The Official Off-Season Thread of the Texas Rangers

[Skizzik]

I keep seeing Rangers name pop up with Justin Upton and in that case I don't see us keeping Hamilton.

I would rather Hamilton because the drop off from Hamilton to the next guy is huge.

Upton #'s .280 HR 17 RBI 67 Runs 107 SB 18
Hamilton .285 HR 43 RBI 128 Runs 103 SB 7

Best month
Upton
June 87 AB 15R 29H 2HR 14RBI 21K .333avg

Hamilton
April 86 AB 20R 34H 9HR 25RBI 17K .395

Hamilton's worst month he produced 10R 4HR and 11RBI almost what Upton did his best.

That's not a very fair comparison, you intentionally skew your data points to favor Hamilton. I could do similar for Upton. First off, you can throw out RBIs. In a perfectly even scenario, Hamilton would still beat Upton in RBIs, but you do have to factor in the team around the player as well. One of these players plays in a top two or three offense (1st in runs scored, 3rd in average, 4th in OBP and 5th in HR) depending how you judge offense.

Secondly, not everyone in a home run hitter. I know they impress the casual fan and that obviously if someone walked up and hit a home run every at bat, they'd be pretty impressive and score more runs than someone who did the same thing with singles. But honestly, Upton doesn't have to bash a million home runs to be good.

The areas where Upton beats Hamilton?
Try consistency for one. You linked their best months, I'll link their worst (I took out Hamilton's horrendous October, only because it was a meager three games):
Hamilton - .177/.253/.354, 4 HR, 8 BB, 21 SO, 10 R, 0 SB.
Upton - .242/.354/.379, 2 HR, 10 BB, 19 SO, 16 R, 3 SB.

In batting average, Hamilton's high month is a staggering .218 points in difference. When Hamilton is good, he's great, when he's bad though...he can cost his team games. What were our worst two months? Well, when Hamilton stunk in October, guess what? 0-3. And when he sucked for a full month in July? 9-14. The only month we couldn't manage at least a .500 record.

Next, Upton has the superior OBP, he gets on more. .355 to .354...it's not a huge difference, but consider this...think of the number of intentional walks Hamilton gets. Then consider the other stats you linked, including a month where Hamilton damn near batted .400. And yet, he loses to the guy who's best month was .060 points worse in batting average? On top of taking slightly more walks, Upton doesn't strike out as much. 162 SO for Hamilton to 121 for Upton.

You might say, well Hamilton bats more being the higher scoring offense... wrong, because Hamilton misses more games. Hamilton had 562 AB to Upton's 554. (Crazy thing I found here...not only are their ABs exactly 8 different, Hamilton has exactly 8 PAs on Upton, 636-628). And Upton has significantly more games played over Hamilton the last four years:
Year - Upton - Hamilton
2012 -150 - 148
2011 - 159 - 121
2010 - 133 - 133
2009 - 138 - 89
Total - 580 - 491

Oh and finally, there's a huge age difference...Hamilton turns 32 in May, Upton turns 26 (entering his prime) in August. I'm not saying Upton will walk in and replace Josh Hamilton. But he has notably more plate discipline, is far more consistent, plays more games, is younger and is entering his prime, unlike Hamilton who is exiting his.

[Corked Bat]

Oh and finally, there's a huge age difference...Hamilton turns 32 in May, Upton turns 26 (entering his prime) in August. I'm not saying Upton will walk in and replace Josh Hamilton. But he has notably more plate discipline, is far more consistent, plays more games, is younger and is entering his prime, unlike Hamilton who is exiting his.

too bad they are insisting on andrus or profar in return.

[stipe1280]

That's not a very fair comparison, you intentionally skew your data points to favor Hamilton. I could do similar for Upton. First off, you can throw out RBIs. In a perfectly even scenario, Hamilton would still beat Upton in RBIs, but you do have to factor in the team around the player as well. One of these players plays in a top two or three offense (1st in runs scored, 3rd in average, 4th in OBP and 5th in HR) depending how you judge offense.

Secondly, not everyone in a home run hitter. I know they impress the casual fan and that obviously if someone walked up and hit a home run every at bat, they'd be pretty impressive and score more runs than someone who did the same thing with singles. But honestly, Upton doesn't have to bash a million home runs to be good.

The areas where Upton beats Hamilton?
Try consistency for one. You linked their best months, I'll link their worst (I took out Hamilton's horrendous October, only because it was a meager three games):
Hamilton - .177/.253/.354, 4 HR, 8 BB, 21 SO, 10 R, 0 SB.
Upton - .242/.354/.379, 2 HR, 10 BB, 19 SO, 16 R, 3 SB.

In batting average, Hamilton's high month is a staggering .218 points in difference. When Hamilton is good, he's great, when he's bad though...he can cost his team games. What were our worst two months? Well, when Hamilton stunk in October, guess what? 0-3. And when he sucked for a full month in July? 9-14. The only month we couldn't manage at least a .500 record.

Next, Upton has the superior OBP, he gets on more. .355 to .354...it's not a huge difference, but consider this...think of the number of intentional walks Hamilton gets. Then consider the other stats you linked, including a month where Hamilton damn near batted .400. And yet, he loses to the guy who's best month was .060 points worse in batting average? On top of taking slightly more walks, Upton doesn't strike out as much. 162 SO for Hamilton to 121 for Upton.

You might say, well Hamilton bats more being the higher scoring offense... wrong, because Hamilton misses more games. Hamilton had 562 AB to Upton's 554. (Crazy thing I found here...not only are their ABs exactly 8 different, Hamilton has exactly 8 PAs on Upton, 636-628). And Upton has significantly more games played over Hamilton the last four years:
Year - Upton - Hamilton
2012 -150 - 148
2011 - 159 - 121
2010 - 133 - 133
2009 - 138 - 89
Total - 580 - 491

Oh and finally, there's a huge age difference...Hamilton turns 32 in May, Upton turns 26 (entering his prime) in August. I'm not saying Upton will walk in and replace Josh Hamilton. But he has notably more plate discipline, is far more consistent, plays more games, is younger and is entering his prime, unlike Hamilton who is exiting his.

Thank you.

I was just getting ready to reply to his comparison when I saw yours. It's not fair to take Upton's worst year and use that as his standard.

[stipe1280]

too bad they are insisting on andrus or profar in return.

Hopefully they can work out a deal where Cleveland is involved and gives Arizona Asdrubal Cabrera, then all parties could be happy.

[Skizzik]

Hopefully they can work out a deal where Cleveland is involved and gives Arizona Asdrubal Cabrera, then all parties could be happy.

This. There are other solutions. Arizona just wants a SS, it doesn't HAVE to be a Rangers shortstop. We have prospects that we can give up that mean less to this organization that either Elvis or Profar.

[bmcculloch21]

Today's stab in the dark: (what I WANT, not what we'll do)

Sign Grienke 7/175
Sign Hamilton 4/93
Sign Swisher 2/26

Trade Young for cash and top A-ball prospect
Trade Cruz for Dickey
Trade Perez, Grimm, L. Martin for Mauer and Aaron Hicks
Trade L. Garcia, Ross for Upton (through whatever team combo necessary)
Trade Olt, Ogando, Holland, Beltre, and Gallo for David Price

RF/DH/2B-Kinsler
SS/DH-Andrus
LF/DH-Hamilton
3B-Beltre
CF-Upton
C/DH-Mauer
1B/RF-Swisher
OF/DH-Gentry
2B/DH/SS-Profar

Price
Grienke
Darvish
Dickey
Harrison



Thank you, thank you... just hand me the rings now.

[BigDFan85]

yesterday there were rumors that texas was working on a way to put together an outfield that featured both hamilton and upton.

ray:

[waveone]

Today's stab in the dark: (what I WANT, not what we'll do)

Sign Grienke 7/175
Sign Hamilton 4/93
Sign Swisher 2/26

Trade Young for cash and top A-ball prospect
Trade Cruz for Dickey
Trade Perez, Grimm, L. Martin for Mauer and Aaron Hicks
Trade L. Garcia, Ross for Upton (through whatever team combo necessary)
Trade Olt, Ogando, Holland, Beltre, and Gallo for David Price

RF/DH/2B-Kinsler
SS/DH-Andrus
LF/DH-Hamilton
3B-Beltre
CF-Upton
C/DH-Mauer
1B/RF-Swisher
OF/DH-Gentry
2B/DH/SS-Profar

Price
Grienke
Darvish
Dickey
Harrison



Thank you, thank you... just hand me the rings now.

Definitely not afraid to offer my perspective on things even if it is sharp contrast to the consensus.


That stated while Price is a better pitcher than Greinke IMO he is not worth all those players and Beltre. In fact I wouldn't offer Ogando either. I stop and offer cash or another prospect.

Ogando is a good bull pen guy and Beltre is too clutch. Holland on the other hand needs to go somewhere else along with Cruz....

Texas needs to keep strong defensive players that make the pitcher that much better. Trading one of those players for a better pitcher is not smart baseball sense. to say Profar will take up the slack is a reach until he proves himself for an extended period of testing.

[bmcculloch21]

Definitely not afraid to offer my perspective on things even if it is sharp contrast to the consensus.


That stated while Price is a better pitcher than Greinke IMO he is not worth all those players and Beltre. In fact I wouldn't offer Ogando either. I stop and offer cash or another prospect.

Ogando is a good bull pen guy and Beltre is too clutch. Holland on the other hand needs to go somewhere else along with Cruz....

Texas needs to keep strong defensive players that make the pitcher that much better. Trading one of those players for a better pitcher is not smart baseball sense. to say Profar will take up the slack is a reach until he proves himself for an extended period of testing.

Just to be clear (because I know I wasn't and it's my fault), I was talking about Engel Beltre, the CF prospect. I think that might change how you feel about the trade offer dramatically.

[waveone]

Just to be clear (because I know I wasn't and it's my fault), I was talking about Engel Beltre, the CF prospect. I think that might change how you feel about the trade offer dramatically.

LOL.....yes, dramatically.

[bmcculloch21]

Today's stab in the dark: (what I WANT, not what we'll do)

Sign Grienke 7/175
Sign Hamilton 4/93
Sign Berkman 2/26

Trade Young for cash and top A-ball prospect
Trade Cruz for Dickey
Trade Perez, Grimm, L. Martin for Mauer and Buxton
Trade L. Garcia, Ross for Upton (through whatever team combo necessary)
Trade Olt, Ogando, Holland, E. Beltre, and Gallo for David Price

RF/DH/2B-Kinsler
SS/DH-Andrus
LF/DH-Hamilton
3B-Beltre
CF-Upton
C/DH-Mauer
1B/RF-Berkman
OF/DH-Gentry
2B/DH/SS-Profar

Price
Grienke
Darvish
Dickey
Harrison

Just made a couple of tweaks to my proposal.

[Jack of Blades]

even though they've lost out on zack greinke, the rangers still have interest in acquiring justin upton according to ken rosenthal of fox sports (on twitter). Jon heyman of cbssports.com says (on twitter) texas might also look into free agents anibal sanchez, michael bourn, and kyle lohse.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#zvw7r2rjbxlkr6sq.99

-mlbtr

[stipe1280]

-mlbtr

Saw that...

No thanks on Bourn or Lohse. I could live with Sanchez, due to the fact he's a ground ball type pitcher, though I don't see him as that much of an upgrade to the younger guys I would prefer go out there and get a chance to prove themselves (Perez especially).

A legit #1 or #1b makes sense, but I don't see Sanchez as much more than a #2b type even.

Overall, I'm not enthused with what's developed so far.

[Jack of Blades]

Saw that...

No thanks on Bourn or Lohse. I could live with Sanchez, due to the fact he's a ground ball type pitcher, though I don't see him as that much of an upgrade to the younger guys I would prefer go out there and get a chance to prove themselves (Perez especially).

A legit #1 or #1b makes sense, but I don't see Sanchez as much more than a #2b type even.

Overall, I'm not enthused with what's developed so far.

I would be ecstatic if we landed Hamilton, Bourn, and Upton.

[Cursed Rangers]

The silver lining (so far) of this off season is that we get to play the Astros so many times next year. That will be a big help in keeping our win total somewhat high.

Part of me wishes we would have been 10 games out of 1st at the All-Star break last summer. Could you imagine what we could have netted for Hamilton & Napoli, Adams, etc...