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  1. #1
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    wOBA is really flawed stat

    Yes i'm going to get flak by stat heads but when I looked at the formula some things don't add up.

    NIBB = Non intentionall base on balls is a better value to the team than a hit by pitch. You cannot tell me that a free pass by four balls at the least is more valuable than a free pass to first base by a single pitch.

    A single should have more value than a reach on base by error, and a reach on base by error is a defensive miscue. That is a stat that relies on the other teams miscue, it's a situational stat that should not count towards how good a hitter is.

    wOBA to me is a flawed formula.

    3 stats that I think should be added to the formula for any advanced production stat are. IBB, I think OPS might have this, Infield singles (yes, it should be a sepearate stat than a outfield single, as I find infield singles less valuable. The last stat which should come into a formula is pitches per at bat.

    Maybe i'll try and come up with a stat of my own, (and get called how stupid and flawed that stat is).


    Anyways these are my thoughts.

  2. #2
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    Why is a IBB any less valuable?
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  3. #3
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    We have a forum section for these discussions

  4. #4
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    And why are RBI and average not flawed?
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    And why are RBI and average not flawed?
    Sorry Jeffy,
    I tend to post any info not Jays related into the mlb section, my bad.


    I'm not talking about rbi or average, i'm talking about wOBA specifically.

    I'm saying it's not a really good stat to use.

    Also, I just saw that Jeffy, ok, I was looking at the Wiki article on wOBA, so I guess it needs to be updated then.


    As for reaching on base by non hit I would go.
    Walk is more valuable than an intentional walk which is more valuable than a hit by pitch.

    I would argue that someone who averages 5 pitches per at bat is more valuable than someone who averages 2. The ones who average more pitches per at bat tend to be more patient than a free swinger. (I think there is something to be said about a player who fouls off alot of pitches)

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    Here is the formula now

    wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B +
    2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA
    Please tell me what wOBA is supposed to tell of the player exactly.
    Last edited by Vampirate; 10-09-2012 at 11:44 PM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post

    Please tell me what wOBA is supposed to tell of the player exactly.
    It simply shows the value of the hitter more clearly on an average weight (treated like OBP, or AVG would be)

    It's supposed to be more skill based.

    I personally think IBB should be included actually. You are creating team value there.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffy25 View Post
    It simply shows the value of the hitter more clearly on an average weight (treated like OBP, or AVG would be)

    It's supposed to be more skill based.

    I personally think IBB should be included actually. You are creating team value there.
    Take Stealing out (that's not a hitting stat, it's a running stat)

    Yes put IBB in, arguably take HBP out as well (luck stat to me) and put in a new stat 'infield single' which seperates it from a regular single as an infield single is less valuable.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Take Stealing out (that's not a hitting stat, it's a running stat)
    It's an offensive stat

    And the stat attempts to show the value of the creation of runs.

    That's it.


    I have a feeling you don't understand the stat very well, or rather it's intent.


    There is some great information to learn on it, and you should challenge it, but you should challenge it upon knowing more. That's all.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Take Stealing out (that's not a hitting stat, it's a running stat)
    Ask and you shall receive.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...nning-changes/

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampirate View Post
    Yes i'm going to get flak by stat heads but when I looked at the formula some things don't add up.

    NIBB = Non intentionall base on balls is a better value to the team than a hit by pitch. You cannot tell me that a free pass by four balls at the least is more valuable than a free pass to first base by a single pitch.
    Takes 3 more pitches.

    Is an attempt to measure skill, not luck.

    A single should have more value than a reach on base by error, and a reach on base by error is a defensive miscue. That is a stat that relies on the other teams miscue, it's a situational stat that should not count towards how good a hitter is.
    Reaching base on an error is no longer included in wOBA

  11. #11
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    Here is the formula now

    wOBA = (0.69×uBB + 0.72×HBP + 0.89×1B + 1.26×2B + 1.60×3B +
    2.08×HR + 0.25×SB -0.50×CS) / PA

  12. #12
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    It weighs each hit. A single is not more valuable than a double. Average weighs them the same, it's why wOBA is better.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Guppyfighter View Post
    It weighs each hit. A single is not more valuable than a double. Average weighs them the same, it's why wOBA is better.

    I understand that, but what i'm saying is the formula is flawed.

    Imo hbp is more dependant on the pitcher being wild than the better skill. And it should be less valuable than a unintentional walk. (I think it's actually possible to force a walk that isn't an intentional walk if you can foul off any pitch that could be a strike)

    Also I don't understand how Stealing bases counts (it should be in a seperate offensive stat imo)

  14. #14
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    I'm still not completely sure what he thinks is flawed. He keeps bringing random incorrect information up.

    SB were taken out. The difference between HBP and uBB is not large enough to me to call it a completely flawed stat, especially when it's competition are 2 counting stats useless average that tells me one thing.

    They get the numbers from other data. They don't just pull it out. HBP must be more valuable in their research.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  15. #15
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    It doesn't matter is the stat is 2.456374 x the density of the hitter's poop. What matters is if it predicts runs and predicts wins significantly better than simpler stats.
    Last edited by flips333; 10-18-2012 at 10:58 PM.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrPoon
    man with hair like fire can destroy souls with a twitch of his thighs.

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