument let's say he averaged 4 at bats per game and played in 162 games. This person would be worth 32.4 runs for the season and would barely score over that unless his teamates would cash him in when he's barely on base. In fact this hitter wouldn't even be worth a single per game, his PoA per game would be .20. This player would go 0 for 4 quite alot and would probably hit a single every now and then.

  11. #41
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    Dude...it's Adam Jones.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Simple, it will give you an estimate on how many runs the player should score in the compared to their production of the plate.

    Miguel Cabrera had a PoA for the season of 109.74513 and scored 109 runs. It means that his Batting production was very much responsible for the 109 runs he scored. He hit 44 home runs so automatically he's going to score 44 times. So if a Home Run will have the player scoring 1 run when hit you have the factor in the other 3 bases. This is what the formula does.

    If a home run is 100% a run every time it's hit then what are the other 3?

    Well Cabrera went 100% around the bases 44 times by his own abilities.
    He went 50% around the bases 40 times, and 25% around the bases 187 times with walks and singles.



    Now let's take the case of Andrew Jones who scored 103 runs, only 6 off of Cabrera. Right away he is guaranteed to score 32 runs on home runs. However his PoA for the entire season was 90.249989. It pretty much indicates that Andrew Jones was nowhere the hitter Cabrera was and also that he was being cashed in on a much higher rate when he got on base. Andrew Jones, based on his battting production he should have scored closer to 90 runs.

    Now let's say there was a player PoA of 0.05 per bat. This would be a very poor hitter. For the sake of the argument let's say he averaged 4 at bats per game and played in 162 games. This person would be worth 32.4 runs for the season and would barely score over that unless his teamates would cash him in when he's barely on base. In fact this hitter wouldn't even be worth a single per game, his PoA per game would be .20. This player would go 0 for 4 quite alot and would probably hit a single every now and then.
    Just saying something does something doesn't make it so.

    What everyone else has already said is still true. What your statistic is trying to accomplish leaves a lot to be desired and is being done way, way better by other statistics made by smarter people than you and I.

    The point is how well does a statistic correlate to real world runs. Yours might be kinda good at it, but that doesn't mean much. Batting average is kinda good at run correlation. It's still not a good measure of value for a hitter compared to other easily available statistics. Like wOBA.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milnertime View Post
    Just saying something does something doesn't make it so.

    What everyone else has already said is still true. What your statistic is trying to accomplish leaves a lot to be desired and is being done way, way better by other statistics made by smarter people than you and I.

    The point is how well does a statistic correlate to real world runs. Yours might be kinda good at it, but that doesn't mean much. Batting average is kinda good at run correlation. It's still not a good measure of value for a hitter compared to other easily available statistics. Like wOBA.
    While I agree my statistic isn't the best, doesn't mean it can't be used though.

    As for wOBA itself, it still needs to be improved, it's getting there but it seriously needs to take out the stat HBP and put in other stats like ground rule doubles and infield singles. But hey, i'll admit it's heading in the right direction.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    While I agree my statistic isn't the best, doesn't mean it can't be used though.

    As for wOBA itself, it still needs to be improved, it's getting there but it seriously needs to take out the stat HBP and put in other stats like ground rule doubles and infield singles. But hey, i'll admit it's heading in the right direction.
    Ground rule doubles and infield singles are in wOBA. Every double and single is included in wOBA. It doesn't need to take out HBP. It's been shown that for some players getting hit by a pitch is a repeatable skill. Getting on base via a HBP adds offensive value, as well, which is what wOBA measures.

    Guys like Kevin Youkilis, Prince Fielder, Carlos Quentin, etc. They're all getting hit a lot each year.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milnertime View Post
    Ground rule doubles and infield singles are in wOBA. Every double and single is included in wOBA. It doesn't need to take out HBP. It's been shown that for some players getting hit by a pitch is a repeatable skill. Getting on base via a HBP adds offensive value, as well, which is what wOBA measures.

    Guys like Kevin Youkilis, Prince Fielder, Carlos Quentin, etc. They're all getting hit a lot each year.
    Please enlighten me how it's a skill to get hit when there are times, quite a few actually that the pithcher let the ball get away from him. HBP relies on luck too much.

    Also i'm not the only one who thinks so, there are posters here who agree with me on this point, and they are wOBA lovers.

    What I meant was Ground Rule doubles should be seperate from regular doubles and infield singles should be seperate from regular singles and both added to the formula.

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