Like us on Facebook


Follow us on Twitter





Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 15 of 21
  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Castlevania
    Posts
    2,654
    vCash
    1500

    wOBA is really flawed stat

    Yes i'm going to get flak by stat heads but when I looked at the formula some things don't add up.

    NIBB = Non intentionall base on balls is a better value to the team than a hit by pitch. You cannot tell me that a free pass by four balls at the least is more valuable than a free pass to first base by a single pitch.

    A single should have more value than a reach on base by error, and a reach on base by error is a defensive miscue. That is a stat that relies on the other teams miscue, it's a situational stat that should not count towards how good a hitter is.

    wOBA to me is a flawed formula.

    3 stats that I think should be added to the formula for any advanced production stat are. IBB, I think OPS might have this, Infield singles (yes, it should be a sepearate stat than a outfield single, as I find infield singles less valuable. The last stat which should come into a formula is pitches per at bat.

    Maybe i'll try and come up with a stat of my own, (and get called how stupid and flawed that stat is).


    Anyways these are my thoughts.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Bothell
    Posts
    13,800
    vCash
    1500
    Why is a IBB any less valuable?
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,818
    vCash
    1000
    We have a forum section for these discussions

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    Bothell
    Posts
    13,800
    vCash
    1500
    And why are RBI and average not flawed?
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,818
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Yes i'm going to get flak by stat heads but when I looked at the formula some things don't add up.

    NIBB = Non intentionall base on balls is a better value to the team than a hit by pitch. You cannot tell me that a free pass by four balls at the least is more valuable than a free pass to first base by a single pitch.
    Takes 3 more pitches.

    Is an attempt to measure skill, not luck.

    A single should have more value than a reach on base by error, and a reach on base by error is a defensive miscue. That is a stat that relies on the other teams miscue, it's a situational stat that should not count towards how good a hitter is.
    Reaching base on an error is no longer included in wOBA

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,818
    vCash
    1000
    Here is the formula now

    wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B +
    2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Castlevania
    Posts
    2,654
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    And why are RBI and average not flawed?
    Sorry Jeffy,
    I tend to post any info not Jays related into the mlb section, my bad.


    I'm not talking about rbi or average, i'm talking about wOBA specifically.

    I'm saying it's not a really good stat to use.

    Also, I just saw that Jeffy, ok, I was looking at the Wiki article on wOBA, so I guess it needs to be updated then.


    As for reaching on base by non hit I would go.
    Walk is more valuable than an intentional walk which is more valuable than a hit by pitch.

    I would argue that someone who averages 5 pitches per at bat is more valuable than someone who averages 2. The ones who average more pitches per at bat tend to be more patient than a free swinger. (I think there is something to be said about a player who fouls off alot of pitches)

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Here is the formula now

    wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B +
    2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA
    Please tell me what wOBA is supposed to tell of the player exactly.
    Last edited by Vampirate; 10-09-2012 at 11:44 PM.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Posts
    8,714
    vCash
    34875
    It weighs each hit. A single is not more valuable than a double. Average weighs them the same, it's why wOBA is better.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,818
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post

    Please tell me what wOBA is supposed to tell of the player exactly.
    It simply shows the value of the hitter more clearly on an average weight (treated like OBP, or AVG would be)

    It's supposed to be more skill based.

    I personally think IBB should be included actually. You are creating team value there.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Castlevania
    Posts
    2,654
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    It weighs each hit. A single is not more valuable than a double. Average weighs them the same, it's why wOBA is better.

    I understand that, but what i'm saying is the formula is flawed.

    Imo hbp is more dependant on the pitcher being wild than the better skill. And it should be less valuable than a unintentional walk. (I think it's actually possible to force a walk that isn't an intentional walk if you can foul off any pitch that could be a strike)

    Also I don't understand how Stealing bases counts (it should be in a seperate offensive stat imo)

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Castlevania
    Posts
    2,654
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    It simply shows the value of the hitter more clearly on an average weight (treated like OBP, or AVG would be)

    It's supposed to be more skill based.

    I personally think IBB should be included actually. You are creating team value there.
    Take Stealing out (that's not a hitting stat, it's a running stat)

    Yes put IBB in, arguably take HBP out as well (luck stat to me) and put in a new stat 'infield single' which seperates it from a regular single as an infield single is less valuable.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,818
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Take Stealing out (that's not a hitting stat, it's a running stat)
    It's an offensive stat

    And the stat attempts to show the value of the creation of runs.

    That's it.


    I have a feeling you don't understand the stat very well, or rather it's intent.


    There is some great information to learn on it, and you should challenge it, but you should challenge it upon knowing more. That's all.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Castlevania
    Posts
    2,654
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    It's an offensive stat

    And the stat attempts to show the value of the creation of runs.

    That's it.


    I have a feeling you don't understand the stat very well, or rather it's intent.


    There is some great information to learn on it, and you should challenge it, but you should challenge it upon knowing more. That's all.
    From what I have read, wOBA is the value of each at bat, go blame the source material on this one. Can you give me an exact link on the up to date defenition and formula?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    38,818
    vCash
    1000
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    From what I have read, wOBA is the value of each at bat, go blame the source material on this one. Can you give me an exact link on the up to date defenition and formula?
    The last link provided is probably your best link to learn without doing too much research, but here is more in case you want it.

    From the creator of the stat
    http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._to_know_woba/

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind.../offense/woba/


    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big...urn=mlb,208135

    All of these are older links, but the information is the same.

    The only difference is that the calculation changes each year based on how the league average performs, and lately it's been more pitching dominate.


    The last link really tells you everything you want to know.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Castlevania
    Posts
    2,654
    vCash
    1500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    The last link provided is probably your best link to learn without doing too much research, but here is more in case you want it.

    From the creator of the stat
    http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

    http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/inde..._to_know_woba/

    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind.../offense/woba/


    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big...urn=mlb,208135

    All of these are older links, but the information is the same.

    The only difference is that the calculation changes each year based on how the league average performs, and lately it's been more pitching dominate.


    The last link really tells you everything you want to know.
    Yeah, the problem I have with the formula is that by defenition wOBA is supposed to tell you how many runs you produce per at bat. The thing is I view HBP and stealing stats a non batter's statistic, and HBP especialy a non offensive statistic (that's a pitchers error in my view).

    If they said wOBA was offence produced by a player's hitting skills and on base running skills then it would be more acceptable for me. But it's clearly saying runs produced at bat by the hitter, not a player's hitting and base running skills.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •