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  1. #436
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    2,488
    Any data looking at the value of green lighting 3-0 counts. Seems like its a straight fastball down the middle to go 3-1, then the batter fouls off a pitch because he's watched 4 pitches 3 of them out of the zone and is late and maybe swinging at questionable pitches.

    How often do 3-0 pitch counts become 3-2? Even a green light with a smaller strike zone should keep the pitcher from getting a free strike.

  2. #437
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    46,553

    Introduction to new stats

    I am sticking a thread for those that want to post about a stat that they have learned about, or is a new stat that they find interesting.

    Do your best to explain in complete, and be able to answer questions for the stat.


    I learned about this stat a few years ago, but it's still useful, and really it is under utilized when discussing teams defenses, and how it might impact a pitcher.


    Defensive efficiency.


    You can find each teams defensive efficiency ratings by going to
    baseball-reference.com
    then select seasons
    2012 mlb
    then under fielding, sort by DefEff

    In 2012, league average was .691

    This is very simply. The number of outs on balls in play that a team converted into outs.

    This is subject to fluctuations by pitchers that give up stronger contact vs weaker contact.

    But it's also a sign of how well a team plays defensively vs another.


    An example is when someone says Justin Verlander had worse defense than Jered Weaver, thus the ERA differences


    Well DefEff
    League average is .691
    Angels led baseball with a .708
    Tigers were 5th to last with a .678

    So there might be some truth to that accusation.


    Anyway, additional tool to use to help find more information

  3. #438
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    Holland
    Posts
    2,291
    I like it. Great thread

  4. #439
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    46,553
    I would like to introduce my own personally created statistic

    Net Runs Totaled

    wRC+DRS+positional adjustment+BSR

    Everything can be found on Fangraphs

    wRC
    Is the weighted Runs Created by a player (can be found under advanced batting)

    DRS
    Defensive Runs Saved (can be found under advanced fielding)

    Positional Adjustment
    Per 162 games played - so if they play half a season, weigh it based on number of games played at said position, and value each. If a player plays 81 games in LF, and 81 games at 1B, then you would take the average between the two.
    Here are the positional adjustment totals
    Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)
    First Base: -12.5 runs
    Second Base: +2.5 runs
    Third Base: +2.5 runs
    Shortstop: +7.5 runs
    Left Field: -7.5 runs
    Center Field: +2.5 runs
    Right Field: -7.5 runs
    Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

    BSR
    Just Base Running Runs created
    Under any baseball players page on fangraphs, it's the base running score


    So an example from this season would be
    Austin Jackson
    RC: 97
    DRS: 5
    PA: 2.5
    BSR: 1.2
    = 105.7

    Prince
    RC: 124
    DRS: -4
    PA: -12.5
    BSR: -5.9
    = 101.6


    Gives another snap shot at player value across positions like WAR, and provides additional information

  5. #440
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    31,298
    Just read Jim Caple's article on WAR- likes and dislikes.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89...placement-stat

    I really hate how sportswriters keep saying pro-saber uses WAR as the end-all stat. I haven't seen one person that uses WAR as the only stat to judge a player.

    This excerpt really made me

    And just in case you're thinking FanGraphs must feature the more reliable WAR, bear in mind that Ricky Nolasco was 13-9 with a 5.06 ERA in 2009 while pitching just 185 innings, but FanGraphs had his WAR at 4.3 that season.
    2009 Ricky Nolasco

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...830&position=P

  6. #441
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    24,660
    Ignorance is bliss i guess...

    It's very easy to bad mouth the information when a guy like Jim has no idea what it means in it's totality.

  7. #442
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    17,188
    Quote Originally Posted by SFrush90 View Post
    Just read Jim Caple's article on WAR- likes and dislikes.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89...placement-stat

    I really hate how sportswriters keep saying pro-saber uses WAR as the end-all stat. I haven't seen one person that uses WAR as the only stat to judge a player.

    This excerpt really made me



    2009 Ricky Nolasco

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...830&position=P
    They are ignorant. How can someone write about the problems with WAR, then use a guys W-L and ERA as a reason why WAR is wrong. What an idiot.

    He linked to Bleacher report also...

  8. #443
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    46,553
    OppQual


    It's under baseball-reference during Spring Training.

    It shows the quality level that a hitter for example has been facing vs pitchers.

    Example:

    Oscar Taveras has a 8.4 right now

    10 - MLB
    8 - AAA
    7 - AA
    5 - High A
    4 - Full Season A
    1.5 - 3 - Rookie Ball
    1 - Opposition is a batter not even a pitcher lol.

    http://www.sports-reference.com/blog...ition-measure/

  9. #444
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Brooklyn
    Posts
    24,660
    Does it apex at 10?

    Or does it distinguish the quality of major league hitters or pitchers pass that number?
    Last edited by metswon69; 03-03-2013 at 07:50 AM.

  10. #445
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    Jul 2010
    Posts
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    Appears to apex

  11. #446
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Location
    Central Iowa
    Posts
    3,374
    Interesting way to look at things. I like it.

  12. #447
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    8,679
    What would an average HR/FB ratio be, and what would be considered lucky/unlucky or high/low?

  13. #448
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
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    46,553
    Quote Originally Posted by CUBDOM4life View Post
    What would an average HR/FB ratio be, and what would be considered lucky/unlucky or high/low?
    http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind.../pitching/hrs/

  14. #449
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    46,553
    Quote Originally Posted by SFrush90 View Post
    Just read Jim Caple's article on WAR- likes and dislikes.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89...placement-stat

    I really hate how sportswriters keep saying pro-saber uses WAR as the end-all stat. I haven't seen one person that uses WAR as the only stat to judge a player.

    This excerpt really made me



    2009 Ricky Nolasco

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...830&position=P
    I too hate it when my starting pitcher of 185 innings carries a 4.43 K/BB

    What a bum :shame:

  15. #450
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    South Philly
    Posts
    2,929
    So my question is on the term "peripherals" when discussing the sustainability of certain stats. I actually have two questions related to this:

    1. What constitutes a "peripheral"? (I believe stats like GB%, LD%, etc. are considered this)
    2. How do you determine, when looking at the peripherals of a pitcher for example, what is sustainable in his stats and what is not?

    Any links to some reading on this subject would be very helpful and greatly appreciated. Thanks!

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