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View Poll Results: Which "WAR" do you prefer?

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  • fWAR

    3 50.00%
  • rWAR

    3 50.00%
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  1. #1
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    Fan Graph WAR vs. Reference WAR

    Anyone else feel strongly that Fan Graph WAR for positional players is much more accurate?

    And that Reference WAR for pitchers is more accurate?

  2. #2
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    I think they're both BS.

  3. #3
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    Not a huge fan FG war for pitchers. I believe that FIP/xFIP goes heavily into that, and while I use that stat, I don't like it to be a huge factor for it. (For example, Verlander, Holland and Fister all have higher/same amount of WAR than Kershaw)
    Last edited by DodgerB24; 06-19-2013 at 01:47 AM.


    baseball

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by natsbats View Post
    Anyone else feel strongly that Fan Graph WAR for positional players is much more accurate?

    And that Reference WAR for pitchers is more accurate?
    BR's RField numbers are less erratic than UZR - hence IMO are more accurate for same season comparisons. I find UZR for both catchers and 1B to poorly reflect what actually happened.

    While wOBA is better than OPS+, when I looked at rWAR vs fWAR a couple of years ago for about 50 assorted historic players (Yaz and Kaline to Jeter and Nomar) I saw a small but consistent bias in favor of rWAR.

    As for pitching, as an amateur historian I find fWAR (due to the problems with FIP and FIP+) to be inaccurate to what actually happened vs. rWAR. Also data collection for fg stats only started recently, making it an "incomplete" in a historic sense.

    I like FanGraphs for other things such as WAR $ and pitch type %'s and velocity. I would prefer one site that has a clear overall lead, and I know a lot of SABR folks put their support behind FG, but, neither one can claim hegemony IMO.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  5. #5
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    I use fWAR more because I go there for everything else, but I acknowledge rWAR may be better. But I think the difference is probably negligible.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dodgerbluemmm24 View Post
    Not a huge fan FG war for pitchers. I believe that FIP/xFIP goes heavily into that, and while I use that stat, I don't like it to be a huge factor for it. (For example, Verlander, Holland and Fister all have higher/same amount of WAR than Kershaw)
    You may be right, but you shouldn't judge a stat based on how much it agrees with your preconceived notions.


    Also, bagwell, FG doesn't use UZR for catchers. They use rSB and something else.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    You may be right, but you shouldn't judge a stat based on how much it agrees with your preconceived notions.


    Also, bagwell, FG doesn't use UZR for catchers. They use rSB and something else.
    OK. BR catcher numbers are not that great either. 1B is a gulf however IMO.


    6/27/09: “We expect [Rondo] to play by the rules and be a leader as a point guard. We need him to be more of a leader,” Ainge said. “There were just a couple situations where he was late this year, I don’t know if he was sitting in his car, but showed up late and the rest of the team was there. We have team rules and you have to be on time. He was fined for being late, he said he was stuck in traffic, and it’s just unacceptable.”

    Some jerks never learn.....

  8. #8
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    One interesting case of a severe difference this year:

    Shaun Marcum fWar 1.2
    Shaun Marcum rWAR -1.0

    www.DailyStache.net You Gotta Believe
    R.I.P UAPeople

  9. #9
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    ^ Tim Lincecum 2012

    BR -1.7
    FG 1.0


    baseball

  10. #10
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    To my knowledge, rWAR gives you a more accurate reading of "what actually happened" with pitchers since it actually looks at the runs that pitchers gave up. fWAR only uses FIP, which does not factor in hits, only K's, BB's, and HR.

    For the 2012 season I compared each team's actual win total with the win total that fWAR and rWAR predicted they would have. For example, the Orioles won 93 games. Their team fWAR was 31.8 and rWAR was 33.2. Replacement level for rWAR is approximately 52 wins, and for fWAR it's about 44 wins. So fWAR says the Orioles "should have" won about 76 games, and rWAR says 85 games.

    Long story short, I compared how far a team's rWAR predicted wins vs. fWAR predicted wins deviated from their real win total. rWAR turned out to be more accurate by about 2.5%.

    My methodology may be very flawed, so take that for what it's worth.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  11. #11
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    ^ No, that's about perfect.

  12. #12
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    Man, that is a much bigger difference than I thought. May have to start using rWAR more. But fangraphs is so much better for everything else..
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by jej View Post
    Man, that is a much bigger difference than I thought. May have to start using rWAR more. But fangraphs is so much better for everything else..
    The main problem lies in FIP. If they used SIERA to determine a pitcher's WAR, we might get a better picture of what happened/will happen IMO.
    "We're snakebitten, baby." --Fred Wilpon

  14. #14
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    I don't see the problem with FIP tho. It is a good stat IMO. Maybe more for the future, but still.
    You have no idea how excited I am right now.


  15. #15
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    the problem is one of layout and interface. fangrahs leaderboards is so easy to use and br has nothing like it and is very difficult to get multilpe years of data.

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